Viewing Highly Recommended - The Introductions Thread


#1

I think we should do an introduction for the new site as we may be a mixture of ex-aam users and new punters. :slight_smile:

**Name: **Arthur Daley
**Age **32
House buying status: 1st time buyer 2005
**AAM status: **Now an Occasional visitor still with all my post count. :astonished:
**View on an Irish property crash: **If prices fall 20% they’ll fall 50%. Expect a major fight from VI’s to prevent the situation getting beyond 15-20% price falls.
**Timeline for crash: **The average punter will be in no doubt the rot has set in by St. Patricks day.
**Where would I buy property: **London


#2

Name: The Unwelcome Guest (“TUG” for short)

Age: 27 of your earth years

House Buying Status: On a flip of a coin between emigration and settling here for good. Just back from a round the world trip and am very tempted to say sod it all to the old sod.

AAM Status: Lurked very occasionally, never registered.

View on Irish Property: Expecting city centre prices to fall back to 2005 and remain stable. Expecting price corrections of major order (probably in the region of 20% reduction on 2005 prices) in undesirable locations, commuter belt and especially in the commuter counties.

Timeline for Price Correction: 3rd / 4th Quarter 2007

Where would I buy property: Anywhere I could transfer my earning power and get the right combination of infrastructure, amenities, climate and culture. Currently investigating Canada and New Zealand. Would ideally like a little place in Ushuaia, Argentina someday! :wink:


#3

Name: Johnboy

Age 34

House buying status: Live abroad but bought first in 2000 in London.

AAM status: Visit occasionally and post even less so.

View on an Irish property crash: Difficult to say as I live overseas but I think that an accross the board 10% to 15% drop is probably inevitable; but far flung commuterland could fall twice as much.

Timeline for crash: It could take at least 6 months for price falls to become commonplace but the crash (if it happens) will probably play itself out over a two year period at least.

Where would I buy property: As an asset class property is pretty over-cooked no matter where you look. I am hoarding cash at the moment.


#4

Name: Steve
Age 28
House buying status: Considered it for the last 2 years but felt there was too much risk. I’m holding out.
AAM status: Lurker (I would be afraid to post there)
View on an Irish property crash: Inevitable. I think most places are overvalued by at least 35%.
Timeline for crash: I think people are starting to freak out already.
Where would I buy property: In two years time for a home rather than an investment- West Mayo - Galway.


#5

26 YO
Beleive property in general will fall 40% peak to trough. Some properties will fall more some less.


#6

Age 33
House buying status: NOt till yields are 10%
AAM status: Ocasional
View on an Irish property crash: Fall till yields return to 10% then slowly creep up till they normalise at 7% or 8%
Timeline for crash: No idea
Where would I buy property: South of France or Germany


#7

Name:Bullybear

Age:28

House Buying Status:
Need to buy for personal reasons but will wait for at least 2-3 years.
AAM:
Reviewed with sceptical interest but never posted. A lurket I suppose.

**View on Crash:**Ireland going japanese. Yields must go from 2.5 /3 to 5 or 6%. Any correction will reduce rents (I think) as contagion will spread across the economy. Immigration will slow if not reverse. Thus a 50% fall seems reasonable and I wouldn’t rule out worse. Ireland will be lecture material in 10 years time for the inherent problems of the Eurozone.

Timeline:6-9 months from now serious pain will start. Giveaway budgets will delay it. The market will not pick up for a decade.
Where to buy:Unlike most here i think Eastern Europe if one knows the local market will outperform the rest of the Western world over the next decade. If I had to call i would say Poland. Polish work ethic will ein through. (if sober). Still as an asset class property should be avoided unless sprogs are on the way.

**Interests:**Economic History. Trading/Speculating. Yes I am boring!


#8

Name: Green Bear
Age: 34
House buying status: Happy to rent. I move where the work is.
AAM status: Voyeur
View on an Irish property crash: It can’t be prevented, the current price levels are unsustainable and overvalued and our dependency on construction financed by debt is shocking.
**Timeline for crash: **Spread out over at least five years starting 2007
Where would I buy property: Sicily, though, if this global warming thingie takes off I’d settle for Kerry with a mediterranean climate and a broadband connection.


#9

Keep the intros coming kids!

Hey OW! Where’s yourn! :wink:


#10

Name: Anonymous
Age: 33
House buying status: Need to buy for personal reasons
AAM status: Won’t be going back after their purge
Timeline for crash: Expect the public to realise in Q2/Q3 2007. Prices will still be falling in 2010.
Where would I buy property: Estonia possibly - sensible free market government, rule of law, educated population, strong history of democracy and stability before USSR takeover. Miles away from the Bulgarian train wreck.


#11

Everybody is encouraged to keep posting intros, as much or as little detail as you like but please try and keep on topic, thks!

Such requests of TPP staff (who volunteer their time freely) & future posts will be deleted & you shall be banned!!!

:wink:


#12

I can fill it in for you, if you’d like! 8)


#13

Name: Sidewinder

Age 33

House buying status: Happy to rent

AAM status: Occassional poster on the monster thread. Still drop in to push bearish sentiment where I can get away with it :slight_smile:

View on an Irish property crash: Already begun.

