Perhaps this is best answered in a separate forum but when you get a chance could you provide us with a little rental market update?
Will do, its a big and getting bigger market tho@ !
House buying status: Have owned a great-value holiday house in Kerry since 2004. Moved there last year. Looking at the sea as I type.
AAM status: Was a fan until I went looking for housing market info a year ago. The contentious locked thread directed me to the Pin for which I’ll be forever grateful. Have been lurking here since.
View on an Irish property crash: It will get worse. Consensus even in the media now is 20% and I’m starting to see 25% mentioned in the papers. 50% by 2010 would not surprise me. Think maybe it’s necessary but people I love will be caught out so I hope I’m wrong.
But the property market is the least of my worries now, it’s looking like global financial Armageddon out there, I’m thinking of getting some hens, growing vegetables and learning to fish. And maybe building a bunker and buying a shotgun.
Timeline for crash: Ha ha ha you’re joking. It’s going to be a long, long time.
Where would I buy property: Would not buy anywhere as an investment, but if I ever have the money I’d love to have my own place in Rome.
Occupation: Software engineer.
Interests: The Irish language and…most things are interesting really. I’m not interested in keeping up with the Joneses though. Or living in Dublin… God! The M50!
Age 24 (Am I the youngest here?)
Occupation: Small business owner.
House buying status: Living with Mammy for the past year after returning home from 2 years travel. Ready to buy with the lady but after a few months research, I think I’ll wait (rent) it out.
AAM status: Occasional post. More interested in the investment advice and savings best buys. Seem like a right uptight crew though.
**View on an Irish property crash: **For selfish reasons, I really hope there is a VERY sharp decline in Dublin house prices in the next two years. For my friends that bought this year, I hope they are not ruined. I am completely new to all this although I have been lurking here for a few weeks, so my opinion/view is pretty much useless.
Timeline for crash: As above.
Where would I buy property: Would love to buy in Dublin (northside) but not now, I’m young but not stupid. Considering going travelling for another few years to come back to a housing market that has not lost it’s mind.
House Buying Status: Still pouring lots of dead money into my greedy landlord’s pocket
AAM: Not a fan
View on Crash: The best is yet to come.
Timeline: Hard to say. Think it will be very difficult for the market to recover, especially when the other EU states open the borders to the newest members and migrant workers will leave.
Pin status: Long time lurker.
About me:Immigant. Although I’ve been here for 11 years I still can’t get my head around the difference in both price and value. For 300k you’d literally get a beautifully built mansion with passive heating and a big garden ‘back home’. Here - well,
Age: 30 this year - time to party!
House Buying Status: Renting with bf and friends. Would like to buy but only in the right area for the right price. Maybe in the next year(s) to come we’ll find one.
AAM: Never read it
View on Crash: What crash? (Joking) - Reckon people are still in denial
Pin status: I’m a regular reader for the last year or so… I’m a bit of an addict to be honest, some really smart and intelligent posters here!
About me: Moved to Ireland for the love of my life 5 years ago, was shocked at housing prices then, and am still now… Inlaws been wanting us to buy but we’re not ready to commit to such a crazy sized loan for a shoebox. My friends boss took the plunge a couple years back and is apparently living on rice just to keep up with the mortgage payments! Where’s the fun in that? Sorry about the rant, I’m just baffled at how the property market got to such a craziness and how some people were willing to put themselves in such a tough position just to “get on the property ladder”.
Longtime lurker on the site - finally decided to post! Just want to say thanks to you all for the insights and humour (you have to laugh at the Irish property market or you’ll cry…). This site has been like my private support-group over the past couple of years!
House buying status: Renting just over 2 years …with partner + 2 kids (since returning home from USA)… now very glad we resisted popular & family pressure to buy in 2006!
Home buying status:
- No plans to buy any time soon until the madness subsides (judging by the level of denial this could take some years yet).
- “Voted with my feet” and sold my own FTB Dublin home (which had turned investment property while we were abroad - bought in 2000) last April 07. Banked the equity as deposit for some future purchase. Got the asking price a year ago - another source of great relief, as I’d get about 20% less now.
- Also sold a Florida home last year - got out by the skin of our teeth as a neighbour’s house is currently asking 40% less than we got (no that’s not a typo - 40%… forclosure auctions are a big thing over there these days!).
AAM status: very infrequent browser - mainly to look for specific info like best deposit interest rates. Think their ban on property values discussion is pretty sad… as when you Ask any Irish person About Money all they ever talk about is property!!
View on the Irish property crash: It will be long, painful, and possibly quite scary (jobs impact, our lack of competitiveness coming back to bite us etc). Lack of real data on the market is delaying the crash considerably (feeds denial).
Timeline: If only I had a crystal ball! Resigning myself that it may now take up to 5 years from now - we are at least 18 months behind the US, and the real drops are only happening there now.
Where would I buy: within a 5 minute radius of where I currently live (south dublin suburb, so not cheap, but getting better as the months pass).
Thank you all again!
