Which mortgage type?

You can get a 10 yr fix from AIB on a LTV of 92% at an interest rate of 4.65% (as far as I can remember) and if your LTV is 49% or lower you can get a 10 yr fixed @ 4.5% from Permo and these are what I consider to be very very good value for the period of time they cover.
Where the feck evilal is getting canny mcsavvy outta is beyond me because there is only one way interest rates will move in the next 12 months and thats up and if I add to that (if my memory serves me correctly) historically over the last few years when interest rates began to climb they went to over 5.2% within a 12 month period. So Im with TUG on this one.

Decoupled completely ??
Not sure about that

Could we see a situation where the ECB rate stays low, but the weight of borrowing drives up variable rates even further?

Be not sure, I won’t lose any sleep over it. :laughing:

@YM, I think we’ve seen quite a bit of that already with alot more to come!

Why do you think the banks have been offering teaser rates to people coming off fixed periods and permo not being upfront with people and trying to get them to accept variable rates? Once you are on a variable they can do what they want and in the near future they will.

That would be what I see coming, but I’m no expert on it. I don’t see any signs that the ECB will ‘need’ to raise rates (as in inflationary pressures, M3, wage demands). There are only two things I could see happening with ECB rates (well, three, but one is an unknown):

  1. Bond market rates move up and the ECB follows them
  2. The ECB looks to ‘normalise’ rates at a higher level to give themselves room and avoid being trapped at the zero bound
  3. (The unknown) Some other shock requires raising rates. Oil prices perhaps, though the feed through of 150 dollar oil prices was relatively small in the rest of Europe (since they don’t require on oil for energy generation and gas prices didn’t move nearly as much - there wasn’t a generalised energy price spike, just an oil price spike). I can’t see what shock would cause that. The likely shocks (war, terrorism, economic (i.e. defaults, bubbles bursting)) are deflationary.

Still, what do I know? :smiley:

What about recouping the several hundred billion they pumped into the various economies via QE?

You go lads, pull one over on the banks! After all, they just looove to leave money on the table. You’re certainly much more clever than they are anyway.

Well, that’s the Canny attitude anyway. Now, some of you may well be better at forecasting rates than the banks, but I for one would not try that.

Of course, TUG has an excellent point that “variable” now means “we may vary the amount of vaseline we use when we ride you by jacking up your rate for no reason”. So either way, you’re fscked.