What to expect in January?

How will Ireland fare in January?

  • Good (as in … we’ll start getting better)
  • Ok (as in … there’ll be no noticeable difference)
  • Bad (as … there’ll be an upswing in job losses)
  • Ugly (as in … loads more layoffs, higher taxes, deeper cuts, loads of defaults)

0 voters

So, I think we nailed it last year with (as of now) 70% of users voting the January 2009 was gonna be Ugly : viewtopic.php?f=19&t=16304

So I haven’t decided to make this thread as a homage to last years thread or because I’ve had another chat with a mate.

I read a McWilliams article linked from another thread.

I was interested in what he wrote in the quote I’ve included at the VERY bottom* of this post. I think it predicts:

  • unemployment to rise significantly next year
  • large layoffs in our banks and insurance companies
  • public sector will contract
  • retail employment will fall away
  • higher taxes and charges
  • thousands over the border to shop
  • a potentially explosive rise in youth unemployment
  • defaults will increase dramatically
  • thousands will simply walk away from their houses
  • no one to rent them, because you need jobs to have a healthy rental market

I like what I wrote my post last year so I’ll say it again.

It’s a bit scary to think that there is worse to come but it is better to be honest with ourselves. You know… try to be realistic and be prepared.

What do you predict will have once January arrives upon us? Will be fine? Will we be devastated? Will we even care?

*Here’s the quote of McWilliams article I mentioned:

Don’t forget the annual MNC jobs cull, usually hits in the first quarter of the year.

difference between Jan 2009 and Jan 2010?

Ugly is getting uglier.

I’ve gone for ugly aswell, though I think it will be between bad and ugly (I guess that makes me a glass half-empty kind of guy!).

I suspect we’ll see emigration really kick off from January. Anecdotally, I know of people preparing to go once Christmas with family is over. New Year resolutions may see people thinking ‘I’ve had enough of this, let’s try for a better life abroad’.

For that and all the reasons outlined above, I voted ugly. :cry:

i think the damage itself jobwise largely happened this year but i simply dont believe the stats, so the stats will be bad while life on the ground will remain similar. However, the real bad shit, govt funding crisis etc will wait till mid year e.g july.

I think Ugly, and I would have voted Very Ugly if there had been such an option.

My main reason for that opinion is this: I still don’t see any wealth creation, nor any prospect of same, going on in this country. The national plan is to wait for the global economy to produce some FDI dividend in the hope that this will precipitate Bubble 2.0. It’s no plan at all. We don’t make dick and we don’t do dick in this country and that ain’t gonna change in 12 months. Very Ugly.

I think it will be bad. Ugly wont arrive for another 12 to 18 months afterwards until the down cycle gathers real momentum, savings having been depleted and the realisation having kicked in that we’re in this for the long haul.

We’re in the anti-Tiger phase now and are engaged in a process which demonstrates that Newtons Law applies to all life spheres. The general feeling abroad at the moment is actually reminiscent of the earlier years of the Tiger era when people tended to believe that things couldnt go up and up indefinitely and were nervously waiting for it all to fall flat. When that didnt occur they eventually began to believe in the Tiger as being a new reality. I get the impression that people still dont see the recession as being real in the sense that it is here to stay. They believe we are now at the bottom and we’re all going to be heading back to 2005 sometime soon. When acceptance of the new reality arrives and many see no light at the end of their personal tunnel, that is when the fear will kick in and things may get ugly.

We’ve a bit of a way to go yet.

All of these scenarios will occur that I’ve no doubt, I would add

  • large increase in business failures across all sectors of the economy (I know so many hanging by a thread)
  • large jump in emigration from June onwards as there will be no doubts by then that this country is firmly in the sh1t

On the unemployment front I can see a similar pattern to this year, Jan/Feb and maybe March to be bloodbaths before another gradual slowing in monthly rate again throughout the year. However increases in interest rates, the completion of infrastructural projects may accelerate a further economic decline and large rise in unemployment in second half 2010

I’m dreading 2010 but I’ll get myself sick if I think about 2011. :frowning:

Q2 2010 will probably see positive GNP growth, unemployment will peak later in the year.

We’ll see a continuing worsening due to positive feedback between commonly held beliefs about our predicament, and our economic behavior. In other words, self-fulfilling prophecy.

What will eventually cause this system to flip over and get better? I think it will be when debt is eventually paid down and the parasitic elements of society and its norms have been removed from our backs. I’m not referring to frontline public service or the unemployed or old etc. in any manner or form.

So, I think we’re a fair way off yet. Nothing new - optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com/?p=2320

I really dont know why this is even seen as an option for people.

The idea that a person can ‘just emigrate’ and ‘escape’ these problems is just more old-paddy-disguised-as-new-paddy thinking.

There is nothing anywhere else.
Here in the UK the economy is on the ropes.
Friends in the US, Spain and Oz say the same.

You’ll end up going abroad for 6 months, spending all your money and coming back broke to the same situation.

Oz is not the same. There was a lot of anxiety about the GFC but I think most people now believe it to be a phony war. We are getting back to business as usual. The real issue vis-à-vis the Irish is visas. There may be work but unless you have the proper visa its hard to get it. You are relying on being on the rather short list of in demand skills or having a company sponsor you, not by any means impossible, but it wont be so easy as to facilitate the escape of tens of thousands of Irish here. Most that I meet are just obsessed about getting their one year (Work Holiday visa) extended for a second year. But even then you are only allowed to work with the same employer for 6 months.

Most people I know who have been sponsored are also a little older with a few years work experience. For many just out of college or with limited work experience getting sponsored is a remote possibility.

Possibly, but at least the weather will be better…

Anyway, as others have pointed out, it is not the unemployable who will leave. It is the highly skilled. Should tax rates rise much further, they’ll leave jobs to do it. This is what happened in the 1980s/1990s, I don’t see why it’s not going to happen now. Jobs weren’t plentiful in the UK then, but there is a higher level of turnover in the economy.

Think it depends on what their area of expertise is (if they’ve even got one), what experience they’ve got, where they go, the visa legalities, and the language barrier. If you’re a skilled worker with experience, are able to legally work there, and have no problems with the language, in a country thats coming out of recession then you should do ok. The low skilled, the illegals, and those that can’t speak the language will do very badly, or just get used.

Work colleague of mine was in the US embassy (Dublin) last week doing an interview so as to get a work visa for a short term project in the US. He said there were loads of africans there as well all being refused, along with some irish who were being questioned as to why they wanted to move to the US when they had mortgages on property here (jingle, jingle). Most were refused as well.

htats something immediate and practical the “diaspora” could do, set up a sponsoring clearinghouse for oz…no freebie lunches and gaa tickets in it tho…

Bad as the Alt-A and Option ARM Crisis crisis starts to gather speed as the year progresses…

Next Jan (2011) is the key for me as this is when we will have a made a start on the Alt-A and Option Crisis…

Also we will have an idea of what government measures will be put in place to stop this or put it off for another day…

Also, if we are going to have Significant interest rate rises (which I doubt) then we will know that as well.

2011 always has being and always will be the year for me…This is the one where we will be seeing who is standing naked and who bluffs have being called…

There is no doubt but that there will be significant rate rises and they won’t all be coming from Frankfurt otherwise the two Brians will be pumping savage tax payers money into the banks for the forseeable future.

I think its really going to hit home after Christmas & with the budget cuts been applied early this year for people. A lot of people have been living the lifestyle they had in the boom years . Slowly there coming round to realising the boom years are gone. This budget and the subsequent job cuts we are likely to see early next year should bring people back to reality fast ( I hope for there sakes)