Welcome back DaltonR,reports of your demise have been greatly exagerated!
All such discussions are meaningless,measuring inflation,house prices,wages inflation - it means nothing.This whole NAMA exercise is about maintaining house prices at their current value.NAMA is going to pay very close to bubble/current values for ALL property and even part completed developments,even sites.You are all needlessly overcomplicating things.
The extent of the overpayment will range from low teens to high eighty/ninety percents,noone can know the extent of the gouging of the Irish taxpayer.The calculation is impossible as it will be worked out as the nightmare of losses,bankruptcies and reposessions unfolds.The government hasn’t a clue,nor the banks nor anyone else.The government will simply pay whatever it has to.
Just be content in the knowledge that this is all about maintaining the belief in the minds of the average Joe and Mary that “you cannot lose on property”.
Their recent faith has taken a large test,and is about to be rewarded by the ECB in the form a cast iron guarantee to the Irish government of all the property based losses of the banks.
Most families in Ireland as anywhere on planet earth,do not want the value of their house to go down,have you all got that?they think it should only go up.The fact that it would give them more of their own money to spend as they wish every month,instead of giving it to the banks in the form of interest(or the government in tax to pass on to the banks via NAMA) doesn’t even enter their heads.To them,they have bought it at x00,000 euros,and so their monthly payments are effectively fixed(interest rates aren’t going up for years to come)so if house prices fall and new/first time buyers have lower payments it doesn’t affect them,so they rather selfishly would rather the government does everything to keep house prices artificially high.
If you don’t understand that pyschology,you will incorrectly assume people will do what is right for the country and what is right for society as a whole.
The people want to be shafted,nothing you are going to say on this site or do is going to change that,banks offer these people the chance to make free money by over borrowing on their mortgage.The government- via the taxpayer- is offering to guarantee the whole process,god forbid anyone who stands in the way of what they consider to be their rightful gains.
Since the mortgagees and the taxpayers are one and the same,it just remains for the more intelligent of the gombeens to work out that like the diner at the table of the restaurant where the bill is being split between everyone,those who eat the most pay the least.
Roll on the next bubble.