What will probably happen to Aer Lingus

I’d be interested to see if Aer Lingus, having just moved to Terminal 2 in the last year, would be moved to Terminal 5 per BA and Iberia.

On the subject of the other swallowees, wonder if the difference between them and Iberia is clearly defined non-British branding and primarily in a non-British market at take over…

I’ll be interested to see what the board response actually is though.

Unsurprisingly, seems like faulty logic from Matt. If IAG only wanted to win back transatlantic biz from provincial UK thu Dublin, surely a much less expensive way, would be to launch direct US service from Manchester etc. which they have had in the past, and which they could then terminate if unprofitable, rather than paying E1.3B for EI.
Much more likely they want the EI Heathrow slots for whatever expansion plans they have, long or short, and which are probably as much or more valuable than the rest of EI.

Surely make Dub the transatlantic hub for regional UK?
This would free up all those regional UK flights to Lhr, compete more effectively with KLM Hopper. Allow bigger airplanes on the Dub-Lhr route reducing frequency. Free slots would allow BA to offer more long-haul destinations from Lhr.

More consolidation leads to less competition, higher profits for IAG, higher prices for consumers.

Yes, that too. I was focusing on what I see as Matt’s faulty logic, as another example of why unions sometimes get into trouble. Rather than be thought a fool, better to stay quiet, than open your mouth and remove all doubt etc.

Given Aer Lingus’s total longhaul traffic for 2015 ( corporate.aerlingus.com/media/co … r-2014.pdf ) is 1.3 million, I find it difficult to believe that more than two thirds of them are transit from UK regional… from press releases, the Canadian and US expansions in 2014 were based on expected point-to-point increases in traffic from Dublin or to Dublin.

edit: oops, should have been 2014, not 2015…

One more reason to question Matt’s fitness for position. :laughing:

it looks like this will return 350m to the exchequer

independent.ie/business/iris … 40152.html

wouldn’t it be nice if the gov for once though outside the box and returned this as a rebate to the taxpayer but it will probably be swallowed by IW or the HSE to pay for more overruns due to mismanagement.

More likely used to buy the election.

Rail line from the airport to the City Centre :laughing:

would be lovely if that’s where it was directed. Doubt it would cover too much of the cost though.

‘As little as €300m’ could do it!
independent.ie/irish-news/ir … 36601.html

As little as 300 million euro could get Government skin in the game.

This is known as the Greyhound Bins Approach to taking over except for it will be 80% of the staff.

Don’t the State have to give 50% of asset sale to the Troika/bailout crowd?

Joan will give the same assurances on the routes to London as she did about Irish water not getting bonuses…
As you say in ~2 years some fait accompli will be presented. As a bonus we will pay more for tickets possibly with a much more limited service.

Some of the LHR slots are rented to United already, IIRC ?

Long game : BA need the slots OR need to dehub some of the traffic off to DUB

BUT a lot of BA’s big jets won’t get out of DUB as it stands to proper long haul dests, you need a much longer runway. so…

Risk vs Reward to the State says “don’t sell”.
Irish sovereign could today fund €300MM over thirty years at c. 1.9%; what will they do with the €300MM they get for selling that would justify that?

And, if their assurances prove misplaced, the potential negative impact to the State is significant.

But the Risk vs Reward for the political party in power screams “sell and buy votes”.

Haha, ain’t that the truth!

No US, and very few European airlines have any government stakes or ownership today. It’s mostly a 2nd, and 3rd world phenom now. Sooo last millennium!

It’s not as if the gummint has been an overly active investor. Anyone know if the gov has articulated any business rationale, beyond some vague unquantified sense of strategic access, for holding on?