Name: Three Quarks
House buying status: Purchased a deceptively spacious 2-bed house in the city centre in 2001 (the space has proven deceptive alright). We 3 (my wife, young boy and I), while very contented, are growing out of our PPR, but cannot see a bigger/better option becoming affordable any time soon. There will be a lot of people on similar baselines to us with a resultant squeeze on good 3/4-beds within 3 miles of O’ Connell Bridge.
Home buying status:
The snob in me would favour a solid three-storey with a sea view in Sandymount, but I would settle for the leafier parts of Clontarf My future reality will probably be a 3-bed in an improving area (always improving!) like Cabra, or a semi-d in a less mondo part of Greater Castleknock. I currently live in D7, and if my biggest complaint is that the Luas is always full when it gets to my stop, I guess I have little to be complaining about.
AAM status: I’d sooner watch Ireland AM.
View on the Irish property crash: Wailing, gnashing of teeth, sauve qui peut.
Timeline: I have called the top wrong so often, I would sooner forbear. But I have a feeling that the immediate future will see rather more need of pawnbrokers balls than crystal balls.
In any event, the Talmud tells that after the death of the last prophet, Malachi, the gift of prophecy passed to children and fools. I am assuredly no child…
Where would I buy: Near the Phoenix Park. Castleknock, preferably.
This is my truth, tell me yours,
Age: At my age my father could afford a house, a wife and two children on one reasonable salary. How the times have changed.
House buying status: Renting with gf and friends. Would like to buy but only for the right price.
AAM status: I follow links from the Pin to AAM but thats about it.
View on the Irish property crash: Given our lack-of-leadership I expect it will be very unpleasant indeed
Timeline: I pray for a short sharp correction that would return the market to normal and get the economy moving again. But at the moment I’m expecting/dreading a long-drawn-out beans-on-toast-for-the-next-decade Japanese-style deflation. The horror…the horror.
Where would I buy: Anywhere within 3 miles or so of the city centre so that I could cycle into town.
A longtime lurker on the site - its like watching a train accident in slow motion - I can’t not watch!
House buying status: Holding out for reasonable prices (and to have a nice deposit saved up)
AAM status: Had a look and it lead me here…so it can’t be all bad!
View on the Irish property crash: The Irish mentality is unreal, people can’t accept they paid over the odds. Hopefully the recent mortage developments will speed things up.
Timeline: See above.
Where would I buy: Hometown in North Co. Dublin
Occupation: IT Engineer
House buying status: Had a sale agreed (with mortgage and everything done) but the seller had to opt out due to personal reason - so continue tp rent until the next dream propoerty (3 bed, garden, private, fair and reasonable price) comes along
AAM Status: Looking at the location, location, location threads as I moved to Dublin/Ireland only two years ago
View on property crash: Still see it continuing to go down as most EA’s are in denial phase. But Irish market not comparable with continental Europe / esp Germany, Austria so prices IMO will always be higher than there.
Where would I buy: If it was for retiring than the cottage at the West Coast. But as long as I need a job it is somewhere near the Dart in Dublin.
Welcome aboard NI
Can you explain what you mean by the above?
Do you think the fundamentals of the Irish economy (we got “rich” by selling each other houses) is stronger than the German one for example.
In Austria and Germany, main market in the cities and for the majority of people is still renting. E.g., City of Vienna is owning and letting 220.000(!) flats to the general public. This keeps rents low.
People who buy a property (regardless of flat, house) tend to stay there literally “forever”, that game of trading up/down every 5 years or so does not exist, more or less. Hence the market for 2nd hand properties is relatively small. In addition, you wouldn’t see developers building huge estates with hundreds of houses - it usually is apartment blocks or a small group of terraced homes. People who decide to buy a house tend to buy a piece of land and build themselves, people who buy a flat (because buying a house would be too expensice) usually do so to live there and not for investment purposes. And if you decide to rent until you die this is perfectly ok as well (no social pressure on buying). (Of course: talking about “usually” here.
So it has not so much todo with stronger economy but merely with the focus of society.
Hence I was not surprised to see that report showing house prices in Ireland are 30% over European average but 5% below in Austria - because it is very hard to sell a 2nd hand home as the market is very small. ’
And I just can’t see that this will change in near future: Irish people just tend to buy and trade up every 5-10 years or so. That creates a much more active market and therefore higher prices.
Of course just my opinion being neither a property market expert or economist (And tried to squeeze too much in too little). Anyway, if I am wrong and it turns out to be totally different in 5 years: well, learnt something then
Been lurking for a while, thought it was time to join in.
Sold house in commuter belt in Jan 2007, renting a lot closer in and waiting to buy. I’m patient
O yeah, and David Mac is God!
Age: ‘In the region of’ 40
House buying status: Sold first house in inner city Dublin 2005, moved around couple of years due to husband’s job moves, now settled and renting in Midlands. Waiting for detached family home with large garden to come on the market within our budget, being fussy due to falling market. Have become a property-watching junkie as a result.
AAM status: Have used it in the past for advice on house buying issues, received an ‘infarction’ and had my posts deleted about discussing house prices so have taken umbrage.