Timeline for crash: The herd will start panicking by March 07. 40% nominal falls over next 2 years, stagnation for another 6-7 years after that. 2012 might be a good time to buy up everything in sight :slight_smile:

Where would I buy property: Galway City…or Krakow


#14

Name: Whizzbang

Age: 28

Renting on and off for the last few years due to work related travel. Been a bear for 4 years or so (guess I should have bought then), main reason for not buying :“I can’t afford to buy anywhere I want to live”

I expect a return to 2001 price levels plus inflation, so 50% to 40%. Plan to buy on the upswing (after the dead cat bounce) the main aim is to 2 places, one to live and one to rent when yields are decent. Then sell rental place once the second boom hits in 2015 give or take (given todays large number of babies/kids) and pay off mortgage on 1st place!

lets see how that goes…


#15

Name: Dipole

Age: 35

House Buying Status: Bought 4 years ago. Not moving anytime soon and mortgage payments are comfortable.

AAM:
Occasional poster over 4 to 5 years.
Banned for a week(posted to a thread about sharp practices by Estate Agents stating as matter of fact that public perception of agents actions would have an adverse effect on sentiment to the property market) then banned forever after I posted to a thread about moderators shaping threads by deleting posts including mine that they didn’t like. My post was factual stating that my posts had been deleted and that I wouldn’t be posting on AAM ever again so they banned me.

View on Crash:
We’re living on borrowed time. Has to happen. Needs to happen. Another .75% interest rate rise will be the final nail in the coffin. .5% rise is guaranteed. Already seeing people struggling to pay their mortgages and less activity in the local shopping centre.

Timeline:
6 months more tops but can be disguised by government and VIs for a few months after that.

Interests: Many and diverse.


#16

Name: Calina aged 34.

I don’t own a house because despite earning noticeably more than the average, I can’t actually afford anything closer than 90 minutes from work. So I rent.

Will the property market crash? Probably. Given that most of the time I’ve been back in this country for the past x number of years, the rationale for buying property has been “I’ll get priced out if I don’t buy that one and only thing I can afford in a location which is totally and utterly inconvenient to the rest of my life” and or “if you don’t get on the ladder you’ll never get on the ladder” and “property is better than a pension” and “property will never go down in Ireland” and above all else “it’s different here”, I feel that the market is somewhat irrationally exuberant. Can’t go on. When the market participants will see sense is open to debate. If they had any cop on at all they’d have seen it three years ago. There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch.

AAM: I posted on various fora, specifically property related. I was a regular participant in the gargantuan thread the sum of which appeared in today’s Irish Times. I don’t have a lot of time for the site of late - some of the participants are very helpful, but the moderation is, I feel, overly forceful.

Where to buy? Convenient to where you work/have a life. Personally I live ten minutes from work, twenty minutes from my swimming pool and twenty five minutes from where I spend most of my time in the summer. All told, I don’t think I do too badly. I’d buy there if I had a chance. Meanwhile I don’t see the point in buying hours from those places.

I’m not the person to ask for advice on getting rich because I don’t think money is the sole measure of a person’s worth. I’ve never measured other people by their financial worth, but by how happy they are in what they are doing with their life.


#17

Name: B.B.

Age: 25

House buying status: Previous owner - sold in March 2006. Currently renting and between fuel savings due to being able to live nearer to work and due to not needing various insurances and also rent is cheaper than mortgage! In process of moving to Australia - debating this in my head with staying here and going back to college !

AAM status: Permanently Banned. they even went and banned an Ip address I used once now a friend of mine cant access that website lol

View on an Irish property crash: BANG!

Timeline for crash: Depends on your definition of Crash. Its happening but people cant hear it.

Where would I buy property: Preferably by the sea … with sea views oh oh and near mountains and a big forest :slight_smile:

Interests: Hiking with my dogs, music (play guitar)


#18

Age: 35

House buying status: Sold PPR to rent (cashed in & took the risk/cash!)- I own several properties abroad bought 5-8yrs ago.

AAM status: Still look everyday but it’s not as good as it used to be! - over moderated.

View on an Irish property crash: Overpriced & bad value - many inexperienced buyers getting in WAY over their head. Banks still lending too much to people who are getting themselves in a deep hole. Stubborn investors wont exit the market until its too late - too greedy!

Timeline for crash: Started already . I reckon 30% down by dec 2007.

Where would I buy property: Still value in Estonia/Germany/Spain - but long term - people should not expect a repetition of the Celtic Tiger - its a one off- many arrogant fools got rich in the last 5-10yrs in Ireland because property was ‘foolproof’- the same fools will loose it all.

Interests: skiing, music , work (im an EA - 15 yrs exp.)


#19

Welcome Murray.

An EA you say? Open Window will be very excited at that! :stuck_out_tongue:


#20

Oh I am I am !!! nice to see you MO… good to see an EA tellin’ it like it is for a change.

Probably one of those walks of life were you meet all those other walks of life eh, bit like a Politician except its ok to take some money off them for your services :wink:

Look foward to future anlysis and posts…