I think we should have a sticky which logs what the VIs says so we can all look back in a years time and see who had it right. I’d like to start with Mr Declan Cassidy of the Gunne Reports Summer 07 (Published early July 07)
Dan McLaughlin, chief economist Bank of Ireland:
John O’Sullivan, residential director Lisney:
Ray Grehan, property developer Glenkerrin Homes:
All from The Irish Times: ireland.com/newspaper/proper … 53659.html
“Comical” Austin Hughes, Chief Economist IIB Bank (speaking on 12th May 2006):
From Finfacts: finfacts.com/irelandbusiness … 5814.shtml
Dermot Ahern on Q&A 9th July 2007
Geoff Tucker March 2007 Economist, Hooke & MacDonald
Last night IIB economist Austin Hughes told the Irish Independent: “The ECB (European Central Bank) simply doesn’t have to rise rates any further.” He said the current 3.5pc bank rate (which means at least a 4.5pc rate for borrowers) is sufficient.
“We’ve been guaranteed another one in December but that will be it, done and dusted,” he said.
Ken McDonald - 25 March 2007
“You can find extensive, informed, articulate, balanced and entertaining commentary on the impending collapse of the Irish property market here.”
8/11/06: Brendan - Askaboutmoney on thepropertypin.com
I’m surprised he hasn’t written into the papers asking them to hold off further articles until someone writes a balanced summary…
God I love the rapid and easy access to the quotes of these muppets via tinternet. Lots of red faces and shattered reputations in years to come.
Mr. B Ahern
Friday, April 07th, 2006
The Taoiseach has said he does not see a great problem with the levels of borrowing to buy property.
Mr Ahern said there had been predictions of a huge downturn in 2005.
He added the bad advice given by so many resulted in some people making mistakes when they should have bought property last year.
One of the EA’s said in 2006 that the average price for a house in Dublin would reach â‚¬750,000 by the year 2015.
(DOW 36,000 remark )
Can we please post the link in all cases?
I did a bit of googling and turned up this:
No names though.
Marie Hunt of CBRE is usually good for some quotes
Paul McNeive of Savills Hamilton Osborn King
from lexis nexis
Copyright 2005 Irish Independent
June 2, 2005
LENGTH: 382 words
HEADLINE: AVERAGE DUBLIN HOUSE IN 2015 TO HIT E750,000
THE average Dublin house price will hit the E750,000 mark or higher in 2015, according to 70pc of attendees at an Ulster Bank CBRE Gunne Property Conference yesterday. Group collective swizzling of the kool-aid. :lol:
Speakers at the conference included Pat McArdle, chief economist, Ulster Bank, Marie Hunt, director of research, CBRE Gunne, and professor Joe Durkan, department of economics, UCD. wonder if he scabs a few biccies off of Morgan during tea breaks at Belfield
While some property experts were more conservative with their prediction for 2015 of a E500,000 average, Mr McArdle said the higher figure was not particularly startling. maybe, if we find mircacle activity in the economy
“We have already seen prices rise very rapidly and many people feel this will continue,” he said.
In the shorter term, 71pc of delegates expect Irish house price inflation of between 3pc and 7pc during 2006. A majority of 80pc believe that the construction boom will continue for another two to three years. make that one year
However, despite the upbeat theme, the conference heard there were some signs of slower activity in the first quarter of 2005, with 60pc citing factors that limited activity, principally lack of demand and labour shortages.
More than half felt that the number of new house completions would be down on last year, but not to any great extent.
In the rental market, more than half the attendees believed that prices would be unchanged in two years’ time, but Professor Durkan felt that rents might fall again as house price inflation eased and investors decided to offload empty properties. Was this a coded exit sign for the professional investors?
In the construction sector, four-fifths expect an increase in land prices within the greater Dublin area. Over 50pc said the business outlook for the next three months was better or much better, while 42pc expected no change.
Planning delays are still the highest negative factor facing the industry, with cost inflation and declining demand sharing the second slot.
And, while developers cited inadequate supplies of zoned land, official figures given indicated a plentiful supply.
The conference heard that demand is being driven by the residential sector and a buoyant economy, with commercial activity and civil engineering relatively quiet.
Looking forward to the future of the property market, delegates were relatively evenly split over a number of areas where SSIA money would be spent.
Investment in property, at 60pc, was the favourite. Like arse it is being spent on property
more, this time with the names. This is gold. It was Mr Gunne who predicted that prices would rise to â‚¬750k on average, head of ulster bank said that there would be no rate rises within the folowing 12 months. D’Oh.
June 1, 2005
LENGTH: 461 words
HEADLINE: PROPERTY PRICES COULD DOUBLE
PRIME property values could double in value over the next 10 years, a major “futures” conference in Dublin heard this week.
Speaking at the ‘Next Decade - Next Challenge’ conference, CBRE Gunne managing director, Pat Gunne, said that property values are set to continue to increase significantly over the next ten years on the back of favourable economic and demographic circumstances. The conference was organised jointly by CBRE Gunne and Ulster Bank.
Mr Gunne predicted that prime Dublin office rents will reach E915 per sq m by 2015. The property expert forecast that Zone A rents on Grafton Street will rise to E13,450 per sq m Zone A. He predicted that the price of a car space in Dublin will reach E220,000 in 10 years time, while the price of a large period house in Dublin 4 could hit E25m by 2015.
Mr Gunne added that there will be a significant change in terms of infrastructure over the next decade but that we are still likely to be lagging behind in European terms in 10 years time. He expects to see significant high-rise development in the city centre skyline and foresees a significant redirection in the Sandyford market over the next 10-year period.
He predicted that the regeneration of Ballymun will significantly improve this area of the city and that the development of Adamstown will set a new blueprint for development in the Irish market over the next 10 years. man the lifeboats in Adamstown
Mr Gunne was following in the footsteps of his late father, Fintan Gunne, who 10 years ago made a similar shortlist of predictions which have now proven uncannily accurate. what was accurate?
Marie Hunt, director of Research at CBRE Gunne spoke, predicted that the average price of a three-bedroom semi in Ireland will have hit E400,000 by 2015 while at that stage a similar property in Dublin is likely to cost in the order of E525,000.
According to her research on the Irish housing market, she said that there is the potential for oversupply in the Irish housing market over the next few years if developers do not act prudently and curtail the annual level of completions from the record levels of recent years. She suggested that the economy should be aiming to complete between 65,000 and 70,000 units in Ireland in 2005 to cater for inherent demand. danger of over-supply? was this another wink-wink moment to the savvy investors?
The conference was chaired by Ulster Bank head of property finance. Queried on the outlook for borrowers, Michael Madigan said that the interest rate scenario for the foreseeable future is “benign”.the rates are still benign, but the sums that are borrowed makes interest repayments very harsh
“I would not personally see any interest rate rise within the next 12 months,” commented Mr Madigan, Ulster Bank head of property finance. you might not see any rate rise, but Seasoamh O’Bloggs will see the rate rise
“If there is to be any increase, I would not foresee it until very much towards the back end of this time frame.” you’re about 6 months too late on your prediction
The seminar was attended by over 200 leading property professionals.
Edel Morgan’s articles in the Irish Times were favourites of mine. This one is from 26th May 2005.
14th April 2006
Brian Cowen 13th of April 2006
Addressing the Real Estate Alliance Property Conference.