Landlord and ddg obviously share a viewpoint that is not the general pin consensus. Because they meet with a fair amount of opposition they have responded by veering dangerously close to trolling at times (plus there’s Landlord’s egregious use of the smiley icon). But it has to be said that there is some evidence, in the more desirable parts of SCD, of some stabilisation in prices. I am genuinely interested to know how Landlord and ddg see things playing out over the next 6 months or so?
I would say that 4 beds that have parking and are in a reasonable condition in the most desirable areas in SCD are holding at the 1-1.4m level.
This has been the situation for the last 6 - 9 months. How long will they hold who knows. Are they going up in price. I dont think they are.
The jump though in quality from these house types to the “real” trophy houses at the 1.5+ mark is very noticeable, and these prices are dropping without a doubt. It will be interesting to see what happens when the prices of the real trophy houses comes closer to what is being asked today for the Mander Terraces of this world.
If the government said that anyone who refused to buy a house in the next 6 months would have a Swastika tattooed on their forehead, wouldn’t that stabilise prices too?
IMO stabilisation of prices is meaningless unless the reasons behind that stabilisation are known. I would contend that there are very clear reasons for stabilising prices, but none of them are sustainable or a reflection of a neutral process of supply/demand setting a price.
I would be inclined to agree with you, Larry. Of course there is a small cohort of people who remain relatively untouched by our economic woes and it seems that some have slapped their money down in the last few months. I don’t personally see how this can have a significant longterm effect on prices.
Still, I was interested to hear a projection from Landlord or ddg as to how they envisage the rest of the year panning out.
It all depends on how the cohort who are in stable employment with large deposits react to a rising CSO Index. If we make the assumption the index is running approximately 3 months in arrears than we are going to have at least another 3 months of positive growth. (5+ months in total).
If this cohort gets nervous and charges into the market than we might really see a dead cat bounce.
Personally I am hoping for slow consistent growth from here (3-5% p.a.) with probably a few hicups along the way.
I think actual sales prices have probably increased 5%-10% over the last 6 months (on a like for like basis) but we will only be able to confirm this when the price database is released.
Apartment prices have still some distance to fall and I am surprised with the recent rises reported in the CSO index.
Dublin remains a relatively wealthy European city where the well educated in society are working and earning salaries well in excess of the national average. Some of these people are even getting actual pay rises in addition to the normal promotional rises.