Where the market currently stands (by an estate agent)

:astonished: Just saw this



Im an estate agent (can hear the boos and hisses already).
I work in good south dublin areas - high prices, healthy demand (usually).
Been reading all the links about peoples opinions on where they think the market is and where they think its going etc.

Just to set the record straight from someone in the business 6 days a week.

  1. in general, the south dublin market is down 15% - 20% on last year.
    I am talking actual sale price, you can throw guides out the window.

  2. in gereral, the south dublin market is down 15% - 20% if, that is, you can get a bid and hence a sale.

  3. I have 21 properties for sale - more than ive ever had before.
    3 have bids.
    no competing bids.
    bids are low, and much lower than what the owner wants / needs.
    maybe 1 will sell.

  4. since 1st January, I have sale agreed 12 properties.
    10 have fallen through, 2 sold (at substantially lower prices).
    Out of the 10 that fell through, only 1 has had another bid since.
    As its lower than the first bid, that sale aint going anywhere.

  5. i refuse to take on apartments because the owners have an over-inflated opinion of their price.
    The market for apartments has bombed.
    Irish people want to live in houses - apartments are temporary.
    There is a colossal amount of new apartments on the market making it practically impossible to shift 2nd hand ones without a massive reduction in price.

hence the domino effect :
someone selling an apartment (and buying a house) will get much less than they initially calculated. Consequently, they can now only bid much less for the house. The house seller refuses the offer because it is too low (even though it may be the highest and best price out there). Therefore, both sale agreeds fall through and inventories build up.
Guide prices may stay the same throughout (not reflecting the real lower prices).
Although guide prices stay the same, it masks the reality that real prices are falling.

Incidentially, the sellers determine guide prices - not estate agents. We provide the guide, they provide the price !
We must follow their instructions no matter how bad we tell them it is.
Hence guide prices reflect what they are looking for, not the real market.

On occasions, some people are lucky enough to sell their apartment for a high price. These people can then go on to successfully buy a house at a high price.
Hence some houses are still going for reasonably high prices.
But, i cannot stress enough, this is generally a rare event.

  1. I do not sell new developments but i know a lot of developers very well.
    Most new developments are having a torrid time.
    Developers will accept a much lower price than what they are quoting.
    There is a serious overhang from the past 7 months and developers of these properties are trying to get out before the new crop hits the market.

  2. Some developments are doing well.
    These are housing developments (NOT APARTMENTS), in good locations and well priced.
    Well priced can mean the same price as last year but with much better furnishings and contents, hence, same price - but much more for it.
    Or, in effect, if the house had the same (lack of) contents as last year, it would achieve a lower price.

This is extremely important as it is providing ‘evidence’ that house prices are not falling and we are heading for a ‘soft landing’.
This is WRONG.
Last year house price €1,000,000.
This year house price €1,000,000 (but with €100,000 extras).
Officially no change in house prices.
Reality, house prices down €100,000.

Dont be fooled, Developers know the markets gone.

8) Some of the best known estate agents are (quietly) closing down offices and letting people go.
The ones that havent already, are planning it.

  1. Banks are looking for reasons / excuses not to give out money.
    This has taken even me by surprise, as in all my years of experience (ok only 6), ive never come across this.
    Out of the 10 sale agreeds that i mentioned earlier that fell through, 6 were because of banks saying ‘NO’.

  2. In hindsight, the high of the market was in April 2006.
    Prices stayed high until august/september, with an unusually large amount of activity in between (no summer lull).
    Buyers disappeared sometime around august/september and consequently so did the prices.
    This happened before minister mcdowells comments on stamp duty and whilst it didnt start the process, it certainly hasnt helped entice the first time buyers back into the market.
    There are buyers out there - but most are sitting on the sidelines.

And YES, that means if you were unlucky to buy anytime after March 2006, you are looking at a loss should you wish to sell.

Please note that the above 10 points are FACTS !
They are not projections or opinions or assumptions, but based upon real deals.
My experiences are not unusual and generally reflect those of my colleagues and estate agent friends across the entire south dublin area.
I am not saying the markets doomed as i cannot predict the future.
However, it has certainly dropped to the extent that many of my comrades in the business are starting to look at the posibility of changing jobs.

Its an excellent post. It would be great if we could get irrefutable evidence to back this stuff up! Until this information is formally out the VIs will always be able to spin.

It’s quite a post, alright. It comes across as an accurate appraisal of the market at the moment, when you look at the amount of info on price drops pouring into this site. Would be nice to know if it was a genuine post.