Timeline: Think the worst is still to come.
Occupation: Sales Manager
AAM Status: I lurk a little- I do not like the pompous attitude of teh mods especially Brendan
PIN Status: Best web site re housing ever- some great advice
House buying status: Sold in in Kildare in April '07 after buying in August 00 9We got out at the last minute methinks)- been looking at houses in Nth Co Galway since May- none selling- none being reduced in price- want to buyt and I am hoping Joe Duffy did the trick yesterday!
Crash length: Going to be a long one- especially now mrtgages are harder to get/you have to have 8% deposit minimum and rates are going UP independently of ECB- now how come we can see all this yet the developers can’t??
married, looked at first potential buy back in Jan 06, did the math, thought “what the F***!” did lots of googling, convinced wife that country was gone mad and i have been a property bubble watcher since.
live in kilkenny, the level of denial here is as strong as %100 columbian.
historically the two biggest employers here were the mental hospital and the brewery so that might help explain the delusion. there may be an attempt to medicate the populice, am watching the water carefully.
plenty of empties around, will get pictures.
AAM: bored professionals filling in time answering questions from people who need to be led. it has been of some use to me but it mostly annoys me.
Wollies: it is truely addictive and scary, i’m surprised there hasn’t been a recipe for boiled rabbit on it yet.
future: thinking of building to suit needs, have business idea that needs room and there’s no shortage of that down here, just shortage of planning permission, i reckon that will change as needs change. ownership is not a priority in life, if things get really dreary like the 80’s i’d rather emigrate for sanity sake.
timeline: don’t see japanese style lost decade as thankfully our government don’t control the ecb. reckon 2011 and 2012 might be when it becomes sensible to buy again.
PIN status, love it, allow a bit of glee, you’re not saints and it’s not like you all haven’t tried to talk sense to sheeple. i try on a daily basis but there’s litterly no where else to let it out.
RTE status: got rid of TV after that episode of I’m an adult get me out of here where the guy almost pulled out of buying because he saw “future shock” but then was talked around to signing his life away. RTE was a baby sitter, now it’s the nanny sitter and i refuse to pay for exploitive advertisement parading as public service.
Welcome aboard, catbear… I think we’ve every type of bear on the 'Pin now, except for CAREBEARS! Where is the love people???
Age 40 to 50
House buying status: Renter
**AAM status: ** Only follow links from the Pin. The ban on property discussion is to their huge and curious discredit.
**View on an Irish property crash: ** Sad. Someone independent has to do a paper ( ) on the contributing factors and assess how it could have been avoided. Headings for discussion could include:
-Lack of verifiable market information;
-Lack of balance (putting it mildly) in government and media pronouncements. Conclusions will be drawn on vested interest bias, irresponsibility, laziness and ignorance.
-Role of regulatory bodies in controlling lending practices;
-Impact of tax system in distorting markets eg stamp duty relief on new properties, mortgage interest relief, taxation incentives for holiday homes and regeneration areas. Paradoxically, while stamp duty relief on new properties may have helped cause the bubble, the applicability to second hand properties may be helping to burst the bubble since it must discourage moving and entry to the market.
-Failure of strategic and local systems to create infrastructure capable of supporting long term property values in peripheral locations- eg pavements, schools and transport.
-Migration: The role of the property boom in creating demand for demand for immigration, which itself reinforced and fed the property boom beast, until such time as the process reversed with opposite results.
-OH! and interest rates and credit crunch of course. But I’ve put this last and as an afterthought because my core sugestion is that these things do happen and that the system has not been resilient enough to cope. If there might be a tornado, you build your house of bricks.
Timeline for crash: I wish I knew. I was under extreme pressure from Mrs Bluesberry to buy but she now sees me as a property genius and is happy to tell others as well!! Don’t know how long this position can be sustained- nominally falling prices are one thing, but falling real prices against inflation are another. I suspect prices will bottom out nominally in about a year to be followed by ‘real’ price erosion for as long as it takes …
Where would I buy property: At this moment, nowhere that I know of. I’m too spooked. Made the decision to rent for another year and will revisit figures in about 9 months.
AAM Status: use it very regularily
PIN Status: lurking for past 15 months or more. The Glee-factor sometimes gets to me, as do the ‘wow, it could drop to 1957 price levels’. We seem to trawl through papers and chatboards for items to fit our opinions, and scoff at anything resembling a positive article.
Believe it or not lots of houses sell every day of the week. Each one has a buyer. Its all about the perception of value in the price you pay, not the actual price.
Forensic and time consuming analysis of individual dropping prices is of no use to anyone. Weekly or monthly high-level figures are more accurate and give a better spread.
The totals part of the weekly IPW report is excellent.
Animal status: As you can see, I’m neither bear nor bull. Maybe I represent a new type of Pin poster - All the tin-foil hats were taken, so I’ve got to be a new type: a voice of reason!
Yes, prices have further to drop, but lets not lose the run of ourselves.
House buying status: owner, investor
Crash length: not bothered either way. Would probably trade up if things were to go silly-buggers, or the figures added up for a Buy2Let.