Why has Dublin supply suddenly dried up?

We’ve been looking at houses in the FTB price range in Dublin (South and North) for awhile but it seems as if supply has completely dried up since the new year, from already low levels.

This is anecdotal, I realise. Is it confirmed by stats and, if so, why would that be?

Discussed here.
Dublin supply is actually higher than it has been in a long time. Just hit 4k last week.

Trouble is that, like most normal people, you probably have a limit on the amount for your search and all the new property is above that level.

There is loads and loads of stock. Lots of properties coming on the market almost every day. Most of them are at outrageous prices though. I personally believe that this will ultimately lead to price falls in all price brackets as more expensive houses come down into the brackets of less expensive houses

Lots of outrageous prices. And zero sign of the long-heralded fall/collapse. It is always just on the way, about to happen, prices ‘unsustainable’…

The viewings I am at are packed and money-heavy. Askings achieved and bettered.

Lots of better statisticians than me on the Pin, but in three long years they have not called it right even once. Six months from now, etc, etc… Yawn.

The same feeling hit me when I read that – the constant refrain of just wait another six month and there will be this sudden landslide of houses for sale blah, blah, blah, heard it too many times now for too many years.

I guess this is what being priced out of the market looks like.

Here’s a crazy thought - maybe nama was a success in creating balance

I still cannot believe the central bank allowed those with existing approval to be grandfathered under the new rules. How did that make any sense?

Very little stock at the high end of the market.

I was reading an old internet thread from 2006/2007 where posters were talking about the lack of supply driving up prices, some things never change.
Regarding NAMA, it did exactly what Brian Lenihan wanted it to do, restricted supply when there was no demand to put a “floor” on house prices.
Demand is back in a big way and will only increase.

im attending viewings in marino/drumcondra/clontarf

houses with potential are chased. dross houses are being ignored. FTB houses have raised to 400k seeming to be the new standard price.

its a joke. there are loads more houses on the market. they cannot all get 400k, surely there are not that many people who want to spend 2,500 a month on an 1100 sq foot house in marino when you can probably rent it for 1800 a month maximum

there is an inevitability to this. there are a) lots of buy to lets to sell here ( i know anedotally of one solicitor who owns 200 houses in these areas) and b) lots of older folks - so many that in marino it was an electioneering strategy to have an older independant candidate to represent them

the problem is the completely unrealistic expectations of vendors who still think they are sitting on the pot of gold and banks who despite all the talk regarding safe lending will still hand out silly money

it didn’t it was smoke and mirrors. i can still get 90%. the banks have been given until later this year for updating “systems and processes”.

The banks are subject to the rules now. You may have AIP for 90% but that does not necessarily mean that the bank will honour it. Alternatively your mortgage could be within the 15% allowable to exceed the LTV rules

@bill are you saying that you think Dublin house prices are sustainable, or that they will be sustainable at higher price levels? Neither is the case as far as I am concerned. When prices run at incredible multiples of income then they are unsustainable in the medium term. It is only current government policy of strangling supply that is maintaining them at their elevated levels. Yes Noonan may come up with some other wheeze to breath life into this nonsense for another 6-12 months but that will only make a crash all the worse when it comes. I have yet to read any bulls persuasive argument as to why current prices are sustainable

Three long years eh… well if the pin was founded for the purpose of calling the bottom of the insanity it would never have been founded and I would have bought a house.

However it was created with the sole purpose to alert those to the danger of the peak and destructive nature of the catastrophic falls since the majority of main stream sources existed in an echo chamber by allowing as free and open a debate on the issue starting out with a tiny minority of net based posters heavily biased on what some might term the “Bear” side.

Guess what. The shit certainly did hit the fan.

None the less discussions about prices are always going to happen on a forum about property prices it’s derivative of cycle watching and the whole anxiety when trying to procure your shelter is turned into an almost life or death situation. Funny thing that.

For historical context at an early point in the existence of thepropertypin.com another major forum know as askaboutmoney.com decided to ban the discussion of Irish house prices so it should be totally understandable it became a more urgent conversation. Especially for those trying to aquire a more independent minded guide as to what way prices would go considering nearly every other source in the past turned out to total con jobs.

If you had any ability to read between the lines you would have noticed that the rise in WIW threads indicated a resumption of buying post-2008 and therefore somewhat of a dead-cat bounce. That was 2012 but none the less the frequency of post beginning build up in 2011.

However all of that will turn out to be academic and an interesting sortie because nothing of a fundamental nature has been addressed, reformed and realigned under the mantel of a clear vision.

In other words when it comes to house prices we’re not in Kansas anymore.

https://quotespics.com/wp-content/quote-images/toto-i-ve-got-a-feeling-were-not-in-kansas-anymore.jpg

Maybe you need a nap after your three very long years.

I was told the opposite (for the zero that’s worth) by a mortgage specialist at AIB.

As long as the government continues pockets 40%+ of the sale price of a new build, prices will remain at their current level.

However most of the comment on the pin relates to the price of second hand houses in SCD. There is a real shortage here as “God is not making any more land” and real people (with 6 figure deposits and salaries) are bidding the prices up.

ps prices are not running at unsustainable levels (relative to incomes) in areas like Clondalkin, Tallaght, Lucan, Walkinstown but snobbery prevails and discussion is limited to the top 10% of property.

Prices most certainly are running at an unsustainable multiple of the income of the denizens in said areas. So you are suggesting that this generation of house buyers need to reduce their expectations and live in crap areas? Will each subsequent generation just have to trade down from what their parents had, even if they have better jobs than their parents? What a load of nonsense. I heard all this crap peddled in 2006 as well. The reason the economy collapsed is because house prices were too high. Simples. We are there again

I am curious why you consider the four areas to be crap. i wonder would the 250k people (approx) who live in these areas agree with you?

Harsh reality if you don’t have an income/wealth profile to justify the purchase of a house in the top decile than you had better adjust your expectations or be prepared to make sacrifices.

As the old saying goes 50% of drivers are below average drivers.

You might have a better job than your parents but are you performing as well relative to yours peers? An administrator today is very similar to the factory operative of our parents generation but earns an income rather than a wage.

The answer to your question is yes. All the more reason why I am not going to unduly compromise.

The way you are talking one would swear that it is natural factors that are driving up house prices. What do you think would happen if supply was balanced with demand? Prices would fall, that’s what. The ‘recovery’ in house prices is nothing other than a cynical manipulation of the market by Baldy and it will end the same way as it did under the last muppets