Why you've already missed the boat as this property cycle...

independent.ie/national-news … 38385.html

Excuse me whilst I puke in a bucket.

I dont seem to see the name of the author, who wrote this inspired and inspiring piece ??

I see WGU has already commented on the Indo site…

The comments make more sense than the article

The Irish Independent is the most appalling of rags,it lifts a good portion of their stories from the online Daily Mail and has aspirations to replicate what it sees as their success.

The talent working in the Indo now are at best just barely competent or talented enough to be working in a small back water provincial title (by dint of their ability to read and write) with a caveat that they should keep looking over their shoulder and brown nosing the Editor at every available op.

The reaction here to the article - which doesn’t really amount to much - apart from “the worst may be over,” is quite telling. Slagging off the Indo journalists and “vomiting” is all very wearysome and predictable but isn’t there at least some evidence that prices have stabilised in parts of the country? Isn’t there upward pressure on rents? Isn’t unemployment stabilising? Hasn’t the retail sector just enjoyed the best Christmas in five years? And anyway, since when did privately-owned newspapers not “spin” things to put forward their own point of view? The Irish Times and RTE do it as much, although in a more subtle manner.

I’m beggining to see what might be described as a “post Property Price Register trauma” in effect around here (in that it didn’t quite “deliver the goods” in the way some expected.) There were quite a few shocks at some prices and when one house in Mount Merrion went for higher than expected the bidders were described as “cash-rich idiots.” (Made me wonder what it takes to become a, “cash rich idiot” in the current climate!)

It was these same journos who pimped the boom the whole way to the bust in order to sell ad space in the supplements and now are pumping away at the first spark of life in the property market,you just couldn’t believe one word of these usually poorly written articles.

Until the Banks start lending again there will be no long term recovery in the property market.

Judging by most of the comments, the pin has mobbed the article.
The spin doctors must be quaking in their boots! :slight_smile:

Following on from overpinned do we now have The Pin Doctors.The vocabulary is growing

Better copy & past or screen grab before they turn them off! :smiley:

Pindoctors, I like it! 8DD

Precisely. The articles always include the phrase “missing the boat”, references to “the ladder” and “buy NOW before it’s too late”. They are ‘fear&greed’ articles - share-pump schemes masquerading as analysis written solely to benefit the writer.

Agreed. But some above have pointed out that the article didn’t mention “this” or “that” (e.g mortgage relief, apartment prices etc) when in fact it was clearly more a side-bar or an opinion piece. The main article on the front page mentioned all of these things and included plenty of caveats etc. (Quotes below from main article)
independent.ie/national-news … 38359.html

“As always with Irish property data, given the still-low turnover and the fact that cash purchases are excluded from the data, we would be cautious to suggest property prices are rebounding strongly or that a recovery is fully in place,” he said.
For most buyers, it was also the last opportunity to benefit from the mortgage interest relief, a tax break for home- buyers that is due to be scrapped at the end of this year"
Apartment prices continue to take a hammering with the price of Dublin apartments falling a further 1.9pc in November.However, the introduction of the property tax next year and the high level of unemployment would stop any sustained property market rise, economists said***

now that the mayan calander has run out, the properrty prophets feel safe to re-emerge.

note the use of 2006 when the crash started, is that the first time the Indo have referred to that year instead of 2007.

I find it interesting that the use of ‘recovery’ only applies to property prices, irrespective of the greater economy that exists out there.

This ‘opinion piece’…? whose opinion is it? Is it not usual to put a name to an ‘opinion piece’? :unamused:

i see “irish independent” at the bottom of the article. as it stands it is an indo editorial masquerading in the ‘news’ section.

on the other hand maybe its a genuine news item. :open_mouth:

edit: after consulting the print edition, twas penned by a “Mark Keenan”.

A poorly researched article. Even a cursory and factual review of the population profile, the employment levels and state of the banking system would reveal that there simply is no current demographic or economic foundation for such a claim. Of course, that doesn’t take into account the “Smart ballsy” guys filling their boots (wasn’t that a line from the same publication some time back?). I note that the Daily Mail had an article in a similar vein where “experts” were quoted … both of whom were compromised by working in the property sector.

A review of their results shows that INM do need to find a way to boost their advertising revenue,

inmplc.com/reports/uploads/2 … s_Prez.pdf

Still, some will believe this and rush into the market, and good luck to them.

Caveat Emptor

Blue Horseshoe

The question for me is whether the headline figures reflect underlying reality, any more than they did when prices were rising in 2004. There isn’t even a hint to the unwary reader in the article that there might be more to things than meets the eye.

No need to rehash the bearish arguments here cause we know them well. But can 100k OO’s and 50k BTL’s in arrears really have ZERO effect on prices going forward? If we’ve passed equilibrium, by definition that must be the case - they must have zero effect.

But that’s €30b+ of red ink on the banks’ books. Does that money simply get written off with Troika money, and then scrubbed from Ireland’s debt? And in return the Troika seek not a penny from the value of the stock? Surely that is utterly inconceivable. Can incomes rise enough to pay it all off at book prices? Impossible too.

In a vacuum, prices are rising or steady in Dublin according to the CSO. Problem is, that vacuum excludes TOTALLY the effect of empties, arrears, wildly over-optimistic growth projections, falling future disposable incomes, the billions to come out of government spending in coming years…and all that stuff.

Isn’t the importance of all that by definition set at zero if we are at equilibrium now?

Hmmmm yes. I thought May 2007 was supposed to be the peak month. 2006 suits them better today though as it fits in nicely with the cliche 7 year cycle.

So what are the government going to do to curb this rampant inflation that will affect so many young people seeking to buy or rent a home? How will they discourage speculation - perhaps a higher rate of property tax on second homes?