What they said, when they said it. Quotes from VIs

whizzbang · July 19, 2007, 5:09pm

Central Bank (Ireland)

businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=1777813;s=rollingnews.htm

Green_Bear · July 19, 2007, 8:43pm

The construction industry, a critical indicator of the Irish economy, admitted last night that contractors across the country are now searching for projects instead of workers.
The Construction Industry Federation said the sector would be forced to revise employment projections downwards due to “a marked slowdown”.
A leading economist said the warning reflected a reduction in both business and consumer spending, and predicted the situation would worsen.
Austin Hughes, chief economist with IIB Bank, said it was now clear the economic slowdown was going to last longer than a few months.
Employment in the construction industry grew from 97,000 in 1995 to 170,000 in 2000, and there had been concerns there would not be enough manpower to meet demand.
It was estimated up to 220,000 construction workers would be needed to meet national requirements, but the social partners will be told today that this should be revised downwards. This is due to a significant slowdown in construction activity in the Midlands, western and southern regions. There is still demand for workers in the Leinster area.
Mr Hughes said the construction industry was a bellweather of the economy and was further evidence of a step-down in growth.
Peter McCabe, CIF’s director of business and manpower said: “We don’t want to be alarmist but there could be a very serious situation in three to four months time.”
He added that the Government needed to move forward urgently projects which had been given the go-ahead in the National Development Plan.

Slowdown as builders now seek work, not staff
July 26 2001
independent.ie/national-news … 39969.html

Last night IIB economist Austin Hughes told the Irish Independent: “The ECB (European Central Bank) simply doesn’t have to rise rates any further.” He said the current 3.5pc bank rate (which means at least a 4.5pc rate for borrowers) is sufficient.
“We’ve been guaranteed another one in December but that will be it, done and dusted,” he said.
“The evidence from the Commission is that there is no need for aggressive rises in interest rates.”
There is, however, the possibility of one final increase from the cautious bankers for ‘insurance reasons’.
“They would prefer to make rates a little too high rather than too low,” he added.
The Bank of Ireland’s Dan McLaughlin was even more optimistic.
He believes next month’s increases will be the last. He believed rates are likely to peak at 4.5pc.
But he said some feel they will reach 4.75pc and stay there for some time.
He reminded home owners that the economy moves in cycles, and with the economic cycle peaking in Europe, so too will interest rates. The comments will dampen earlier fears that rates would reach 5pc or higher.
The Commission’s report also signalled growing concern that further interest rate hikes could adversely affect the Irish property market.
It says: “Housing markets continue to be richly valued in a number of member states and, in the event of further interest rate hikes, a significant correction may occur.”
Buyers
Mr McLaughlin said interest rates at 5pc or higher would adversely affect our property market, but said current rates will simply lead to slower price growth.
more>>>

Boost for borrowers as interest hikes to end
November 07 2006
independent.ie/national-news … 67530.html

southofdub · July 28, 2007, 3:28pm

rte.ie/business/2006/0731/houses.html

southofdub · July 28, 2007, 4:13pm

rte.ie/news/2006/0728/cowenb.html

jake76 · July 29, 2007, 9:26am

The smart, ballsy guys are buying up property right now
Sunday July 29 2007

SO THE sky is falling in again. The Irish stock market is apparently in meltdown, because of the housing market, which is also apparently in meltdown. The level of property horror stories is at an all-time high and everyone is tripping over each other to predict even greater gloom than the next guy.

Tell you what, I think I know what I’d be doing if I had money, and if I wasn’t already massively over-exposed to the property market by virtue of owning a reasonable home. I’d be buying property. In fact, I might do it anyway. You don’t even need money to buy property these days. Imagine if you walked into the bank and said, “Listen, guys. I want to gamble a million on the stock market. I have 100 grand myself, will you guys lend me 900 grand at really low rates and I’ll pay you back over 40 years? In fact I won’t even pay off the principal, I’ll just pay off the interest.” They’d laugh you out of it. But substitute gambling on the property market for gambling on the stock market and they’ll fall over themselves to give it to you.

So why would I be buying property right now if I could? Well, for starters, property is good value these days. It’s certainly cheaper than it was six months ago. While the official figures on aggregate surveys are talking about drops of two to three per cent in property prices, anyone who is out there in the jungle will tell you that it is a buyer’s market bigtime.

