When will PTSB/ESRI YoY return to positive territory?

When will PTSB/ESRI YoY return to positive territory?

  • 2008
  • 2009
  • 2010
  • 2011
  • 2012
  • 2013 and beyond…

0 voters

Will thepropertypin.com still be around?

I am not expecting a return to postive territory until Spring 2011.

It could go Japanese.

I’m amazed that on one hand there is so much contempt for how corrupt a place Ireland is, yet on the other hand 45% of people think the PTSB report will accurately reflect things and won’t turn positive until 2013.

If you really believe that the place is corrupt then surely the logical conclusion is that regardless of what’s really going on, the YoY reports will turn positive again very soon, perhaps quarter 1 of 2008.

Those who count the votes decide the results.


We might just get a rising market again in Autumn 2011. How do i know?
Election time again in 2012!

Seriously, this is gonna take years to unwind before it rises again imho.

Would it be a smart electoral strategy for the Gov’t to start turning ultra-bearish on property?

The Australian property market had a strong upturn after a shortish trend downwards. Maybe Ireland could do something similar.

What I’m thinking is that by spouting ultra-bearish stuff, the Gov’t and State could cause housing to fall by 50% in 2008. This’d make them hideously unpopular for the remainder of the noughties among those who profited from the boom. But buyers would be grateful and, by 2012, prices should start to be on a major upswing.

The last baby boom of 1979 will be turning 33 by then and desperate to buy.

Nope - the pain of losing the current yearly injection of 54bn (down from a peak of 60bn) in borrowed money, especially all at once, would be too great.

Remember, one way or another, the government gets its hands on much of that cash, and that’s whats been funding the expansion of public sector spending - if that money stops, the 80s cutbacks will look like a minor scratch in comparision.

Careful with the Australian example.

Prices not as high as Ireland (in relative terms as well as absolute)
Credit growth no as explosive as in Ireland
Interest rate cycle has not come to an end in Australia and this could be a dead cat bounce.
The geographical size of Australia makes it a number of distinct markets (e.g. Perth is 5 hours flight from Sydney and rides the commodities boom and natural gas exploration investment cycle big time)

Resource boom in Australia - credit boom in Ireland.
Big Difference. Anyone been to Fremantle in the past year? Did you see the the container ships queued up on the horizon as far as the eye can see to dock? Or what about the trains that are 2 to 3 KM long filled with Iron ore?

Big difference people

Meh, the state can simply rezone a few thousand hectares of land from ag to resi, then tax the bejeepers out of the landowners to pay the shortfall.

The landowners needn’t be hurt too bad by this. They can pay their tax bill in newly-rezoned land, which the state can then sell on. Even at a vastly-reduced price from current levels, the state will be able to raise many billions without hurting working people or the rich.

The landowners will be overjoyed: they begin with 10 hecs of ag land, and finish with 3 hecs of zoned land (or 5 and 5, or 6 and 4, or what-evuh)

Is fremantle very near to Sydney? Because that’s where the housing boom is

Mr. Ponzi, is that you?

Well the whole scheme of unbacked currencies has been described as a Ponzi pyramid, yet only the German mark or Zim dollar has failed spectacularly so far.

I’m saying that, in the short term of 1 or 2 years, this method of money raising would be lucrative. Provided they put a total stop to it by 2009, say.

Zoned land is Ireland’s most highly-priced commodity, and it’s free to create. It could plummet 90% in price and still be super-profitable.

Housing boom is in Perth too, which is beside Fremantle


What is the common denominator? SECURITISATION

I believe that is c. $130bn now.

Here is a table that will be of interest to you; giving the situation for each city

The site in which the last quote comes from has values for all the major countries as well.


Well, who’ll take (I assume we’re on first name terms by now) isn’t the Dublin price about fifty G too low?

Not anymore :wink: