It is certainly out of left field. They should really have stuck with Hurd for another while before deciding what sort of company they want to be. A steady decline into irrelevance is the most likely path from here.
Its trivial to find a “material change” in a deal like the Autonomy one if HP decides to bail. Any competent securities lawyer should be able to come up with half a dozen reasons in a few days digging. As for Meg, despite some duff calls at eBay she is far more respected in the Valley than Apotheker ever was. Frankly, he’s was a rather bizarre choice as the Autonomy deal, the WebOS fiasco and the lets get out of computers “strategy” showed.
I expect the Autonomy deal to collapse into lawsuits sooner or later and then quietly die. Its not like that has not happened before.
If the Autonomy deal doesn’t make sense to Meg she’ll pull it - which is exactly why she won’t. It’s no surprise so many executives at the Company are opposed to it though. A strategic shift like that is bound make create huge waves at a firm with the history of HP.
Put my CV up on monster the other night (Im in the tech sector). Three calls the next morning before 10am from Agencies. One of them had 3 positions at least two of them I’d be interested in.
Just out of interest, how many years’ experience do you have, and what sort of experience: development, pm, test, etc?
I’ve got circa 15 years’ exp, and found moving more difficult 6 months ago than when I had fewer years’ exp. I did successfully move, so it wasn’t impossible, but the initial interest I received was tempered when wage profile and experience came into play. Also, I’ve mostly back-end server-side development experience, and many of the jobs were front-end, J2EE type of work.
I’d have 15 years experience on the QA side of things, mostly in the very back-end servers, transaction handling and databases etc. I can hardly imagine moving and the issues its going to raise as Ive built my day to day life around my current job schedule and logistics, but I think if the chance is there for me to do better it will be worth a temporary reset. Hopefully!
Yeah, moving jobs is a pain in the ass; first year or so seems to be mostly getting up to speed and settling in. It can be worth it, though – it certainly has been for me. Less stress, for starters!
Best of luck with it, whichever you decide.
Also, moving seems to be the easiest (only?) way to get a raise at the moment.
A truism really in the tech sector. Familiarity tends to breed contempt. Most of the performance management systems are designed to stop large raises working through. Only a few Irish companies are smart enough to make a real YoY link between performance and real financial reward. ( Now that I’ve said that I can’t think of a single example, and I work for one of the largest indigenous ones ) )
From experience, bear in mind the agencies scour LinkedIn, Monster and other job boards for people like yourself putting CV’s up. The industry works by one team building CV’s for their database and the other constantly ringing round for job leads. Then they hope to match. Then they hope to get an interview. Then they hope to get candidate excepted. It’s very much a cold hard numbers game.
Spread your CV amongst a number of agencies. Be careful and take note of all jobs and companies your CV has been sent to, otherwise you get crossover and then a fight in sues as to which agency submitted CV first. Often companies resolve these by just excluding the candidate. Don’t take too many agencies or job submissions on a once. Hide you CV on monster then. Try submitting for jobs directly on jobsites, either direct companies or agencies.
Best of luck.
Jmc: You should probably let these lads know that it’s trivial to find a material change…
It’s a pity about them. Fingers crossed anyway…
So a bunch of bottom feeders in London are desperately hoping that their gamble pays off…pure wishful thinking. Sure, brokers and hedgies are such a great source of objective opinion on deals in play which they have an angle on. Have you seen the returns YTD for the self same hedgies? I think it was in the minus teens % for August. No wonder they are desperate for the Autonomy deal to go through. No QE2 to save them in the 4Q this year.
As we have established before you seem to have absolutely no idea how the business works or seem to have ever seen the inside of a corp like HP, seen how these deals are structured, or have any idea of the why and the how of these deals when they either go ahead or get killed. Basically sounding like a penny stock operator…
HP’s army of lawyers as part of the prep for the deal will have already written up the preliminary briefs and depositions to unwind the deal if and when the ceo/ board decide to kill it. Plus there are already several stock holder suits in the the offing and I think at least one class action on the deal in the pipeline. As I said any senior lawyer could prepare half a dozen water tight outs in a morning without breaking a sweat.
You know, I could give the guys on Page Mill a call (been in there a few times, drove past it only last week going to another meeting) but I know what the answer would be if I restated what I have written here in the form that is used for preparing depositions (I’ve done those too), thanks for you concern, but we are already well aware as part of our due diligence of what you have brought to our attention…blah…de…blah.
Bone headed deals like these ones are always done for pure political reasons and now the prime mover is gone that will allow the manifest negatives of the deal to eventually drag it down. Its all going to be politics.
I expect a bunch of delaying tactics until the current political crisis in the board settles down. Then if the ceo decides to run with it, for purely political reasons, it will be at least 3/6 month plus before it becomes obvious. If the ceo decides to extricate themselves from the fiasco then if any of the shareholder suits gain traction then that will probably be used to delay and ultimate kill the deal. In deals like this, delay is nearly always equal to death. Other wise, pick you poison pill for the deal. There are lots they can use.
Your ilk making a play may love the deal but everyone in the business thinks its the most profoundly stupid deal since Time Warner bought AOL. Another pure political play by a weak and uncertain CEO trying to gain time. And another acquisition of a company that was based purely on an accounting scam. Yeah, sure, marketing costs can be capitalized…
and so the story continues
Oracle calls out whats-his-name, the CEO, for lying about shopping the company and some more info about them fudging the numbers comes out.
yeah, because Ellison is a trustworthy individual with no agenda and no axe to grind with HP
funnily enough, the data in the share price graph runs for 12 months up to January 2011 !
It would be interesting if the 75% is not reached and HP do give additional time (considering someone claimed their army of lawyers were looking to back out)…
If jmc can’t see what’s going on here, I’m sure not going to spell it out for him.
I wonder if he’ll have the grace to congratulate me when the deal goes through?
Eh… surprise, surprise…Autonomy was being shopped around hard before they found a sucker to bite. Lynch spouts off in public and Oracle slaps him down with the sales spiel from earlier in the year. So why did Lynch feel the need to say in public they were not being shopped? Deal falling apart?
Ellison is a complete bastard. But a bastard one could do business with if you have your shit together. If not, expect to be utterly destroyed with no quarter given.
I’ll take a salesman killing machine over a blowhard spoofer any day. Turns out Lynch is another Kevin O’Leary after all.
Come back in 5 years time and we’ll talk about who was right or wrong. That’s how long it generally takes situations like this to fully play out. Lots of precedent. You’d know that if you actually knew the history of the business. But with Apotheker gone and no real support for the deal inside HP expect the lawsuits to start sooner rather than later. And they tend to run for years and years. Got to give those lawyers something to do.
If I were Lynch I’d be worried that manipulation of stock price by fraud opens him up to a RICO. It does not matter where the stock was traded if it involve US domiciled subsidiaries. It just needs one Fed DA to get interested in the subject and pretty soon Lynch may find himself behind bars. Just ask Michael Milken how those RICO lawsuits play out. Very nasty beasts.
Due respect to all, can we split the Autonomy stuff out into its own thread ?>
and BTW it was Mark Hurd who bought Palm for WebOS before the inevitable…
Thanks, slasher. Although more than 20 years investing has taught me to treat the success or failure ‘imposter’ just the same - there are always lessons learned.
Ok. Although, I tend to agree with Jesse Livermore’s assertion that the market is never wrong. And besides, five years is a lifetime in this business.