If you’re smart and you have balls and you’re dealing with the right buyer you can knock 10 per cent or more off the price of a house these days. And that could well be a house that has already been reduced in price by 10 per cent or more in the last six months. Because while the big picture suggests a 3 per cent drop, the big picture is made up of lots of little pictures and you don’t knock 3 per cent off the price of your house if you can’t sell it. Individual house prices fall in substantial chunks.

John D Rockefeller famously said that the way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets. Buying into a boom is kind of a mug’s game, and, as we know, anyone can do it. The really smart and ballsy guys are the guys who are buying when no one else is. The guys who made real money on property in Ireland were the ones who bought property before everyone else, when it was unfashionable. They were in a minority. Most people who bought property bought it recently, in a seller’s market, for top dollar. Which makes no sense when you think about it. When you think about it, it makes sense to buy property now. Though of course some people say it always makes sense to buy property. There is no such thing as a good or a bad time to buy. It’s always a good time to buy.

Anyway, there is blood on the streets, or at least an impression of blood on the streets, and it’s time to buy. You can be guaranteed that’s what the smart guys are doing. Every smart, rich bloke (the two can, in fact, occur in the same guy) I’ve spoken to for the last few years has been, to some extent, hoarding cash, waiting for this. And now they’re around picking up bargains. Some of them might be waiting a little while more, in the hope that we haven’t reached the bottom yet. But lots of them know that the trick is to buy and sell stuff a little bit too soon. Lots of guys have gone broke waiting for the actual top or bottom of the market.

Not only is property better value now than when everyone was barrelling into it a year ago, it also provides better returns. Rents are booming right now. It doesn’t take a genius to figure it: right now you can buy property for less and it will yield you more. That’s a better deal than six months ago.

Money is also still cheap. OK, interest rates aren’t 2 per cent any more, but 5 per cent is still cheap money in anyone’s books and everyone seems to agree it’s not going to get much dearer.

This is not to say everything is rosy in the garden, but then you know that. The vultures of doom who have been circling for years waiting to be right eventually are having a field day.

It was another week of gloom and doom in the headlines.

After years of willing it, journalists who didn’t buy property when they should have think they’ve finally got what they wanted. And they are wallowing in the mire. They also know that bad news is good news and a headline that’s going to scare the crap out of people is more fun than one that just says things are still OK.

But reading between the headlines, a more balanced picture emerges.

For example, Jim Power of Friends First was credited with giving a gloomy outlook for the economy and housing last week. In fact, Power was relatively upbeat about property. Is a 2 per cent drop in the market overall really going to kill us? Is that not a soft landing? And did Power not predict that prices would start to rise again next year due to less supply, more mortgage-interest relief and stabilising interest rates? If that’s what we regard as gloom these days, then clearly we’re spoilt.

The Central Bank’s version of gloom last week was to say that growth will fall this year - to 5 per cent. As falling growth goes, 5 per cent ain’t bad.

Unemployment is going to grow too - from 4.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent. It’s hardly the bad old days, is it? Four or 5 per cent unemployment constitutes practically full employment when you take into account frictional, structural and voluntary unemployment - the unemployment that always exists even if there are jobs for everyone.

And, yes, the Iseq is down 6 per cent this year, but balance that off against the 30 per cent it gained last year. The 6 per cent fall doesn’t even fully cancel out its gains of last December.

So, you know, maybe the sky is falling in, but maybe you should think twice before you follow the Chicken Lickens of the media into Foxy Loxy’s dark cave.

Brendan O’Connor

independent.ie/opinion/analy … 47118.html

Open_Window · July 29, 2007, 10:47am

jake76:

The smart, ballsy guys are buying up property right now

Sunday July 29 2007

SO THE sky is falling in again. The Irish stock market is apparently in meltdown, because of the housing market, which is also apparently in meltdown. The level of property horror stories is at an all-time high and everyone is tripping over each other to predict even greater gloom than the next guy.

