Well worth watching:
chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
Other videos previously posted and highly recommended:
The Austrian economic boom bust cycle
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic … 8157#88157
The exponential function
thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?t=2679
Just watched the crash course, very interesting stuff. At least we are in the Euro, but as far as I am aware it is a Fiat currency, which seems to very conservatively managed thankfully.
Unfortunately I think we are more screwed than the US in all the other things he talks about bar maybe the baby boomers. Our Baby boomers( The Popes Children) wont’ be retiring for another 30 to 40 years
That’s the majority of posters here, and there won’t be retirement at 65 for us, if we are fit and able to work. There also won’t be the resources to support us in retirement from current expenditure like these is today.
Also a significant number of people (especially women) in the current working population have no provision for future retirement.
For those caught on the wrong side of this bust, their chances to provide an adequate pension for the future are diminised. You will observe the same trend with people who got caught in the '80s recession and are coming to retirement now, their pension provisions are meagre.
Interesting indeed. If we apply the bubbles video to Ireland what do we get?
50% down peak to trough on house prices? Perhaps some overshoot.
My question is, if he is saying the US housing bubble began in 1998 and peaked in 06/07, and will go back to normal around 2015… if we apply the same measures to Ireland, when will we see a return to normal?
I guess I’m asking when the bubble started, when it peaked (autumn 06 it seems), and when we will go back to normal.
You could make an argument that the upward part of the economic cycle began in 1988 (1987 being the bottom) and finished in 2006 and the bubble itself did not start until 1995/1996. (seePTSB 10 year index), however due to the recession that proceeded it, property was very under valued and was only reverting to the mean at that stage. I would say the bubble started in earnest when the banks changed the lending criteria in 2001, combined with the super low interest rates + government incentives like section 23.
Tha would put the bottom of the house price cycle somewhere between 2011/2016.
I would say the upswing started in 1982 and that there was a blip in 1987 .
I agree with all the rest of it from 1995 onwards and I still say bottom October 2011
But how big a bottom do you have?
Parts B & C added
Haven’t seen this elsewhere - there are a few links to bits of Crash Course - but you can download, redistribute, sell and/or give as presents (odd looks guaranteed!) the whole of Crash Course:
Why: chrismartenson.com/distribut … ourse-dvds
How: chrismartenson.com/make-your … ourse-dvds
Martenson summarizes some interesting info. over on The Market Oracle
marketoracle.co.uk/Article10389.html
First time he has posted there this year, a few interesting articles from him back in '07/'08
marketoracle.co.uk/UserInfo- … enson.html
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you can download ISO mount from pirate bay, this program will burn the image of the program to the DVD…