What is "the long-term economic value of" Irish property??


#61

Please don’t fall into the trap of this LTEV concept pull out of the collective arse of Lenihan, Ahearne and Bacon


#62

Sorry, don’t know what LTVE stands for?


#63

See thread title. Some sick dead dude know as Lenny coined it to blacken more our quest for truth. It’s a fantastical term of despair disguised as hope.


#64

Germany = :bulb:

Ireland = BD 8- XD 8DD :sick:


#65

+1


#66

Yeah - lets compare Germany & Ireland based on one statistic GNP per capita and ignore everything else.


#67

I’ve tried to post a reply here, but I’m genuinely lost for words.

It seems that when one looks around for a country to compare to Ireland, Germany is a reasonable selection.

Fenian84 and LL - can I ask in all honesty, how can that be possible? One of the richest countries in the world v. a bankrupt country being run by the IMF. I honestly would like to hear a narrative on how that makes for fair comparison.


#68

Some pinsters have no problems drawing comparisons between Ireland and Germany when it comes to discussing rentals :slight_smile:

However is Ireland not one of the richest countries in the world?
Do we not have one of the highest incomes per capita in the world?
Do we not pay some of the highest SW in the world?
Are our average incomes not similar to our German neighbours?
Is our min wage not higher than Germany?

The IMF is running the country not because we are broke but because we are unable to live within our means.


#69

https://l.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/109.gif


#70

Wait for the database (if it ever happens). Then all this opinionated waffle can be cast aside. The database will have the following benefits:

  • transparency for potential buyers, who, knowing the real prices houses are transacting at, might cast aside their paranoia about estate agent shenanigans and be encouraged to come out and play

  • transparency for potential vendors, who, knowing the real prices houses are transacting at, might cast aside their bubble price delusions and come out to play at realistic asking prices

And the property market might gain some traction at a more rational level than before. And everybody lived happily ever with their stress-tested, non-crippling mortgages. Amen.


#71

It appears that desirability of answer and validity of comparison are highly correlated


#72

I compared rentals in Ireland with rentals in Germany to demonstrate that Irish rentals are still quite high. We should have considerably lower rents than they do, in my opinion, since they have actual indigenous wealth.


#73

First of all, I choose this approach of comparing Ireland to another country because in general I think we look to much inn on ourselves in how we value stuff in Ireland, whether it be PS pay, semi state companies pay, social welfare, house prices etc.

I picked germany because there has been no property bubble there in the last 20 years, also the GNP (which measure the domestic wealth of the country not like GDP) per capita is similar and overall government tax on households is similar on GNP per capita.

regarding us being bankrupt, our government is bankrupt because its spending more than it has coming from tax, if are spending matched germanys in terms of PS pay premiums over industrial wage and social benefits then we would not have a deficit (easier said than done). Ireland can get to a balanced budget with out a huge hit on GNP per cap. Infact the EU-IMF forecasts ireland to be growing in terms of GDP 2012-15 even tho we will be reigning in the deficit over those years.


#74

(a)One hell of a big if!

(b) We do have a huge deficit!

And we’ll have a serious debt to GDP ratio to go with it by 2015! (well we are getting there already)

In summary:

If, buts, maybe and a lot of hot air


#75

#76

The IMF-EU bailout terms has us to reduce the deficit by 2015, and so far we are on track and meeting our targets


#77

And this makes us like Germany how?


#78

same GNP per capita and tax level on households


#79

How can Ireland’s GNP be the same as perhaps the richest country in the world? It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

The answer to the question I think is that we are still in the middle of mass delusion and denial about the state of our country. Government spending is roughly where it was 4 years ago. Household indebtedness per capita in Ireland is astronomical compared to Germany. Our unemployment rate isn’t moving south any time soon. There have been only minor cuts to SW and none to the minimum wage or to PS pay. There have been no home repossessions. We do not have a single functioning indigenous bank. 90% of our exports are from MNC’s. Our sovereign and bank debt is so high we can’t borrow on the open market, will need a second bailout and will, at some point, have a credit event.

And yet somehow we are to believe that the underlying truth is that our GNP is the same a Germany’s?

Sorry, I can’t even get my head around how that can be possible. I always have an open mind to be persuaded otherwise, but my take is that we are living in a false parallel universe and the underlying truth has not yet been revealed.


#80

Income does not equal wealth.

However the Irish net net wealth per capita is €102k or approximately €460 billion net of debt :slight_smile:

Not bad for a countrty that is broke :confused: