Unemployment rises to 14.9%


#645

Census: Limerick has highest number of unemployment blackspots

rte.ie/news/2017/0615/882979-census/


#646

Thank you for a profoundly and uncommonly useless post.
It’s also a funny one, since it seems to say I haven’t read the earlier posts, while also clearly demonstrating your own failure or inability to read.

As I had already pointed out, I’d read the earlier post, which I’d thanked for. I’d also demonstrated that I read it as I specifically referenced the figure:

after which you just parrot the same post I’ve clearly read :laughing:

I also went back through the thread to get a better sense of the trend. The headline unemployment number is clearly down, but the broad figure isn’t as easy for me to interpret, nor is at as well documented in this thread. It’s also not a figure that’s typically discussed much, so it’s harder to have a sense of what “normal”, “high”, “low” etc., are.

Anyway, thanks others for further discussion, and TheJackal for further stats (and sources of stats) to dig into…


#647

June 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in june 2017 was 6.3% or 139,400, a monthly drop of -0.1% or -900.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 6.1%
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … tjune2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in June 2017 was 259,200, down -4,800 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Oct 2008 when it was 264,300.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … rjune2017/

There were 56,337 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in June 2017 which represents 21.0% of the total Live Register (was 63,712 in June 2016 or 20.2%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
May 2017 was 58,226 (May 2016 was 70,040)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 14.5%
[259,200 (June 2017)+ 58,226 (May 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q1 2017]


#648

What has really been staggering is the fall in the number of long-term unemployed (>1 year). This peaked at 200k in 2012. I never thought that more than half this number would work again. Lengthy disengagement from the workplace is really damaging. Skills get lost and the psychological harm can be severe too.

To the surprise of most this number has now fallen over 60% to below 80k and is actually falling faster than the number of short-term unemployed.

At some point this will have to tail off as you get close to the really de-skilled and discouraged workers. But the trend is really encouraging.


#649

It would be interesting to see just how many of the “long term” unemployed actually returned to work, as opposed to emigrating, retiring or being moved onto another list.


#650

Exactly. I suspect going on Disability for say depression with no job takes you off the long term list.

Many new grads stuck it out for a year, couldn’t live off the under 26 lower dole payment, and emigrated


#651

July 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in July 2017 was 6.4% or 141,100, a monthly rise of +0.1% or +1,200.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … tjuly2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in July 2017 was 256,800, down -3,000 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Sep 2008 when it was 245,900.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … rjuly2017/

There were 55,247 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in July 2017 which represents 20.1% of the total Live Register (was 62,712 in July 2016 or 19.7%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
June 2017 was 53,279 (June 2016 was 62,517)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 14.1%
[256,800 (July 2017)+ 53,279 (June 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q2 2017]


#652

Thanks for the numbers.

Great to see the Activation numbers down significantly on 12-18 months ago.
It’s such a way to hide unemployment. It’ll never go to zero, but the closer that number gets to 35-40k over next year or two the better.

Do you think we’ll get to a Broad Jobless Rate of under 10%?
That’d be best case for Ireland I’d say. Below that there’s a lot of Can’t Work / Won’t Work and the unemployed in their 50s/60s?


#653

I’d say we’ll get below the 10% but not by much.

There is also damning evidence that the majority of those on Activation courses are not getting proper jobs afterwards


#654

The CE scheme is basically a covert subsidy to all sorts of community groups and charities up and down the country as it provides them with free labour.

BTEA is an extraordinarily generous scheme where a 21 year old can get dole with no conditions and pursue a four year degree course. It is also a covert subsidy to the universities and ITs. I know first hand of three people ‘strategically’ taking up a spell of unemployment in order to qualify, although the spell of unemployment has to be a bit longer now than it used to be.


#655

I’d a housemate who worked full time for min wage in Specsavers 2 years ago. Got 17K (I nearly fell over when I saw her contract), 20 days leave, full 35 hour week.

