Why or How is anyone considering buying at all right now?

The Irish Property Bubble (2006) Sell, Buy or Rent?
1

I am dam curious after months of What’s It Worth why or how is anyone considering buying right now?

I mean anyone. Right now. This minute. With all that has preceded now and what is yet to pass that we know must pass and has been delayed through duress and favor.

Is this not the most surreal economic lull you’ve ever lived through?

It’s hard to know if you’ve never lived through one such as this.

It might be the first its but it feels like a political economic honey trap with a terrible sting about to come.

I even heard tell of extended family members who already have a few mortgages now having taken on another mortgage for their primary residence its becomes curiouser and curiouser.

I would find it impossible, if charged, to make any long term decisions that meant tightening the noose around ones neck financially and geographically, despite all the usual societal or biological pressures we are in epic times. Particularly if asked in relation to buying a house my only response would be “eh 3 Bed semi 160K”, to see the response. I’ve already fired it out a few times and its revealed DENIAL.

So is that just the pseudo stability or is stability always pseudo. (rhetorical))

In my view until the next few months are out of the way and yes that means the Bank guarantee switch off (or whatever happens), it won’t be totally clear to everyone, but when that really happens then it more acutely shapes the collective perception of reality and thus you can be even more assured of the state of play.

I’m noticing rents are starting to break through levels I thought they would have 2 years earlier but didn’t and its a sign of further stress, they may about to dive again in a bad way for landlords. Stats may prove me wrong but its my cursory reading from recent sampling. I am sure there are a few properties I have viewed have been vacant for 2 years at this stage.

Multiply all the pinsters who are leaving as a broad trend and a pulse may be hard to find to the body economic within much time at all.

OW looks nervously left, then right as he awaits the straw astride the camels back :neutral_face:

Draw back, draw in, from your strategy of one but whatever you do don’t draw down just yet.

'tis my tuppence worth :astonished:

2

It won’t be clear for five years OW.

And a nation of full on insane self flagellating masochists no more no less… 8DD

P.S. I’ll be putting the ear to the ground in the spring meself… :nin

3

Irish people + property = insanity .

One of my local coffee shops here in Oz is owned by a Irish guy with relations in the Irish property business . For the price of a coffee I can at any given time recieve a blow by blow account of the irish property market . Its actually funny . Here is the current thinking . First time buyers will lead the recovery and it has never been a better time to buy property in Ireland . Also only a fool would not buy in South Australia or Perth at the moment .

This guy is currently in Ireland having remortgaged his Australian house to snap up a bargain in Co Louth .

Ireland has had a 15 year housing boom . It is going to take a very long time for thinking to return to normal as most young people have no idea of what normal is when it comes to property . Its like a recovering addict . Maybe it needs a 12 step program and some rehab .

4

There are a few good value nuggets to be had out there at the moment, believe it or not. VERY rare, but they’re there. If one could find a three-bedroom fully furnished semi in very good condition in a good area of Galway City for 150,000, would you not consider that good value for someone wishing to live in the city? OK, no such thing in Galway City at the moment, but I do happen to know of one reasonably priced house currently sale agreed. Can say no more, I’m afraid.

5

There where a lot of nuggets to be hand once, now it’s nothing more than fools gold. :neutral_face:

6

well it’s still pretty much the population that participated in one of the biggest ever property bubbles. They demonstrate no inability to link the massive debts being racked up by the government with the dutre burden in places on them. And fuck me, don’t mention the lack of people adequately providing for pensions.

In terms of people looking to buy now, I suggest many are guilty of wayward ‘anchoring’. Ie they benchmark current prices to peak and perceive some sort of value.

7

I’ve said it a few times, the bank guarantee interrupted the natural boom bust cycle; fear, panic and desperation are now condensed into a shorter time frame. People have made decisions in the two years based upon a false assumption that the housing boom could be resurrected with the guarantee.
One shock is the realisation that what was believed to be wealth was a trap and shock two is that the country they believed in no longer exists.

8

Some very succinct summaries in only three lines or so, great!

Keep it coming. If we can keep that general form and not get side tracked debating to keep this thread clear pf noise as we’ve enough elsewhere, giving it flow, a lot like the introduction thread. It’s good to hear with each user really thinks

Thanks so far.

9

In terms of the general public :
I’ve said it countless times before, many people buy property for reasons other than money e.g. family. An ‘other halfs’ constant nagging can wear down even the most pessimistic of people.

Also, as *everybody knows *mentioned above, ‘most young people have no idea of what normal is when it comes to property’. This translates into people thinking that 50% below peak prices equates to cheap/value.
They have also only ever been used to ever-increasing prices and fear ‘missing-out’ on the illusionary upturn.

A sizeable chunk of the FTBs population was not old enough to remember the 80s.
They cannot comprehend what lies ahead, similar to the way people failed to comprehend that 50%+ falls were inevitable (remember those days ?).

