What does a no deal Brexit actually mean for Irish property?


#1

Just as above - anyone care to make a prediction as to what this actually means? Murmurings amongst EAs I know of very little activity and they’re putting it down to uncertainty about Brexit.
Anyone care to look into the crystal ball and say what no deal will mean?


#2

What’s your own prediction @Glasnevinuser, and why?


#3

+10% high end of the market (€1000k+)
No impact elsewhere


#4

I wish I knew. I don’t have a clue. At the moment I can see how the uncertainty is stalling buyers but come next March??? Or whenever is clear there’s no deal.
I suppose it can only turn prices down???

Sorry - can’t seem to post. Saw what Luan said there. I really thought it’d drive things down


#5

Britain are our largest trading partners.

So a no-deal Brexit, worst case would be with tariffs imposed, resulting in less trade and a possible recession.

Recession = more taxes, pay cuts, etc

Drop in house prices ensues.

More likely outcome is fudge: no deal officially but agree short term until a fix is found, to not imposes tariffs. So not much effect on economy and no resulting drop in house prices


#6

Short term, not much. Long term, continued upwards pressure on rent and property price.

What ever way Brexit plays out, the significance of London will be reduced for Financial services etc. The people employed in these are the high paying jobs and these are the only people that have some freedom to move. The only question is how great will the hit on London be.

This will play out by large companies first moving their paper offices to EU cities; this is already in progress. In time people will gradually move. This will happen as new projects get started in these companies. A new project X will be setup in Frankfurt/Paris/Dublin rather than London. Some people will move countries, but mainly EU citizens will be recruited.

I’d expect most of these companies and projects to be moved to Frankfurt and Paris. A small percentage of them will move to Dublin. While in overall terms the numbers of people moving to Dublin will be a small percentage of the total, for Dublin it will be significant.

Anyone that frequents this site will know that there are pitifully few properties available to buy in the greater Dublin area as it is. This has been the primary cause of property and rent inflation in recent years. With an additional source of inward migration of people ready, willing and able to live with Dublin prices will see continued upward pressure in the greater Dublin area. This upward pressure should offset any chaos caused by no deal.


#7

Brexit is already causing a bump in the Irish property market if you believe the vested interest

joe.ie/news/uk-irish-homes-brexit-644456


#8

I think there’ll be disruption, I read recently that there’s 7.000 Irish companies entirely dependent on the Irish sea economy, however we do have at least plenty of options for replacement within the EU.

It’s actually been GBP devaluations, especially in 08/09 that forced many Irish exporters to expand beyond the UK entirely so I expect little disruption for them, it will most probably reduce Irish exports to the UK into single digits.

Maybe the top end of the Dublin market might see a bounce from executive staff establishing a domicile address but I can’t see there been a mass exodus, unless there’s widespread civil disruption in Britain, a scenario that isn’t countenanced in Ireland, but from currently living in north England I think it’s a real possibility.


#9

The clampdown on immigration in the UK is already causing an increase in illegals coming here where they will inevitably be given leave to remain. So it may not just be at the top of the market that we increased demand for housing -the Govt will have to build more units for those at the bottom also.

Also, all the EU states, especially the likes of Poland, Romania, Lithuania etc who had large numbers go to the UK - will a critical % of them come here instead in future in addition to their compatriots who would be coming here anyways? I expect we’ll more numbers coming and that’s going to cause an increase in demand for housing also


#10

From what I’ve seen of my Polish and other easter EU friends the trend seems to be those that didn’t start families are drifting back. While Polish wages aren’t near ours they’ve entered a cost of living sweet spot where staying away no longer makes sense.


#11

yep have seen that too with staff here


#12

I suppose it will depend on what immigration policies a post Brexit UK imposes, they may still allow certain eastern European workers entry but with more restrictions towards those who are not contributing.
I know in theory they could still do this whilst in the EU but for some reason they seem to be reluctant to do so.


#13

Brexit will cause a massive surge in non-EU citizens resident in Ireland - I would predict around 103,000 - coincidently that’s exactly the same as the number of UK citizens living here :smiley: - cso.ie/en/releasesandpublic … p7md/p7md/.


