Whats going on?

Just looking at recent events and i’m getting confussed.

*Dow jones +14k
*Bloomberg de-valuing the Euro
*Iseq gaining every day
*House prices (looking from my location) not dropping
*Global economy optimism

I thought we were all supposed to be doomed!!!

*where is the credit crunch?
*Why is the Dollar under valued?
*Why are stocks gaining again?
*Why hav’nt house prices fallen drastically?
*Where is the global slump?

Seriously, it does not make sense!!!
Im a bit puzzled
Either all the bears are to pessimistic, or the bulls are over optomistic,
I can’t figure it out Whats happening.>??

My own hunch is that we have ostrich syndrome(sticking ones head in sand) and that all the doom and gloom is coming and in bucketfulls, yet the average punter is refusing to believe it. Does this mean a post christmas collapse???

Try reading all of the informed posts throughout the 'pin.

I’d doubt I’m the only one who doesn’t feel like recapping it all.

Yawn,
Try reading the original post…
I read this pin every day so no need to recap.

sorry to have bothered

Jeys. XX

Whats happening is that the US has joined battle with it’s recession. The Fed has decided (as they always do in these instances) that the best means of defence is attack. They are firing salvos of liquidity at the deflationary monster while declaring loudly that more ammuniition is being rushed to the front (ammunition made in China and Japan). That’s what’s happening.

https://simonarcher.ca/wp-content/discountandfedfunds.gif

*The pink bars mark the beginning of US recessions.

It’s called monetary inflation, the central banks in Europe and America recently monetised billions and billions of debt, since the US economy runs a huge trade and budget deficit, other countries such as China, Japan and Russia and the OPEC countries holding large FOREX reserves, that become less and less valuble, are converting these pieces of paper into something tangible(sovereign funds) they are diversifying into the US stock market and buying Euros and commodities Thats why stock markets worldwide are going up.
We are about a year behind the US in terms of house price deflation, have no fear, this time next year, we will be seeing the same falls. (Will Austin Hughes do a Jim Cramer?) For example bank staff are telling their personal friends looking for mortgages right now, to hold off until next year for 20% savings.

If the average punter is refusing to believe it then,
why are the number of house sale transactions dropping?
Why are the house prices falling?
Are any house prices in your area rising and by how much?
Why is the Irish central bank now having weekly calls with the banks instead of monthly?
Why are construction workers being laid off?
Why is the government tax take down?
Why are lenders raising interest rates even though the ECB did not?
Why did Dan McLaughlin and Austin Hughes get their forecasts for HPI so badly wrong for 2007?
Why did the bears call it correctly and put their money where their mouth is?
Why are the banks moving in on some developers and giving the rest a hard time?

Being a bear is not about being a doom and gloomer, its about turning a profit and surviving in a downturned market, you cannot do this unless you take your heads out of the clouds and take a realistic view of what is happening, what the likely consequences are, and taking your position to profit from the trade. Like it or not bears are VI’s too, except we speculate on the downside.

Some of us are just gloomy :cry:

Cheer up, we can always talk about the weather :wink:

That sir, is what makes internet forums ace…
super reply

Thank you!!! 8DD

Nice one Green Bear.

The gift of “intelligence” is mostly abused, I agree entirely.

Are you on the blob or what!

:unamused: sheesh

Well, not only are you dead lazy in your willingness to analyze it appears but you’re also neanderthal in your expression…

Good luck with all your future endeavours.

Who is Tom exactly when he is at home???

Oh dear, that’s some good shit he’s got… :unamused:

For a MOD your trolling is somewhat unacceptable
I thought the OP was a reasonable observation
I a bit stunned as to your elitist attitude, but you have your opinion.
Yes you probably spend every waking hour reading this forum, and yes you probably can recite every damn post word for word, but i have limited time and look to this forum and the people who post here for inteligent analysis and intresting comments. I am a lurker of sorts, but that is all i can do given my circumstances.

If you, as a mod stand for what this forum aspires too, and your negative attitude is condoned by those who set up this pin (OW) then indeed, good luck with my future endevours because a forum who’s moderators and referees attack people for lack of knowledge is a forum which is not worth bothering with.

I’ve read many of your posts TUG and you do not suffer fools gladly, yet you are more than willing to pull people up on trolling or insults or any other antisocial behaviour.

Anyhows
Best of luck,

I’ll hit the “ignore Author” button if i can be bothered to find it.

Today’s Telegraph

blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/ambrosevanspritchard/september07/derangedbull.htm

I’m not so sure how long the current bull run will last; could be days could be months. But the fundamentals, wont somebody think of the fundamentals. :cry:

Ah yes, I am the terrible persecutor!!!

The harsh regime of the 'pin strikes again! :unamused:

EDIT BTW: I didn’t attack anyone nor would I, for a lack of knowledge. Recap thread requests especially when they are so wide ranging get on my wick, that is all. Plus your retort was in poor taste, I thought.

Why can’t we all just get along?!

I was glad of this summation of the current state of affairs, it can be hard to read all the posts some days! Cheers Green Bear and Duplex!

This is the internet.

Green Bear - what are you investing in now?

I was thinking that stock markets are reacting to inflation. That inflation is a global phenomenon and that it is understated by central banks figures and is only going one way. It will accelerate in europe if the ECB does not raise rates. I think investing in shares may be a good hedge against inflation (but not Irish stocks - maybe utilities, telecoms etc, non-cyclicals)

Does this make any sense?