Why isn't electricity cheaper?


#884

So its going to slowly happen over 20 years, so its not really a problem, in fact since most of these countries are like Ireland in that they don’t produce oil, moving to electric transport is actually a good thing

If I told you over the next few years we would add 100K new homes to the grid and I then asked you would this cause a problem, my guess is you like most people would say no, its not really a problem

And yet if I said over the next 5 years we might have 100K EVs on the road, for some reason its a big problem that just can’t be solved, very strange


#885

So your answer is don’t worry about that, Jeremy is just a crank, we can all automagically draw an extra 32amps through our domestic connections at the same time and it will be fine.

You can add 100k homes because they will all have their own discreet 67amp grid connection and generation capacity will be planned for them, your 100k EVs will be drawing extra current through those 67A connections. It’s not really the individual grid connection, it’s the substation that was sized for maybe 300 connections is now being asked to deliver for the equivalent of 450 homes.


#886

But an EV might use only 350W, averaged over a year. So the demand on the grid for recharging those batteries is not problematic at scale.


#887

And slowly over the next 20 years none of this will change

The grid needs to be different to deal with a large number of EVs and its clear that it can and will change, but I bet we will see few if any power cuts caused by EVs charging

Have EVs caused any big problems in places like Norway or Holland where they have been sold in large numbers

How many large scale power cuts do you predict EVs will cause in Ireland over the next 10 years

So yes the anti EVs people are just cranks mainly, I have yet to hear any really good arguments from them


#888

But we won’t all be recharging at an average rate, we will all start recharging as we get home from work in the evening. Peak demand is what matters here.

I might be considered a crank but my objections are based on physics. The infrastructure cost of upgrading most of the end point substations is going to be considerable, and I do believe it will be necessary.

Also the raw materials for lithium batteries as used by the model 3 don’t exist on earth, I’m talking about cobalt. The planet only has enough to convert the UK to ev’s over the next 30 years with lithium batteries, so this is my basis for thinking Tesla is doomed unless it has a magic new battery type.

I also have a problem with charging batteries from electricity from gas, burning gas to charge a battery instead of burning petrol is madness and in no way helping the planet. Every conversion has a loss and gas to electric to lithium has an extra conversion which increases co2 emissions.

How many power cuts in the next 10 years, none. The limiting factor of cobalt supply will see that ev’s are only gradually introduced, substations will be upgraded at the same time as well as low capacity chargers in workplaces. I predict low capacity chargers in workplaces because nobody is going to let a couple of hundred employees plug in the equivalent of 3 kettles each for 8 hours every day in the car park, whether they are paying for it or not.

infomine.com/investment/meta … lt/5-year/

techcrunch.com/2017/01/01/no-cobalt-no-tesla/


#889

The demand can be smoothed with smart chargers.

Even if you compress charging into a 8 hour window, you’re only tripling the average power draw.

If I drive 10,000 miles a year, that’s only 27 miles of charging a night. I can get 7 MPH from a 2.3 kW domestic socket which would charge that 27 miles in only 3.8 hours.

Source: teslapedia.org/model-s/tesla-dri … ng-basics/


#890

Yeah I’m still waiting for that really good argument

Time for a peak Cobalt thread, or better again a peak battery thread


#891

Yes demand can be smoothed out, but it’s a limitation and I don’t think you’ll find it called out in the brochure…

I do believe the charging infrastructure can be fixed but it’s a significant cost that hasn’t been called out. It’s all moot though unless Elon finds a few 10 mile wide asteroids made of 100% cobalt and crashes them into the desert and even if he does do that then our electricity will have to be 95% renewable to avoid the gas-electric-battery conversion that increases the co2 produced by switching to ev’s.

In short:

  1. It’s not going to be cheaper.
  2. The raw materials don’t exist on the planet for the batteries.
  3. It only reduces co2 if nearly all the electricity is produced from renewables.

