What is "the long-term economic value of" Irish property??


#69

https://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/109.gif


#70

Wait for the database (if it ever happens). Then all this opinionated waffle can be cast aside. The database will have the following benefits:

  • transparency for potential buyers, who, knowing the real prices houses are transacting at, might cast aside their paranoia about estate agent shenanigans and be encouraged to come out and play

  • transparency for potential vendors, who, knowing the real prices houses are transacting at, might cast aside their bubble price delusions and come out to play at realistic asking prices

And the property market might gain some traction at a more rational level than before. And everybody lived happily ever with their stress-tested, non-crippling mortgages. Amen.


#71

It appears that desirability of answer and validity of comparison are highly correlated


#72

I compared rentals in Ireland with rentals in Germany to demonstrate that Irish rentals are still quite high. We should have considerably lower rents than they do, in my opinion, since they have actual indigenous wealth.


#73

First of all, I choose this approach of comparing Ireland to another country because in general I think we look to much inn on ourselves in how we value stuff in Ireland, whether it be PS pay, semi state companies pay, social welfare, house prices etc.

I picked germany because there has been no property bubble there in the last 20 years, also the GNP (which measure the domestic wealth of the country not like GDP) per capita is similar and overall government tax on households is similar on GNP per capita.

regarding us being bankrupt, our government is bankrupt because its spending more than it has coming from tax, if are spending matched germanys in terms of PS pay premiums over industrial wage and social benefits then we would not have a deficit (easier said than done). Ireland can get to a balanced budget with out a huge hit on GNP per cap. Infact the EU-IMF forecasts ireland to be growing in terms of GDP 2012-15 even tho we will be reigning in the deficit over those years.


#74

(a)One hell of a big if!

(b) We do have a huge deficit!

And we’ll have a serious debt to GDP ratio to go with it by 2015! (well we are getting there already)

In summary:

If, buts, maybe and a lot of hot air


#75

#76

The IMF-EU bailout terms has us to reduce the deficit by 2015, and so far we are on track and meeting our targets


#77

And this makes us like Germany how?


#78

same GNP per capita and tax level on households


#79

How can Ireland’s GNP be the same as perhaps the richest country in the world? It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

The answer to the question I think is that we are still in the middle of mass delusion and denial about the state of our country. Government spending is roughly where it was 4 years ago. Household indebtedness per capita in Ireland is astronomical compared to Germany. Our unemployment rate isn’t moving south any time soon. There have been only minor cuts to SW and none to the minimum wage or to PS pay. There have been no home repossessions. We do not have a single functioning indigenous bank. 90% of our exports are from MNC’s. Our sovereign and bank debt is so high we can’t borrow on the open market, will need a second bailout and will, at some point, have a credit event.

And yet somehow we are to believe that the underlying truth is that our GNP is the same a Germany’s?

Sorry, I can’t even get my head around how that can be possible. I always have an open mind to be persuaded otherwise, but my take is that we are living in a false parallel universe and the underlying truth has not yet been revealed.


#80

Income does not equal wealth.

However the Irish net net wealth per capita is €102k or approximately €460 billion net of debt :slight_smile:

Not bad for a countrty that is broke :confused:


#81

Anyone thinking of comparing Ireland to Germany should take a drive through the Ruhr region. Hundreds of kilometres of Industry. Or have a look at the skyscrapers of Frankfurt. Or the motor industries of Bochum, Stuttgart or Duesseldorf. Or the Media hubs of Hamburg and Cologne. Or check-out the low wages of East germany. Excuse me for not accepting Germany as a suitable comparison for Ireland. Never mind their military hardware, mag-lev trains and nuclear power tech exports. I would be thinking ‘Slovakia’ instead.


#82

How can Ireland’s GNP be the same as perhaps the richest country in the world? It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

The answer to the question I think is that we are still in the middle of mass delusion and denial about the state of our country. Government spending is roughly where it was 4 years ago. Household indebtedness per capita in Ireland is astronomical compared to Germany. Our unemployment rate isn’t moving south any time soon. There have been only minor cuts to SW and none to the minimum wage or to PS pay. There have been no home repossessions. We do not have a single functioning indigenous bank. 90% of our exports are from MNC’s. Our sovereign and bank debt is so high we can’t borrow on the open market, will need a second bailout and will, at some point, have a credit event.

And yet somehow we are to believe that the underlying truth is that our GNP is the same a Germany’s?

Sorry, I can’t even get my head around how that can be possible. I always have an open mind to be persuaded otherwise, but my take is that we are living in a false parallel universe and the underlying truth has not yet been revealed.

GNP per capta is all the goods and service produced in the county +/- foreign transfers with the world . Are GNP per head happens to be the same as Germanys, sorry if you can’t get that Larry but its a fact. yes are government finances are in a heep but that is as you say above, were going to have to cut PS pay and SW to levels like Germanys to get are governments finances back on track, currently PS and SW are overall higher in Ireland than in germany.


#83

Apples 60bn ipad ‘exports’ count towards GDP but I don’t know that a significant part of German GDP can be regarded as equivalent economic activity. Extract the offshore effect and Irish GDP would look more like Slovakia than Germany I suspect.


#84

Last time I looked at the numbers a few years ago at the MNC transfer part of the economy account for around 70% of exports, 50% of private sector GDP and around 30% of total GNP. i.e shut down the blatant tax evasion by MNC’s and that is probably how much of the economy would disappear. Shutdown the equivalent German tax scams (Luxemburg, Netherland shell operations etc) and the German GNP would probably rise a few percent. German corporate profits however would collapse. But thats another story.

The only upside of the much larger financial and regulatory evasion facilitated by the IFSC is that even though it absolutely dwarfs the official economy, about 5 times larger, there is almost no leakage into the real economy. It generates relatively little domestic economic activity. The 600 billion p.a in the IFSC is just “resting” in a/c’s.


#85

A much more relevant comparison imo would be Finland. Similar population size, GDP per capita ($37600 v $36500), dispersed population and developed public services.

Finland property running about €210 /sq.ft or €2261/sq. m. I don’t have the equivalent figure for Ireland but it seems to me that most properties for sale are closer to twice that at present.


#86

Maybe in Dublin but I would be surprised if nationally the price per square foot was above €200


#87

Jeysus we had 30 pages recently on why we are not in a dead cat bounce, and where the bottom of the cycle lay, when all we needed to show current prices are overcooked was in the 6 pages of this thread.


#88

Of course you are correct.