When does a Bottom become an Arse ? - IBF Stats

When the banks spot it :frowning:

independent.ie/breaking-news … 57921.html



**€8bn in lending in 2009 down from €40bn in 2006 . 80% down . **

Here’s what they said in February 2007 when the market was already crashing.


This is all that needs to be pointed out to all those “Will X***** re-inflate the property bubble??” posts.

*****insert as appropriate: pent-up demand/smart money/cash-rich bubbleistas/politicians/Central Banks etc etc

They would have been The Spin on the Q4 2006 figures then

In Q4 2006 they lent €10.34bn

In Q2 2009 they lent €2.17bn

It has “moderated” by 79% in that time but I take it that is not what they were predicting back then .

Only one third of the Q2 mortages are to FTBs/Investors, the rest are top-ups, re-mortgages and movers. So we’re looking at maybe 15k mortgages being taken out by FTBs & Investors over the course of the year. Be interesting to see how many properties are built this year, I expect it will be more than 15k.

The seasonal pick-up is almost much weaker than last year (~23%), these numbers are abysmal. Though we may be near the bottom for transactions, simply because if we drop much lower, we’ll hit zero.

I was shocked when I heard that. Only 3000 FTB mortgages in the last quarter, and that was actually an improvement on the one before. I’m sure Q3 will be significantly better, but these figures are dreadful. There must be well over 100’000* empty FTB properties out there.

*Any guesses at a more accurate number?

IBF found that more houses sold in the Spring than in Winter. Which of course, has has been the case for more years than I care to remember.

this is what I was saying last November.
How the hell could we expect banks to keep lending when the securitization market was dead - it simply didn’t add up.
It was like expecting people to maintain their swimming speeds as the water empties out of a swimming pool.

If things are bad now, imagine what securitization market will be open to Irish banks post-NAMA, who will buy loans off them knowing that there is a massive overhang ready to be unleased into the market at any stage, wiping out much of the collateral to loans!

I think we should include repo’s as a transaction. Isn’t it in fact a negative transaction? That way we can have a number less than zero.

I see holes all over the gaff


Why are you shocked that FTB numbers are so low?

I am shocked that FTB numbers are higher than zero - with NO net new job creation and rising unemployment, who exactly are these 3000 people who had not bought but suddenly can afford to do so?

Maybe its the 5,000 people I was shocked to hear have been hired by the Civil Service this year, despite a new hiring embargo announcedd by the gov! (link - was on one of the Sunday broadsheets front page)