Tell you what, I think I know what I’d be doing if I had money, and if I wasn’t already massively over-exposed to the property market by virtue of owning a reasonable home. I’d be buying property. In fact, I might do it anyway. You don’t even need money to buy property these days. Imagine if you walked into the bank and said, “Listen, guys. I want to gamble a million on the stock market. I have 100 grand myself, will you guys lend me 900 grand at really low rates and I’ll pay you back over 40 years? In fact I won’t even pay off the principal, I’ll just pay off the interest.” They’d laugh you out of it. But substitute gambling on the property market for gambling on the stock market and they’ll fall over themselves to give it to you.

So why would I be buying property right now if I could? Well, for starters, property is good value these days. It’s certainly cheaper than it was six months ago. While the official figures on aggregate surveys are talking about drops of two to three per cent in property prices, anyone who is out there in the jungle will tell you that it is a buyer’s market bigtime.

If you’re smart and you have balls and you’re dealing with the right buyer you can knock 10 per cent or more off the price of a house these days. And that could well be a house that has already been reduced in price by 10 per cent or more in the last six months. Because while the big picture suggests a 3 per cent drop, the big picture is made up of lots of little pictures and you don’t knock 3 per cent off the price of your house if you can’t sell it. Individual house prices fall in substantial chunks.

John D Rockefeller famously said that the way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets. Buying into a boom is kind of a mug’s game, and, as we know, anyone can do it. The really smart and ballsy guys are the guys who are buying when no one else is. The guys who made real money on property in Ireland were the ones who bought property before everyone else, when it was unfashionable. They were in a minority. Most people who bought property bought it recently, in a seller’s market, for top dollar. Which makes no sense when you think about it. When you think about it, it makes sense to buy property now. Though of course some people say it always makes sense to buy property. There is no such thing as a good or a bad time to buy. It’s always a good time to buy.

Anyway, there is blood on the streets, or at least an impression of blood on the streets, and it’s time to buy. You can be guaranteed that’s what the smart guys are doing. Every smart, rich bloke (the two can, in fact, occur in the same guy) I’ve spoken to for the last few years has been, to some extent, hoarding cash, waiting for this. And now they’re around picking up bargains. Some of them might be waiting a little while more, in the hope that we haven’t reached the bottom yet. But lots of them know that the trick is to buy and sell stuff a little bit too soon. Lots of guys have gone broke waiting for the actual top or bottom of the market.

Not only is property better value now than when everyone was barrelling into it a year ago, it also provides better returns. Rents are booming right now. It doesn’t take a genius to figure it: right now you can buy property for less and it will yield you more. That’s a better deal than six months ago.

Money is also still cheap. OK, interest rates aren’t 2 per cent any more, but 5 per cent is still cheap money in anyone’s books and everyone seems to agree it’s not going to get much dearer.

This is not to say everything is rosy in the garden, but then you know that. The vultures of doom who have been circling for years waiting to be right eventually are having a field day.

It was another week of gloom and doom in the headlines.

After years of willing it, journalists who didn’t buy property when they should have think they’ve finally got what they wanted. And they are wallowing in the mire. They also know that bad news is good news and a headline that’s going to scare the crap out of people is more fun than one that just says things are still OK.

But reading between the headlines, a more balanced picture emerges.

For example, Jim Power of Friends First was credited with giving a gloomy outlook for the economy and housing last week. In fact, Power was relatively upbeat about property. Is a 2 per cent drop in the market overall really going to kill us? Is that not a soft landing? And did Power not predict that prices would start to rise again next year due to less supply, more mortgage-interest relief and stabilising interest rates? If that’s what we regard as gloom these days, then clearly we’re spoilt.

The Central Bank’s version of gloom last week was to say that growth will fall this year - to 5 per cent. As falling growth goes, 5 per cent ain’t bad.

Unemployment is going to grow too - from 4.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent. It’s hardly the bad old days, is it? Four or 5 per cent unemployment constitutes practically full employment when you take into account frictional, structural and voluntary unemployment - the unemployment that always exists even if there are jobs for everyone.

And, yes, the Iseq is down 6 per cent this year, but balance that off against the 30 per cent it gained last year. The 6 per cent fall doesn’t even fully cancel out its gains of last December.

So, you know, maybe the sky is falling in, but maybe you should think twice before you follow the Chicken Lickens of the media into Foxy Loxy’s dark cave.

Brendan O’Connor

Sorry off topic, but how do you spell NOB is it with a K?