Unless you have previous experience, even with all thats gone before, people fail to join the dots. Seeing is believing.

Ignorance and lack of understand plays a major role too.
We are used to talking about yields and income multiples, but the public is not.
They are largely ignorant of what is happening and have no idea as to the implications of various government actions.

There are many, many reasons why people buy even after all the recent developments and bailouts.

For the pinster *there is no excuse *. :stuck_out_tongue:
I’m not joking, read any early thread and if any conclusions turned out to be incorrect, it’s because they proved too optimistic.

10

Most people are just silly and need to be protected from making stupid decisions. The poor quality of the irish political class, who encouraged its electorate into such stupid behaviour, is proof of this.

How a people could fall for such an obvious Ponzi scheme as the inflated irish property market is beyond reason.

How they still consider there is value in buying into that same market is beyond comprehension.

11

People will buy all the ways to the bottom. Younger people are anchored to bubble prices.
I’ve had several well educated and bright colleagues buy in the last year, typically they have married in the last year also, one fella’s line was “well you have to buy sometime…”

12

I shall bow my head in shame and say I’m always considering :blush: (I blame my parents and anyone else I can – where’s my bailout!!). I’ve even viewed a property recently - next door to one that we went sale agreed on 3 years ago (sale fell through – blessings counted every day BD) and its recently sale agreed figure is now 53.591% (I love sums!) of what we were fooled (loosely used) into offering – you’d think that would be enough for me but still, despite years of reading the PIN, there is a deep urge within and I will admit I want my own field!

Without apportioning blame for this thinking and sticking to the thread question, my other half is a big influence in this thinking – to misquote a Marvin Lee Aday “I would do anything for love but I still can’t bring myself around to buying another gaff in this god forsaken country”

I’ve been burnt and consider myself lucky to get out when I did but I think I need some sort of codeine based product to get me through it.
Friends and family losing jobs, pay cuts or worse coming for me again and every time I need to be steered back into line, I come back here so all is not lost OW, solace and sense is found here my friends 8) .

“Freedom is not worth having if it does not include the freedom to make mistakes” – I’ve made them and now I’m enjoying the freedom of having made them.

On a side note, where’s Pigman gone – while a slight chastisement probably was in order, I hope he wasn’t banished to far, far, far away sty…

13

ex owner, current renter.

if i could get a house i want at the price i want (based on a very generous 20x rent as i want detached with a garage), i’d buy now, but houses still need to drop another 30-50% in areas i’m looking in.

I’ve given up low balling offers.

14

I think because for very many the Irish property Market experience has been one characterised by highly anxious first time buyers chasing an over leveraged market that always seemed to be escaping them. Consequently as soon as prices have creeped close to the doable/struggable limit people are going for it. It’s psychological scarring really - rationalism does n’t come into it.

15

Perhaps, but this can and is being used as an argument to buy a place now. The reason being: I have X amount of money that I saved for, and is it safe in a bank? What happens if there is a real collapse, will my deposit money be safe? At least if I buy a place, I may loose some of its value but at least I’ll have something at the end. Also, if things get really bad, and it turns out to be hyper-inflation I score big :wink: .

We all know that in Ireland, for good or bad, there will not be tens of thousands of repossessions. Something will be done to make it so that those that make any attempt at paying their mortgage will keep their houses. Based on this, and the surreal situation that you mentioned, a tempting argument can be made to buy now. At least one will have the certainty of having a house.

16

Demographics combined with 50% fall and realizing there is so much shit so when you find decent size house in area you will live in for good the decision gets easier

17

The mind boggles in astonishment at the foolishness of people who are willing to make the biggest and most important purchase of their lives when the markets are collapsing around them.

Nuff said.

18

The FB2s are mortgage approved and have the ear to the ground. Would expect to be gone to the darkside within the year. If anyone has any specific questions on the (ir)rationale of our decision then fire away. Going in with a goodly size deposit but keeping a chunk of get away contingency money in case the place goes down the swanny.

19

I don’t know why people are buying now, but I am constantly astonished by how far you can stretch 4m people. After building a million frigging gaffs or something over the last decade and every second gobshite buying one (or two) of them, we still have, apparently, a never-ending stream of potential buyers. I mean, how can’t we have run out of people yet?? And then there’s the renters, who, it seems, can always be relied upon to step up in sufficient numbers when distressed mortgage owners need to “rent it out” (my least favourite phrase from the accursed C**** T**** period). What a strange country we live in when 22 billion is a trivial number and 4 million a vast and bottomless one.

20

I agree fully with you narcissus. When will they ever learn! Well informed pinsters, and, many who have had their fingers badly burned, have been telling us “WAIT this is not the time to buy” but no, the Irish will ignore all advice and then moan and moan, and, blame anyone they can when it all goes wrong!!.
Thanks to you wise Pinsters who have provided advice here. I certainly will be waiting and renting until property starts to resemble sane prices.