What if House Prices Fall by 30% Worldwide?

Bubbles do always burst but there is something inherently stupid and pathetic in humans and human nature to think that “this time it’s different.” We never seem to learn from our past mistakes.

I’d say the world will be lucky to get away with a 30% drop…it may be considerably more than that - and I believe that this global house price crash will be spectacular and frightening at the same time.

They are paying an EGO PREMIUM for buying over renting lol

It’s not that humans are inherently stupid and pathetic. It’s that housing has been made into a commodity intead of a necessity - therefore the minority interests who have the power (and for a limited time, the control) in this market spew all sorts of lies and propaganda to keep the fire burning. Most people don’t have an indepth knowledge of economics and will therefore listen to those seemingly “in the know” even if it means walking straight off a cliff. It’s not that we don’t learn from our mistakes. It’s that in every generation there’s a minority rational view battling against the majority who are lost in the bubble.

I think its a matter of acceptence with people, if you have a society that is continually bombarded with rubbish and who make uninformed decisions based on what their friends or family do/did or worse based on whats in the media of course its going to take a long time for reality to set in.

Add to that peoples unwillingness to believe they purchased something a year or so ago and now its worth 100k less, then acceptence is like being paid your salary gross in cash and having to hand over your tax and prsi half way through the month when your skint, there would be a certain reluctance to do this although eventually it will sink in.

This bit of research from the US is telling. US house prices are falling at a faster rate than in the last crash, yet most people still believe that prices are higher or at least the same as at the peak. :confused:

money.cnn.com/2008/02/07/news/economy/homeowners_views/index.htm?postversion=patrick.net

I think the market in Ireland is reacting in the same way, the vast majority are still in denial.

canny interested confident enthusiastic greed mania vacuum denial acceptance fear desparation panic capitulation despondency canny

public join in at the enthusiastic stage , canny exit at the greed stage

currently irish housing market between denial and acceptance in my opinion. Stockmarket always ahead of the news and real economy by 1-1.5 years

arent we there 30% cut in price
the rest are in denial