By going unemployed for 9 months she would be entitled to full dole for 4 years of her degree, degree also fully paid for, and rent allowance…


#656

August 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in August 2017 was 6.4% or 139,100, a monthly rise of -0.1% or -1,700.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ugust2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in August 2017 was 248,500, down -7,300 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Sep 2008 when it was 245,900.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ugust2017/

There were 53,643 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in August 2017 which represents 20.3% of the total Live Register (was 61,346 in July 2016 or 19.4%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
July 2017 was 52,607 (July 2016 was 53,279)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 13.7%
[248,500 (August 2017)+ 52,607 (July 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q2 2017]


#657

September 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in September 2017 was 6.1% or 133,200, a monthly fall of -0.0% or -200.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ember2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in September 2017 was 249,200, down -300 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Sep 2008 when it was 245,900.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ember2017/

There were 51,992 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in September 2017 which represents 21.3% of the total Live Register (was 59,585 in September 2016 or 20.8%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
August 2017 was 51,065 (August 2016 was 58,860)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 13.7%
[249,200 (September 2017)+ 51,992 (August 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q2 2017]


#658

October 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in October r 2017 was 6.0% or 131,300, a monthly fall of -0.1% or -1,800.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … tober2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in October 2017 was 246,900, down -2,400 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Sep 2008 when it was 245,900.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … tober2017/

There were 51,290 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in October 2017 which represents 21.7% of the total Live Register (was 59,388 in October 2016 or 21.5%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
September 2017 was 57,919 (September 2016 was 65,276)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 13.9%
[246,900 (October 2017)+ 57,919 (September 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q2 2017]


#659

November 2017 Live Register/Unemployment Rate

The seasonally adjusted Unemployment rate in November 2017 was 6.1% or 138,100, a monthly fall of -0.2% or -3,400.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ember2017/

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in November 2017 was 244,300, down -2,600 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Aug 2008 when it was 233,900.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ember2017/

There were 51,344 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in November 2017 which represents 22.0% of the total Live Register (was 59,643 in November 2016 or 21.8%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
October 2017 was 60,883 (October 2016 was 70,878)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 13.9%
[244,300 (November 2017)+ 60,883 (October 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q2 2017]


#660

I had a quick look back on jackals posts

Feb-15 20.5 Mar-15 20.3 Apr-15 20.4 May-15 20.3 Jun-15 19.9 Oct-15 18.7 Nov-15 18.1 Dec-15 18.8 Jan-16 18.6 Feb-16 18.4 Mar-16 18.3 Apr-16 18.1 May-16 18 Jun-16 17.4 Jul-16 16.8 Aug-16 16.3 Sep-16 15.9 Oct-16 16 Nov-16 16.1 Dec-16 16 Jan-17 15.8 Feb-17 15.7 Mar-17 15.5 Apr-17 15.2 May-17 15.1 Jun-17 14.5 Jul-17 14.1 Aug-17 13.7 Sep-17 Oct-17 13.9 Nov-17 13.9


#661

December 2017 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in December 2017 was 241,300, down -2,900 monthly.
This is the lowest rate since Aug 2008 when it was 233,900.
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ember2017/

There were 51,159 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in December 2017 which represents 21.7% of the total Live Register (was 59,908 in December 2016 or 21.7%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:
November 2017 was 63,557 (November 2016 was 71,829)

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.
Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 44,174 in Aug 2009; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:
If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 13.9%
[241,300 (December 2017)+ 63,557 (November 2017)/ 2,191,400 in Labour Force per QNHS Q2 2017]


#662

I see CSO are bringing out a new Labour Force Survey (replacing the QNHS) for Q3 2017 onwards later this month

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … tatistics/


#663

QNHS Q3 2017 stats are out
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … rter32017/

The QNHS has been revised and will now be called the Labour force Survey (LFS)
cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pres … rter32017/


Additional info per Table 7…

Interestingly, Unemployment peaked at 15.9% back in Q3 2011, higher than the reported 15.2% peak under the old QNHS methodology


#664

Financial penalties for jobseekers over lack of engagement rise
Sanctions for jobseekers ‘not engaging’ increased from 1,519 in 2012 to 16,451 last year
irishtimes.com/news/politic … -1.3364648

The usual populists out to defend the non-working man. There is nothing FF won’t support if there are potentially votes in it as their leader showed last week.