Figures out today show 4,300 new house completions in July and 32,000 in the first 7 months of 2008. Where are they coming from? Based on registrations late last year, I expected the monthly total to be down to 2,000 by now. I put a 500 euros bet on with Paddy Power in April that the final total for 2008 would be under 50,000. Looking a bit dodgy now.
Where are the new house completions coming from?
Never seen that bet before.
What were the odds on it?
Anecdotal most builders that I know that are still working are scheduled to wrap up in October, and the anecdotal reports we are getting of the number of people signing on at the moment imply completions are taking a substantial fall. I will be very surprised if we see over 50,000 completions this year.
I got “30,001 - 40,000” completions at 5/2, but didn’t risk anywhere near as much
I also got 7/4 on ‘How much will the average house price change for 2008? - Over 9% Decline’, and I’m kicking myself for not betting the house (so to speak) on that one
Housing completions are meangingless.
Its the starts that count.
Apartment blocks and housing estates take 2-3 years to complete.
Even one-off houses take at least 18 months.
Many of these completions were started in the boomtime of 2006.
What would be very interesting to see is a comparison of c2006 starts with c2008 completions.
Wonder how many starts have been mothballed ?
I wouldn’t worry as completions will be collapsing for the remainder of the year. January completions were something like 7000 in January, 4300 in August, you only need it average circa 4000 for Sept-Dec and I’d imagine Oct, Nov, Dec will be very poor.
As Magnus Magnusson said: “I’ve started so I’ll finish”
Or as Magnus O’Magnusson said ‘‘I’ve started so I’ll mothball’’
51,742 completions in 2008 fxcentre.com/news.asp?2362217
I’m shocked they built that many. The oversupply is getting oversupplier.
Hard luck bert that’s very close but no cigar!
The suffix ier is becoming ierier.
I guess all the builders bought into Tom Parlons propaganda…
“hey hey, if no one is building houses this year, we might as well”
problem is… they all did
The real test will be how many will be completed in 2009 excluding one offs there will always be a demand for one-offs, unless mass migration occurs.
There will be no mass migration [apart from the foreign workers returning home] as workers that went down to Australia last fall are already starting to return home to join the dole queues here and no bank is going to lend to these guys to build one-off houses.
Or to quote the immortal words of Jim Bowen:
“Lets see what you wud 'ave won…”
Just totted up the previous ten year totals and it produces the staggering figure of 656,521
Thats 660,000 houses built in just ten years for a population of just four million people,I can only see two possible outcomes from this:
1)A complete collapse of the banking system that financed these properties leading to them being sold off at a fraction of their original value, or even in the worst case scenarios, their ultimate demolition.
2)Mass inward migration from mainly non EU countries to fill the empty stock.
Considering the banksters look to be emerging from this crisis with even more power and influence over the government than they had before it all blew up, which one do you think is most likely to happen?
You seem to be implying loads of immigrants from… where? Nigeria? Turkey? ?? The Eastern Europeans are beginning to head home or for greener pastures, many Irish are making plans to go anywhere that speaks the only language they know - why in God’s name would anybody be making plans to head HERE? Unless the Government are going to offer full citizen rights and fianancial support to non-EU immigrants? That’s a bit Daily Mail, no?
Scenario (1), alas, is the only viable(!) one.
His idea is that the government will bail out the banks/builders by (somehow) encouraging immigrants from other countries to come to Ireland and live in the empties. Just when you think you’ve heard everything.