Unemployment rises to 14.9%


#625

The labour market - at least in urban areas - is now at full capacity.

Interestingly enough, jobseekers’ allowance (which is means tested) will be around €2.1bn this year, down from €3.1bn as recently in 2013.

It is still more than twice the level of 2007 - €0.96bn - and not a hope of it ever coming back near this.


#626

Thanks for the above post. It answered precisely the query I had about these figures.
I think the difference between the ‘unemployment rate’ and the ‘broad jobless rate’ is undermining public confidence in the statistics and politicians generally.


#627

My brother in law lost his job and was looking for a job for a year. He never registered as unemployed. How is he measured in the statistics? Same thing with a friend of mine, just lived off savings for a while.


#628

The unemployment rate is survey-based.

The CSO knocks on 30,000 doors a quarter and asks people if they are seeking work.

If they had knocked on your BIL’s door he would have said ‘yes’ and been included in the unemployment rate.

The live register is not a good measure of unemployment (and never was).


#629

…and if the CSO knocked on the door of the house with 57 tenants they would have been told nothing whatsoever about the occupants.


#630

Obviously the survey gets better responses from more conventional households.

They actually re-weight the results to take account of this to the extent that they can.


#631

Agree. You can be part-time/casual employed and still be entitled to benefits

QNHS is the best figure for unemployment but as it’s only quarterly, it’s handy to see Live Register figures monthly


#632

There is now a ‘monthly unemployment rate’ which is basically the quarterly survey number extrapolated forward used the trend in the Live Register.

I would really avoid using the raw Live Register for anything.


#633

April 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in April 2017 was 6.2% or 135,800, a monthly drop of -0.2% or -4,800.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 6.1%
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … april2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in April 2017 was 266,600, down -4,600 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 264,300.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … april2017/

There were 58,096 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in April 2017 which represents 22.1% of the total Live Register (was 64,336 in April 2016 or 21.1%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
March 2017 was 67,381 (March 2016 was 79,906)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 15.2%
[266,600 (April 2017)+ 67,381 (March 2017)/ 2,195,600 in Labour Force per QNHS Q4 2016]


#634

#635

#636

#637

finfacts.ie/Irish_finance_ne … l-rate-779

Irish broad unemployment rate at 15% in April 2017 vs 6% official rate

finfacts.ie/Irish_finance_ne … -range-781

ECB says broad rate of Eurozone unemployment in 15% - 18% range


#638

Great to see FinFacts still going strong. A great resource.


#639

#640

May 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in May 2017 was 6.4% or 140,700, a monthly drop of -0.0% or -1,200.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 6.1%
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ntmay2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in May 2017 was 264,700, down -2,200 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 264,300.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ermay2017/

There were 56,966 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in May 2017 which represents 21.7% of the total Live Register (was 63,818 in May 2016 or 20.8%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
April 2017 was 66,759 (April 2016 was 78,116)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 15.1%
[264,700 (May 2017)+ 66,759 (April 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q1 2017]


#641

First of all, TheJackal, I do appreciate you taking the time to track these numbers and post.

Numbers like 6.4% seem low, getting back on track to where things were in boom-times (without the preponderance of construction work we had at that time though?). But, the broader jobless figure of 15.1% seems high (albeit lower than an equivalent of 20.5 March 2015 for example, again, thank you for posting the data so consistently).

What’s your, or others’, view: do we have “low unemployment” now?


#642

Course not. As pointed out
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 15.1%
[264,700 (May 2017)+ 66,759 (April 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q1 2017]


#643

QNHS Q1 2017 stats are out
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … rter12017/

Additional info per Table 7…


#644

Employment has kind of grown as much as expected over the last few years.

Unemployment has fallen a lot more than expected.

Why?

The reason is that unemployment =(seeking employment)/(seeking employment + in employment)

Please note - the denominator is those in or seeking employment - not the population as a whole!!!

Usually, when employment grows in Ireland the number of people seeking employment grows too. Students don’t stay in education as long, people retire later, parents of young children seek part time work, etc.

Interestingly, this has not happened this time. Participation took a big dip in 2008-11 but has barely grown since. So unemployment looks a bit lower than it otherwise might.

Otherwise, unemployment in Ireland is actually now on the low side (slightly). If you look at the longest time series available - the OECD’s - unemployment has averaged I think something like 7% - 8% in Ireland since the 60s.