I also read recently that Tesla needs more funding soon…


#892

Tesla have said themselves that its not lithium-ion forever, they have said its Lithium for the next ten years after that they switch to a better chemistry

It clearly is, the cheapest car to run in Ireland right now is a second hand Nissan Leaf

Wrong again, batteries with no Colbalt are possible, and I don’t think we will run out of Cobalt, I will add the lack of Cobalt to the long list of reasons batteries will never power cars :angry:

Wrong again, some studies say even a coal powered EV is cleaner than an ICE, but anything with lower emissions than coal should be cleaner, so a Natural Gas grid powered EV beats the ICE easy, I’m interested to read a study that says Natural Gas powering an EV is not as clean as an ICE

Not yet but they might soon, Tesla could go bust tomorrow but its clear EVs have a future


#893

I said it’s not going to be cheaper, your Nissan leaf has no VRT or road tax…for now.

Of course ev’s without cobalt are possible but nobodys making them right now are they? I wonder why.

Article from FT about co2 footprint of ev’s v’s ice: ft.com/content/a22ff86e-ba3 … 9c83ffa852


#894

The cathodes of the 18650 cells used in the Tesla Power wall cells are equal mixes of Nickel, Manganese, Cobalt (NMC), and the Tesla S are 80% Nickel 15% Cobalt, and 5% Aluminium (NCA) . The cathodes of the 18650 cells in the Nissan Leaf contain no Cobolt. They use 100% Manganese (LMO). The cost of Manganese is about 5% of the cost of Cobolt. The ‘best’ cathodes contain Cobolt, but technology marches on and sometimes ‘good’ is better than ‘best’.

onecharge.biz/types-of-lithium-ion/


#895

It costs €120 a year to tax a Nissan Leaf, no VRT won’t last forever but by the time its removed battery costs will be lower

The article was already posted in the Tesla thread, you need to watch out for anti Tesla/EV articles a lot of the time someone is putting their thumb on the scales to make Tesla/EVs look bad

thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63977&start=1440


#896

thanks owenm for the responses.

The electricty generation and distribution network will no doubt evolve. though at a time with increased demand being put on the network especially the push to roll out electric vehicles, that it is odd that two power plants are being shutdown/taken offline. The electricity has to be generated somehow to power electric cars.

The high speed chargers are the equivalent of powering 3 toasters, designing a power supply to even power eight toasters going at it full blast is not for the faint-hearted. If we end up with 2 million electric vehicles then we need to have a power system that can deliver 6 GW of juice. the system demand at the moment is 5.2 GW ercrt.ucd.ie/

The cost of fuel for 200 km journey in an electric car is €5 , whereas for petrol its €20. Does anyone think that the taxes on petrol/diesel wont be transferred to electricity?


#897

This is practically/politically difficult since there’s no way to differentiate between different uses of electricity.

It makes more sense to apply the taxes to generation where the fuel sources can be discriminated.


#898

That won’t make any difference as far as the consumer is concerned. Electricity supply is an integrated market. If expensive electricity has to be purchased by the retail suppliers (whether or not that expense is due to high taxes on “dirty” generators), the costs will get passed on to end consumers.

There’s a much simpler objection though. Government will not forego the revenue currently raised from fuel taxes. It will tax whatever it needs to in order to make up a shortfall from declining ICE usage.


#899

But it may not be able to tax electric car usage specifically, so it’s either 1k a year road tax for EVs (which goes completely against the supposed principles of the current regime) or they’ll have to find it from non-motoring taxes.


#900

I think the key word there is supposed. :smiley:


#901

But he has been wrong about pretty much everything

But its clearly not as hard as the naysayers claim, the video below shows the largest Tesla Supercharger in Norway, 20 stalls, China has a 50 stall charger, Tesla already have 8 stall Superchargers in Ireland, they must not be faint-hearted

It will be a long time before we reach 2 million EVs on the road, it won’t be a problem


#902

Some people would call that sort of handwaving at the inevitability of progress “naive technological optimism”.


#903

With all the technology available and the fact that most EVs appear to have gps systems and internet connectivity, it’s a simple move to log journeys and “road price” them.
Plus simple to to make it mandatory to install such tracking devices in all future vehicles.