What will Ireland look like in 5 years time?


#1


Hopefully thats going to form a plateau and then a downward trend . . . . . . of course its meaningless if it does and the reasons are because of emigration and the negative effects that would have on demand in the economy.

cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Dialog/ … ts/&lang=1

Went through some statistics from the CSO. Its clear we will lose a generation if this thing doesnt turn around quickly. Firstly the under 25 unemployment rate is massive, even the under 35 rate is shocking. The male unemployment rate is higher, almost double than women in some age groups. We already knew something like 1 in 8 men worked in the construction sector so not surprising men are hit harder then.

Implications of this…possibly lower birth rates? Or an unexpected jump in birth rates as one parent being unemployed can stay at home? Any conjectures ye might have are relevant as everyday it seems its a billion here or a billion there out from the pension reserve fund…

Its mostly men who a leaving the country
cso.ie/releasespublications/ … popmig.pdf
As well as having more female migrants, (I dont believe this was the case during the tiger years though Im open to correction), we are losing far more men than women. A deficit of 14,000 males on the male/female ratio per annum. Will obviously effect headship rates as its not too far of a logical stretch to say the migrants are of the ages with the highest unemployment rates. So this is a negative for birth rates for sure.





#2

Every second woman I see at the minute seems to be pregnant, and the maternity hospitals are jammed. A consideration for some maybe but I’ve heard it said that if you’re pregnant or on maternity leave you can’t be made redundant too handily. 8-


#3

Woohoo… there is my pension sorted.
Breed ye little fcukers! Breed like rabbits!

Of course it could be a sign that after shafting the current youngsters with NAMA, parents are feeling guilty and reckon having a few more kids might mean the burden isn’t so much spread between more :slight_smile:


#4

There will be rural depopulation . . … .

Also we should keep an eye on Dublin as a single entity for unemployment stats and use it as an advance indicator. Of course UK unemployment rates are an advance indicator of that again.


#5

Pardon my ignorance but what does the ILO stand for?


#6

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Labour_Organization


#7

Ta very much d&d.


#8

I didn’t realise I had a stake in owning a generation!


#9

thats what things will be like this year

I cant source an image of starving caucasians yet, will get back to you in 5 Years…


#10

#11

Yes, the State would rather give tax payers money to Nigerians to spend on expensive drawn out courtcases in the High Court, Supreme Court etc


#12

Same type in office.
Same ignorance in the populace.
Same gombeens in power (maybe a different badge)
Less of everything more black economy.
Europe calls the shots and Paddy doffs the forelock
Same behind the scenes manipulation of the state for the benefit of a small number of people.
More green taxes but no green income for the state just promises.
Elvis is found alive and well so is John Gormley ( the odds favour Elvis)


#13

Not quite true. Only people who have lived outside of the EEA for more than two years are affected by this, and the rule has been around for years. They have to live a year in Ireland before they become eligible for welfare.

You can be sure that if it wasn’t for EU rules, the government would be trying to pull this one on any returning emigrants
.


#14

Well, not quite true either. If you were in employment, you must have signed on in the other EEA country and have been in receipt of benefits to be entitled to benefits here. And then, I believe, you may only be entitled to the benefits you would have got in the other country.

You should, in any case, be entitled to Supplementary Welfare Allowance, so it is aall a bit crackers!


#15

This reads like ‘Get out and stay out!’.

Who would have thought eh… no irish need apply, now applies in Ireland :slight_smile:


#16

we are busy wasting cash elsewhere, stay away Irish.

bailii.org/ie/cases/IEHC/2009/H435.html

bailii.org/ie/cases/IEHC/2009/H432.html

bailii.org/ie/cases/IEHC/2009/H445.html

Irish, stay away, we have better ways to spend your relatives tax cash.


#17

Well, not quite true either :laughing:

Residence in the Common Travel Area counts as residence in our much vaunted Republic. In reality, the legislation says you have to satisfy five factors:

And welfare provides a typical example:

I imagine it didn’t take much to convince the Officer. After all, anyone forsaking the uber-generous provisions in Holland, Germany or France for this place must be absolutely serious about looking for work. :slight_smile:


#18

Eh, that’s allowance, not benefit, so subject to means test. And for someone who lost their job in the other country… try leaving employment in the other country ‘voluntarily’, e.g. the contract ends.


#19

Its very quiet right now.


#20

More clues as to what the place will look like

rte.ie/news/2010/0128/births.html

and

rte.ie/news/2010/0128/crime.html

The birth rate is still high relative to the past but I reckon outward migration is only just going to start and that is a early sign.