Mark · July 29, 2007, 2:17pm

LOL

CelloPoint · July 30, 2007, 1:50pm

This is a brilliant sticky! If I come across any quotes, I’ll be sure to add. We should all be trawling for more of these little gems!

Open_Window · July 30, 2007, 10:15pm

I’m starting to think dedicated pages with picture of each talking head beside said quote. Perhpas we should have avatar size or dbl avatar as standard 64x64pxels or 128x128 pixels.

If peopel want to email me as many picutres as they liek of each talking head send it to openwindow@thepropertypin.com, I’ll do a bit of searching too, then I’ll uplaod to photobucket and then it shall be simple as pie to link to the same image for IMPACT.

We could have a new forum with quotes, a thread to each personality talking head. Yes it would add volume to the site but woudl be good for posterity.

Also talking to TUG I believe it was Jun 06 we launched the pin to little a-do until events took aa turn over at AAM.

Green_Bear · August 4, 2007, 8:46pm

Not a quote per say, but I thought it was apt as it sums of the comments of many bank and property economists.
https://www.adrich.com/OPN/Jan02opn/analysttraining.gif

HouseBuyer · August 19, 2007, 11:18am

Here’s a choice quote from David McWilliams wannabe, Marc Coleman in the 2006 Quarter 2 daft report. As you all remember, the end of Q2 2006 marked the beginning of the decline in the Irish housing market.

Oh dear.

BillG · August 19, 2007, 3:28pm

“The best has yet to come”…

Mark Coleman is the journalistic equivalent of Fr Noel Furlong (Graham Norton) from the Fr Ted caravan episode.

Pill · August 20, 2007, 2:45pm

Crashandburn on would happen here as soon as price-dropping was reported by the media (May 28 2007).

Call in the National Guard in anticipation of this stampede

2Pack · August 24, 2007, 2:25pm

Dan desperately tries to kickstart interest in the 'september selling season ', 24th August 2007. 2pack gets in with his comments before the fact .

rte.ie/business/2007/0824/ecb.html

Bank of Ireland economist Dr Dan McLaughlin said the

European Central Bank was unlikely to increase euro zone interest rates next month, despite recent signals. He said interest rates had reached a peak.

This means that there will be no interest rate rises in 2007 according to Dan.

I call Dan wrong on both counts , there will be a rate rise this year and the cycle has therefore not peaked.

The economist said US interest rates look set to fall by mid-September at the latest, adding that he would be surprised if the cut were not a half-point move. Dr McLaughlin also said the Bank of England was unlikely to raise rates again.

I call Dan wrong on count one, There is no hope of a 0.5% drop in US rates in September . He may be right on the UK.

‘This cannot be allowed to continue for an extended period as it will transfer to higher borrowing costs for retail borrowers’ he said, adding that lending to consumers was already slowing.

In plain English.

Bank of Ireland will raise their variable rates in 2007 ANYWAY.

Bank of Ireland are not going to drop their Fixed rates in anticipation of these cuts that Dan sees in the pipeline

None of these BoI Interest Rates, Applicable today, will be lower on the 31st of December 2007 will they Dan. Mark my words not his people.

bankofireland.ie/html/gws/pe … index.html

Homeloan Fixed and Variable RatesProduct APR Annuity
Homeloan Variable 5.4%

Tracker Less Than â‚¬250k & LTV <92% ECB +0.65% rolling to ECB +1.15% 5.2%
Tracker Less Than â‚¬250k & LTV >92% ECB +0.65% rolling to ECB +1.25% 5.3%
Tracker >â‚¬250k & <â‚¬500k ECB +0.70% Rolling to ECB + 0.90% 5.0%
Tracker >â‚¬500k ECB +0.75% for the Term 4.8%
Tracker LTV < 50% ECB + 0.75% for the Term 4.8%
1 Year Fixed rolling to ECB + 1.25% 5.3%
2 Year Fixed rolling to ECB + 1.10% 5.1%
3 Year Fixed rolling to ECB + 1.25% 5.4%
4 Year Fixed rolling to ECB + 1.25% 5.5%
5 Year Fixed rolling to ECB + 1.25% 5.6%
10 Year Fixed rolling to ECB + 1.25% 5.9%

Fat_Bastard · September 12, 2007, 9:47am

Mary Ellen Synon had a nice little attack in the Daily Mail yesterday (my girlfriend is collecting the Attenborough dvds). The bold headline caught my eye,
ACT NOW OR FACE A PROPERTY CRASH
She had a good line about Comical where he predicted last year, 7% growth in HPs for 2007 and now he is saying there should be government intervention now to prevent a hard landing, `She said " You were wrong then, you are wrong now". She points out when he predicted the 7% he said we were in line for this providing the government didn’t interfere in the property market with some disasterous well meaning intervention.