He wouldnt be the first EA to call it like it is though. I’m sure there was a (honest) EA posting on here a few months ago who held the same views.

It seems that a different poster on daft doesn’t believe there are any problems at all!

*This country has never been so well off.
Prices are never gonna fall - too much demand - too many people with too much money.

Its just bitter begrudgers who missed the boat who are wishing for a crash

The market is stalled but prices are readjusting because of the interest rates hence some price drops but its nothing to worry about. *

Is this Bertie?


This attitude just makes my blood boil. Irish people seem to have absolutely no conception about how wealth is actually created. It’s as if they believe that money just appears in Celtictigerland by magic, and will continue to so so in perpetuity. How? Where’s the money coming from? Who is creating this wealth? Who is earning these super salaries? Smoke and frigging mirrors.

Public sector + Housing + multinationals + retail/hospitality = our economy. Good luck with that boys and girls.

On top if that, I think that people nowadays assume that all their friends and colleagues are earning shedloads. But I have discreetly brought this topic up with friends and aquantinces recently and I get the distinct impression that peoples’ bottom lines are coming under serious pressure. And yet there is the assumption that there are, to quote Celtictigerman above, “too many people with too much money.” Bullshit.

(BTW, the only people I know who are loaded are teachers. LOADED. Good salaries, great nixers in summer/evenings, prefernetial mortgage/insurance rates etc. I don’t begrudge this one bit - good teachers should be amongst the most valued workers in society - but it is symptomatic of the bloated, pampered, unproductive public sector in this country which has been disgracefully bribed by this deceitful, repellent, negligent government.)

As regards the OP in this thread, I always look for the ring of truth in any controversial opinion, and this certainly has it.

I thought it was one of you guys with a moustache and a pair of glasses on…trying to stir things up :wink:

I’m always amazed at the oft-quoted “average industrial wage” of about €35K.

I have a lot of friends, most of them well educated professionals with 10 years or more (in some cases, lots more) under their belts. I don’t know what it’s like in Dublin, but here in Galway most of them are earning 30-40K. Yeah, yeah, everyone *claims *they earn €60K, but I work in IT and I can see the actual data :laughing:

Everyone I know working in “ordinary” i.e. non-graduate, non-professional jobs, is earning €20-€25K.

So how does that work out to an “average industrial” wage of €35K?

Obviously, all the public sector people I know are creaming it in on fecking megabucks - for feck all work. But private sector wages in all sectors have been under serious pressure for 6, 7 years now.

I thought that was blindjustice being sarcastic again.

As I’ve posted elsewhere on this forum, I did not miss the boat, my house is worth 400K (mortgage 50k) and if it goes down to €200K in value I would be delighted as trading up would be a lot cheaper, or I could buy an investment property that the rent will cover the mortgage and some, or I could buy a nice holiday home etc. etc., there are many reasons why people who own property can take something positive out of a possible crash, every cloud has a silver lining etc.

The trouble is the few manufacturing companies left are bringing in engineers, technicians and operators from Eastern Europe and paying them €8-€11 an hour so any Irish lads trying to get into these places now will only get the same money. This is fact, I see it first hand, and of course we saw it with Irish Ferries.

Were you forced to take a private sector job?

I know I wasn’t forced to take a public sector one… :unamused:

I made my choice on the basis of location, security and prospects and I’ve also applied for another state job on the basis of extra education that I’ve undertaken, which God forbid, the state paid for during my time working at my current job…

It mightn’t be right but the nature of the state versus the private sector wasn’t exactly a state secret and for a long time, my private sector buddies were doing better than me but now the shoe is on the other foot! :open_mouth:

EDIT: Apologies for that bit of a rant, it’s just I hate this us and them mentality people seem to have about the state versus private sector…

Clubman? Is that you? :slight_smile:


The dark truth at the heart of the 'pin is revealed. :smiling_imp:

Yes it was me - I was very very bored lol

Funny how that kind of attitude is just laughed at now whereas that kind of attitude was commonplace and sometimes represented an argument against a crash - which people believed!

I think you are referring to me.(I think you can click something to check my previous posts here? - Im also ‘Murray’ on AAM - Im the EA that sold my PPR last yr :open_mouth: )

BTW - The other EA calls it perfectly.

Great site BTW… :slight_smile:

So basically, we’re bajaxed, like?

Thanks for heads up Murrayo, much appreciated.

so that’s why you can ‘spare’ so much time to act as a moderator for this site :wink:

Are all the moderators public servants?

Yip. That was you. Fair play.