US: The next wave

[yoganmahew]

calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008 … aults.html

From Vikas Bajaj at the NY Times: Housing Lenders Fear Bigger Wave of Loan Defaults (hat tip Jasper)

The first wave of Americans to default on their home mortgages appears to be cresting, but a second, far larger one is quickly building.

Homeowners with good credit are falling behind on their payments in growing numbers, even as the problems with mortgages made to people with weak, or subprime, credit are showing their first, tentative signs of leveling off after two years of spiraling defaults.

I think the second wave of foreclosures will be smaller in numbers, as compared to the largely subprime first wave, but the price of each home will be much higher. And the second wave will impact prices in the mid-to-high end areas, as opposed to the subprime foreclosures impacting prices in the low end areas.

No area is immune.