When does (serious) inflation kick in?




Mr Lane cautioned that while most of the euro zone’s high inflation is an ‘imported shock that will fade away over time’, he warned that ‘fading away from inflation doesn’t mean that these high prices will reverse. Europe may have to get used to higher prices.’

Inflation in Ireland is tipped to hit 6.7% this year, a level not seen in Ireland for decades.

Gerry Cross, director of financial regulation, policy and risk at the Central Bank, will today outline to the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform his continuing concerns that the number of people with mounting mortgage arrears is not being tackled.

Ah so not transitory anymore Phillip eh? That was a quick turnaround


The source seems to be https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/QEC2022SPR_0.pdf
6.7% seems to be the estimate for CPI, not 100% clear if this is total CPI including food and energy prices or Core CPI?
Gas flows to the main gas pipeline from Russia to Germany fell to zero yesterday (although other pipelines to Europe still operating normally)
Fertiliser price increases and truck strikes (meaning perishables are lost due to lack of transportation) will be increasingly affecting food prices.
EU and Japan have said they wont pay in roubles for energy but the rouble gained 10% over the last day or so indicating that somebody is buying it. Hopefully some mutually acceptable payment terms are agreed.


Good man Phil. Did you know Hurley well in your day?



All by design. All of it.


Well conflict with Russia is popular, the Germans are getting ready to ration gas, and a growing number of clowns in Ireland want to join NATO. Will rising energy prices cause a rethink, the Covid experience suggests, no



Couldn’t find accurate source to verify 50% claim? (Perhaps some element of Chinese whispers/sensationalism added to the original story. )


Due to sharply increased costs, the discounter Aldi increased prices again on Monday. Meat, sausage and butter would then be “significantly more expensive,” said Aldi-Nord communications chief Florian Scholbeck of the dpa in Essen. The reason for this is the higher prices that Aldi has to pay its suppliers.



German Retailers To Increase Food Prices By 20-50% On Monday


when according to the German Retail Association (HDE), consumers should prepare for another wave of price hikes for everyday goods and groceries with Reuters reporting that prices at German retail chains will explode between 20 and 50%:

The “Reuters” link points to

There is one original source I could find, but it’s more detailed and less sensational.

Secondary Source:


ALDI stock the cheapest goods so they’ll be first to increase prices.
Price increases on these goods will obviously affect the poorest the hardest.

From what I’ve read, there is a real chance of many large famines this year and next.
This will affect the poorest countries, while westerners will complain (justifiably) about of the cost of living.


I have developed a great interest in gardening. Veggies mostly, plus some flowers like chamomile etc. It’s not much I suppose & mainly helps me psychologically, but not much else to do other that stashing some rice/pasta etc.


I honestly don’t think we’ll need to stash.

Although if you’re thinking that way get some spare pepper and salt.
It lasts a long time and will make rationed food taste way better.


Yeah but it’s really just virtue signalling by BOI, the number of people qualifying for this is going to be small. I’ve just completed the paperwork on switching from Avant to BOI, fixing for 7 years at 1.95% and I’m guessing we are weeks away from more rate rises across the board, lot of discontent from the remaining tracker holders if ECB raise by a percent in the net 12 months.


I think you mean switching from BOI to Avant? BOI don’t offer 1.95% as far as I can tell and Avant are offering very good fixed rates. I like the 2.25% up to 15 year offer.

By the way, if switching to Avant from Ulster or KBC, they give you €1500 towards legal fees. Don’t know if that’s the case with switching from BOI. It might just be due to those banks exiting the market.


So the EU is going to ban Russian coal and oil. This won’t be money supply induced price inflation it will be crushed supply inflation. And it is entirely deliberate by the EU oligarchs. These crooks are driving the economy off a cliff. We are going to be cold and hungry.

  • The Federal Reserve increased its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, in line with market expectations.
  • In addition, the central bank outlined a program in which it eventually will be reducing its bond holdings by $95 billion a month.
  • The rate move is the largest since 2000 and is in response to burgeoning inflation pressures.
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell underlined the commitment to bringing inflation down but indicated that raising rates by 75 basis points at a time “is not something the committee is actively considering.”

The Euro is down at $1.06 these days. Almost €:$ parity. It was $1.20 a year ago. No time to be making shopping trips to NYC dawling



There is no blinding these people with BS. Things are accepted once proven.

But global mismanagement of the fuel system – following very bad advice that the old can be now starved of capital and dismantled because erroneous fanatics have led to believe that a new system is ready – is chilling proof that the balance of power has gotten out of hand.Hordes of academic social scientists flood our government with hugely biased and ignorant energy policy advice, which lands in sympathetic ears because our governments are full of similar social scientists. But can any of them change a tire? And what do they produce? Let them eat policy?


The Bank expects U.K. inflation to rise to roughly 10% this year as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war and lockdowns in China. It has also warned prices are likely to rise faster than income for many people, deepening the cost of living crisis.