What is effect of Irish default on government bondholders?

Hi,
Long , long time lurker. As previous people have said thanks to all for the informative debate on the pin, stopped me from buying a few years back. Now I’m sitting back watching many of the pin predictions happening.

I’ve been watching the debacle of the banks buying Irish bonds and selling on to Europe.

I’m wondering what happens when the government can’t honour these bonds.

My understanding is that default would bring in the EU/IMF to clean up the house, raise taxes, reduce services etc. etc.
Would the government bonds then be honoured in their entirety or would the bondholders take a hit?

Would the EU do everything in their power to prevent a government defaulting on their sovereign bonds?

There’s been a lot of debate on this and no-one really knows!

Some of us have suspicions that the ECB would swallow its losses as bad debts.

But yes, they probably would do everything in their power. That is what the IMF does, I don’t expect any different medicine from the EU, the ECB or the insect overlords!

Which of course begs the questions why aren’t the government doing everything in their power to avoid having to go to the IMF/EU for a bailout instead of doing everything in their power to bring on that evil day?

Mainly because FF’s one goal is to get out of the mess they created by hopefully getting someone else to make the painful cuts,while they skunk out the door hoping to get back in,in a few years when they and their fellow travellers in the media rewrite history.They have sat on their hands for effectivley 18 months while we borrow €55million a day,a bigger shower of useless idiots clowns you could not find.

+1
I have to agree with you, you’d be hard pushed to find worse useless bas***ds than them.

Okay, lots more questions!

So these bonds are absolutely guaranteed and default is covered by europe and irish tax payer.
If these bonds will be protected at all costs and return is so high vs. german why are they not in massive demand? Surely that’s a sign there is a risk to the holders.

What are the consequences if these government bonds were not honoured? Is the worry that other countries could be allowed default and this would collapse the euro? are there any other consequences?

If we are spending european money at some stage they have to call a day. When is d-day? Is it after lisbon approved,when we’ve spent too much,when the other euro countries cop on to the game,failure of nama or something else?

If we default then spreads on Irish sovereign bonds will rise very high.The only purchaser of Irish sovereign bonds will be the ECB.

The only option then is EU imposed spending cuts or benign default .

If we vote Yes to Lisbon then the EU will have sovereign powers and spending cuts will be imposed.
If we vote No to Lisbon then the only option left is for the EU to quietly write off our debts.The EU wont have the power to force spending cuts but must either keep lending to us or write off the debt,otherwise the Euro will collapse and we will take europe down with us.

The point I am making is that by voting No we retain some leverage(we may piss everyone off but who cares when your survival is at stake)

What? Show me the where in Lisbon treaty “the EU will have sovereign powers” that would allow that “spending cuts will be imposed.”

Nate

Show me where in the Nice treaty mass immigration would be imposed.?
The Nice treaty in conjunction with previous treaties allowed for mass immigration from the accession states even though this was not contained in the Nice treaty.

Similarly provisions (Monetary Provisions) in the Maastrict treaty which are being liberally interpreted are currently being used to apply Quantative Easing in Ireland using the banks as the delivery mechanism.

In the Lisbon Treaty the distribution of competences in various policy areas between Member States and the Union is explicitly stated in three categories,one of which is the following:

Exclusive competence:
The Union has exclusive competence to make directives and conclude international agreements when provided for in a Union legislative act.

.Monetary policy for the Member States whose currency is the euro

Competence is a soft word meaning Power or Sovereignty.
The EU post Lisbon will have power to issue Monetary policy directives in euro zone countries such as Ireland.
In combination with how Maastrict is currently being operated (i.e. the repo of Irish Sovereign bonds) the Lisbon Treaty will be used to control money supply to Ireland through the ECB.

He who pays calls the tune .
The money supply will be regulated in accordance with whatever spending cuts the ECB tells the Irish govt. to make.

Eh, common market? Freedom of movement? It was all pretty clear cut.

europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAct … anguage=en

Now stop dragging this thread offtopic.

There you go again tug …the same old destructive censorship of any analysis which does nt accord with your world view.
My contribution was on topic and offering an analysis which required references to previous treaties and examples.

Which were abundantly incorrect.

My “worldview” accords with your own on the No to Lisbon but actually get some factually accurate reasons next time.

This is not a Lisbon thread.

This is a Lisbon thread.

This is for consequences of Irish Bondholders in the event of an Irish default.