Value of all the property in Ireland

I did a quick calculation, All the property for sale on daft (80k) multiplied by the average house price (€350k) comes to €28 Billion.
Most of what is on daft is not destined for NAMA but it gives a scale to measure against. (big numbers are crazy)

Is the hole in the commercial property loan book and speculative sites over 3 times larger than all the residential property for sale in the country?
Or
How bad is my maths?

Could a Mod Change the “I” in Ireland to Caps Please,

Maybe you forgot the hope value. Or ‘entrepreneurial premium’

I had considered that, anything above 20% margin falls under “The Goudging Bastard Premium”

I would have expected the value of the residential market to be roughly equal to the value Commercial market.

How many holes in other countries are we underwriting or do we have ~150k empties desperately waiting for buyers? (but not on Daft)

Housing !

350k a unit is la la la tra la la la la money .

assume average 200k per unit now ( and falling by the day ) x 1.95m units and the value of the whole lot is €390bn

Just to nit pick but the (relativately useless) Halifax index in the UK says the average price here is £160k.

Assuming Irish property is worth about 30% less (a generous assumption, -50% nearer the mark) that would put the average Irish property at about £110k or about €130k.

Sometimes I think even Pinsters just dont get how out of whack Ireland is/was.

Ah them were the days. The wealth of the nation report. XX

Download this report and mentally file it to remember when you are ever approached by a banking investment advisor.

rapidshare.com/files/264165539/W … uly_06.pdf

Yeah but, like, our incomes are higher :smiley:

:smiley:

I deliberately picked a large number for average value. because that is what banks and builders have in their heads.
My question is Why is the size of the bailout for NAMA 90 billion and the value of all the property for sale on Daft 30% of that.
Or
Using 2 packs numbers, the size of the NAMA Bailout is 25% of the total value of residential property in Ireland.

I cannot reconcile those numbers. The NAMA bailout looks too large.

I punted that number for the value of housing ( today) but I did not make an estimate for commercial( retail and office) or development land in addition to that …some of it is worth something like that Glass Bottle site. Then again the greatest bubble in Japan was in Commercial …at the peak of the bubble you could have bought all the land in CALIFORNIA for the price of the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo.

The NAMA bailout is a lot less than 25% of all of that right now but could end up as more than all of that were we to go 'Japanese’ .

NAMA is an attempt at not going Japanese , not a very good one mind :frowning:

I think the average wage in Uk and Ireland is similar 32kstg Uk - 38keuro ireland so if the current uk average price of 160K is on trend and there is a nice graph on housepricecrash.co.uk which suggests it is then 160k by 1.15 would get you to euro184k for irish property. Adjust for falling wages and settle at 175k ( peak was 311k in feb 2007 ) multiply by 1.95m and we get c 340bn. If commercial is the same ( big assumption) then 680bn is our total . From the peak circa 530bn has disappeared from our perceived wealth. 90bn doesnt sound like it is enough .

On this topic, and an interesting exercise on a wet saturday. Look up your local area and count the number of properties for sale over half a million euro ( a hell of a lot of money if you have to work and earn it)

Clare for example, we have 184 properties over half a mill. Because only a small percentage (assume 5%) of houses are for sale at any one time there may be 20 times more houses in clare ‘worth’ more than half a million.

3680 homes in a county with a population of 100k.

Gas isn’t it.
daft.ie/searchsale.daft?s%5B … _type=sale

0.3% per annum is a number CFT mentioned for property tax …

390Bn times 0.3% is 1.17bn per annum. In theory its a rising annuity :wink: so maybe present value is factor of 40 ?

Is the cost of NAMA equal to the revenue from property tax ( for ever) ?

I’ve thrown it up here: scribd.com/doc/19500717/We-A … rt-July-06

The commission on taxation says that

1.2m of the housing stock is worth 150-300k
.15m is worth under 150k
.5m is worth over 300k

They did not value local authority stock

taxcommission.ie/downloads/C … 202009.pdf

page 176

They used 2004 valuations to arrive at these figures when 2002 would have been more appropriate .

Valuation band No. of houses
A 0 - 150,000 140,000
B 150,001 - 300,000 1,165,000
C 300,001 - 450,000 330,000
D 450,001 - 600,000 120,000
E 600,001 - 750,000 30,000
F 750,001 - 1,000,000 11,000
G 1,000,001 -1,500,000 2,000
H 1,500,001 and higher 1,000