#14

On a more serious note I certainly can’t agree with Luans comment on an effect on high end property prices. When you think about it the people who will be coming here will not be those at the top end of the scale - most of these are well settled in the UK and most likely have children at school/college there. If they live in London they won’t want to sell up now as London prices at the high end are in a slow meltdown. If we get anything from brexit it will be mid-level minions who have no choice but to move and (more likely) Irish ex-pats looking to move back. They might puff some more air into the mid-priced bubble but they are more likely to have low equity in their UK property. We might see a situation similar to the 90s where ex-pats who moved back here kept UK properties and waited over a decade to see house prices rise to meet their mortgages. All in all I don’t hear very much about any kind of massive inflow of wealthy brits. As has been said above this is primarily a paper move but it may have a long slow long term effect in decisions to locate here.


#15

Most Brits haven’t internalised what this all potentially means yet, expect those whose business is more dependent on the bigger EU economic scale, those people will have already acted by now.

From dropping into the Irish centres in the north England I reckon we won’t be seeing a huge exodus of returning Irish from there as most are of retirement age with few if any meaningful roots left in Ireland. Demographically it seems the Irish sea flow to the old British industrial centres went into reverse in the 90s, most of the people under 45 in the Irish centres seem to be all second generation with lives firmly planted there.

If there is an exodus it will be because of serious social unrest in post Brexit Britain in the coming years and even then it may a slow migration over years.


#16

In the short term I think there’ll be a recession. Quick and severe. The UK being bollocked has always meant Ireland is bollocked. We should be able to reorientate fairly quickly and effectively towards Europe. Our international business marketing is on point and there’ll be a lot of UK supplied gaps to slot into, but there’ll be a major wobble as it happens.

In the medium term, we’ll be the only English speaking country in the EU (except Malta).

The UK in general and London in particular is a big center for multi-national/multi-lingual couples for whom English is their common language. I think we’ll see a bigportion of that group choosing Dublin as their long term home after Brexit. It might sound like a tiny sliver of the population but it’s a huge chunk of people and will put pressure on Dublin.

There’ll also be a huge influx of research & research funding & associated spin offs. The UK gets a disproportionately large amount of EU research money at the moment, and that’s a LOT of money. That will be looking for new homes, as will their researchers. Ireland is well set to garner a benefit there.

Longer term, I fully expect we’re going to end up with Northern Ireland in the next decade. Christ knows what that’ll mean.


#17

There will be more pressure on the rental market in Dublin as the English and ex pats begin to Leave London and sell some of their Spanish and French properties, because of a strong euro and weak pound. It will be mainly middle class that will come into the stalled Irish property market, which has stabilised and is beginning a slow decline. Very little sales property is moving and there is a very large non moving backlog of properties that have not moved now for two years. Daft drop is showing a very strong increase in falling asking prices. Irish Londoners think Britain leaving is an absolute disaster for them. The bankers are instructed to return to Britain and leave the European Union. The research budget will increase very much for Ireland as we will get the money that would normally go to Britain.


#18

Its near impossible to predict house prices under normal circumstances but even a hard Brexit will be a slight negative. Maybe the confidence fairy will be trampled under foot, maybe not


#19

Just an ever so slight effect, just as scintilla, a smidgen perhaps. :stuck_out_tongue:

Three-bed semis in Dublin will always cost more than a half-million (now we’ve got past that little speed bump with the silly bankers)

Cut off from our largest market, a border in Newry? No bother, boys!!!


#20

I’d agree that it won’t be the North of England. The people I’m thinking of moved over to the UK when IT went in to recession here in the early 2000’s - they mainly work in the South East of England and a few in Scotland. Their kids are approaching secondary school age and the UK is looking very unattractive, and the undercurrent of racism is making a lot of them uneasy, their parents and older siblings have filled them in on how the Irish were treated in the last generation. If there is social unrest based on race I can assure you that Ireland won’t be behind the curve - if anything it will be worse in this country and you can see the stirrings of that on boards, politics.ie, from taxi drivers and even (dare I say it) on here.