What will Brexit do to house prices?

Admin, feel free to move this to the general Brexit thread but I feel given the pin is mainly property related that it deserves its own thread.

What are peoples thoughts on Brexit and property prices? The Irish economy is expected to take a hit, while at the same time some large foreign firms are expected to relocate to Ireland. My view is that Dublin and near to Dublin prices will receive further upwards pressure as rents are drove up while the rest of the country will drop off as farming is expected to bear the brunt of the Brexit from an Irish point of view. What are peoples thoughts?

Super, you beat me to it ! Mods, please move my post if you think it’s neccessary.

Its too early and complex to say …lots of short term flux and noise but really depends on what happens next (12-24 months) …the question for me is what impact does it have on the 3 pillars of the Irish economy/property market.

  1. Low Corp Tax - No impact
  2. Low property Supply - No impact
  3. Low interest rates - No Impact

The most likely scenario for Brexit to affect Irish property prices is for UK-based people and entities who own Irish properties to liquidate.

On the upside, I suppose you could say that maybe a lot of UK trading companies will move to Dublin in order to keep their business within the EU and cause a new boom and rising property prices.

Either possibility is somewhat plausible.

I don’t see how it has an impact at all.

Why would they liquidate an asset held in a higher value currency (at least in the short term)? They’d be giving away free money.

Reading the “tea leaves” we have comments by the head of JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon as reported by Business Insider earlier this month

[

](Insider)
Speculation around the City has been up to 1 in 4 of JPM jobs could move.

Followed by an internal memo to staff in JPM today upon the declaration of the result, also reported by BI

[

](Insider)

Put that with this from RTÉ in May

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](Brexit - IDA Ireland reaching out to UK banks)

and, if Ireland does attract displaced City jobs, then unless IDA Ireland along with Central and Local Government can create financial services clusters in Western Kerry, or up along the Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo region where there’s significant vacancy rates in housing, then I suspect we’re going to see increased demand in Dublin, Cork, Limerick or possibly Galway to accommodate potentially hundreds, if not a couple of thousand well paid financial services roles.

Blue Horseshoe

This all assumes that Brexit doesn’t kick off a new global recession…

How the hell can it kick off a recession! There will be a recession soon, regardless of the outcome simply due to the unstable economic model that is currently in use.
Boom is followed by bust followed by boom, repeat.

How sure are you of that? I see 2 risks at least: first that EU coheres around harmonised (higher) corp taxes reducing/removing Ireland’s advantage, second that a newly “independent”/desperate UK/England+Wales dives very low on its own Corp tax to head off corporate defections or to attract new investments.

I would have figured that would be fairly self evident. Of course there’ll be recessions and booms but stuff normally acts as a catalyst… Like the uncertainty caused by a referendum which could result in an increased likelihood of a breakup of a mojor financial block

The UK is not in the Eurozone, so that argument is not all that strong. It’s quite likely to have more to do with the fact that the UK is a major contributor to the funding of the EU.

UK may break up, and it is a financial block.

Additionally, currently there is substantial trade between UK and EU. That may see an interruption/reduction.

Regarding UK being a funder of the EU, if they hope to have access to an open market they’ll probably still be funding it, same as Norway and Switzerland, for example; but obviously under those circumstances that will be without having any say on how the money is spent.

europe.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2 … 841499.htm

Well there you have it lads, seeing how media is tightly controlled in China, seems the Chinese are also standing around scratching their heads…

Scratching their heads in public, but laughing their socks off in private!
Divide and rule, one down, 27 to go. Britain now right where they want it - isolated. Rich pickings on that carcass. And best of all, Brits think brexit was their own decision! (martial arts par excellence)

I really get the feeling that the UK was their (Chinese) onramp into the EU but now that has been demolished with a ton of TNT.

On the other hand Putin must be laughing his head off, a weaker and more divided Europe suits his “expansion” plans and might lead to sanctions being dropped faster.

All that aside where will the UK now get thousands of experienced people to negotiate trade deals with dozens upon dozens of countries?

I’m sure Mike Ashley can drum up thousands of zero hours contracts on a no deal, no fee basis. What could possibly go wrong?

:laughing:

Back to the thread subject
theguardian.com/uk-news/201 … rexit-vote

telegraph.co.uk/property/hou … ty-predic/