She also made some good points about how government intervention got us into this mess in the first place with relief and incentives. She made an analogy about how property was a tumour on the lungs of our economy which could take us all down and Austin was suggesting we smoke another cigerette.
The part I liked best, although I’m not fond of her as a journalist was were she spun Austin’s quote saying a leading IIB economist says we are in for “a hard landing”. This was taken out of context but it was great to see Austin spun.

geckko · September 12, 2007, 10:22am

yeah, yeah…

beattie · September 12, 2007, 10:14pm

She did know a former gov of the BoE quite well so maybe she learned a thing or two about basics economics. It looks like it was a well written article from her.

Johnny · September 13, 2007, 10:09am

Not exactly a VI quote, but an anecdote that relates to the Irish property market which I thought I’d share with you all.

A guy got into my taxi around late Febuary/early March 2006 and began the usual small talk that goes with taxi journeys. He seemed a very savvy business type and the subject moved onto the economy in general, and property in particular. He took to have a bit of craic with me about taxi drivers having second properties, and asked whether mine were in Turkey or Bulgaria (!!), to which Johnny replied that he had the one roof over his head in Dublin, thank you very much, and that was it. As he got out, the guy then said, “All joking aside, if you have any extra property in Ireland sell it now. Don’t wait any longer, but offload it now. March of this year is the peak, and March of 2007 will see the first major signs of downturn.” He then said that Winter 2007 would see carnage in the market. This wasn’t a bland “It can’t go on forever…” rant, but the guy actually predicted it, practically to the month.

If that wasn’t enough, later the very same day, the wife of a major property VI in Ireland (won’t name him) also got into my car. I related the earlier predictions I’d been told, to which she replied with the usual VI guff and spin about “bricks and mortar never loses, etc, etc”- I’ll spare you all the ráiméis, you know the score.

When you get two polar opposites, invariably one is either totally wrong, lying or a bit of both. No prizes for guessing who in this case.

whizzbang · September 13, 2007, 10:58am

Johnny:

Not exactly a VI quote, but an anecdote that relates to the Irish property market which I thought I’d share with you all.

A guy got into my taxi around late Febuary/early March 2006 and began the usual small talk that goes with taxi journeys. He seemed a very savvy business type and the subject moved onto the economy in general, and property in particular. He took to have a bit of craic with me about taxi drivers having second properties, and asked whether mine were in Turkey or Bulgaria (!!), to which Johnny replied that he had the one roof over his head in Dublin, thank you very much, and that was it. As he got out, the guy then said, “All joking aside, if you have any extra property in Ireland sell it now. Don’t wait any longer, but offload it now. March of this year is the peak, and March of 2007 will see the first major signs of downturn.” He then said that Winter 2007 would see carnage in the market. This wasn’t a bland “It can’t go on forever…” rant, but the guy actually predicted it, practically to the month.

If that wasn’t enough, later the very same day, the wife of a major property VI in Ireland (won’t name him) also got into my car. I related the earlier predictions I’d been told, to which she replied with the usual VI guff and spin about “bricks and mortar never loses, etc, etc”- I’ll spare you all the ráiméis, you know the score.

When you get two polar opposites, invariably one is either totally wrong, lying or a bit of both. No prizes for guessing who in this case.

you should start a taxi man blog! I’m sure it would be fascinating!

Interesting to see the VIs were still spinning the yarn on the one to one basis.

2Pack · September 13, 2007, 11:05am

A Deputy Governor actually. She ratted him out to the Sunday Mirror which did an exposé with this utterly classic front page tabloid headline

“The Bonk Of England”

She is usually referred to in the tabloids as ‘The Bonk of England’ ever since and not as Mary Ellen Synon.

Background here

findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_q … 14345/pg_1