(UPDATE: have fixed all the links below, 3rd time lucky)
Always trickier to say with big Killiney fully detached houses as:
- LAND. The Zero / Zero Killiney planning (i.e. no break up of big multi-acre period house sites), can make additional land in a Killiney site, of much lower marginal value (i.e. you don’t end up with the standard D4 / D6 valuation of Site Size x Per Acre Value + Build Cost). Cloneevin (6,400 sq ft for 2.9m in 2013, on just over an acre thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=45484) vs. Ashurst (8,000 sq ft for 4.0m also in 2013, but on almost 4 acres thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=16521), vs. Strathmore (+8,000 sq ft on +8 acres) for 7.5m in 2015 thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=8338) is the perfect example of this dynamic.
Even before the GFC, you had the sale in mid 2004 (two years before the 2006 peak), of two separate c 1 acre sea-view sites, of Paddock Wood thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=60830 and Buena Vista thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=59203, for over c 4.5m each. Contrast this with the sale of Killiney House in 2006 (at the peak, when prices were +50% higher than 2004) for 9m. By 2006, Paddock Wood and Buena Vista’s 1 acre sites, would have been worth closer to 6m per acre (like Dromeen got), and Killiney House’s 9m sale value would have broken into 6m for the first acre + 1.5m for the second 0.75 acre (2m per acre) + 1.5m for structure (350 sq ft was re-build cost at the time).
This is a very tricky area for high-end Killiney valuations and the source of many major revisions in askings. Generally, very good sea-view sites (like Killiney House) are currently getting about 2.5m for the first acre (vs. 6m at peak in 2006), and 0.50-0.75m for the subsequent acres (vs. 2m at peak in 2006). I think the first asking for Killiney House assumed its 1.75 acres of sea-view land (ignoring house) was worth a full 2.5 x 1.75 = 4.3m (and then house added on top). The original asking should have been more like 2.5 x 1 + 0.75 x 0.75 = 3m (plus house on top, which is worth about c. 1m at current re-build costs).
- PROTECTION. Where as Owen Killian has virtually demolished his 100-year old period structure on 2 Shrewsbury Road, planners in Killiney fight and enforce stringent conditions and micro-protections for period structures (ask the Edge in Fortlands). It means that while beautiful Killiney period houses are still well bid (i.e. Cloneevin, Mirimar, Dorset Lodge), less beautiful Killiney period houses (which you are going to be stuck with … forever), are harder, examples being St. Leonard’s or Salerno (and the most famous being Eirene, although the buyer’s amazing renovation, means that they might have the last laugh).
I actually think Salerno would have achieved close to it’s 2.2m sale price, if had had no derelict period house on the site. A similar dynamic is happening with Secrora (thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=65828&hilit=secrora), whose land alone is worth c. 1.6m (2.5m x .65 acres = 1.6m), but whose small (but fully protected) period house, while actually having a quite nice facade, is situated in a very awkward position on the extreme back of the site (no sea-view), making much needed extensions to Secrora (it is only 2,500 sq ft) problematic. If Secrora had no period house (or it was burnt down), it would probably sell for within 10% of it’s asking for the land alone. Same with St. Leonard’s (thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=63898&hilit=st+leonards), who would have gotten very close to 3m per acre, or 2.5m, for its land alone, but the house (which is fully protected) didn’t add much more value to this.
I like the period style of Killiney House, and expect no real issues here (plus, the attached coach houses can be upgraded without much planing hassle, as long as they part of the main dwelling), but i notice the almost identical Percy Lodge period structure down the road, is not yet sold (thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&p=826281). They are probably not as immediately impressive as Cloneevin or Mirimar in period style, but they are still very beautiful imho.
By contrast, I have been surprised at how aggressively bid non-period houses / sites are becoming (i.e. Hawk Cliff on Vico Road Killiney for 2.7m, or Tenerife off Glenalua Road for 3.5m per acre) with strong sea-views. There is a strong bid for high-quality modern high-end houses (not the euro 175 per sq ft horror of Hendre on Georges Avenue thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=60901), or sites for such modern houses, with great sea-views (i.e. can build an “Iornman” type house). I think Paddock Wood would make +5m if sold again today (judging by others), but am not sure the other “big period sales” in Killiney (Cloneevin, Ashurst, Mirimar) would have such increases. Paddock Wood had full sea-views from even the ground floor (the “holy grail”, which makes it particularly valuable - like Sorrento Terrace houses), where as Cloneevin and Ashurst, were only 1st floor sea-views (not sure re Mirimar).
The sale of 5 Ash hurst (or 5 Ashurst) as a 0.65 acre site (i.e. no period house) in 2015 for 1.5m (or 2.25m per acre), thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=64395, in a small estate (with limited sea-view), is another case in point. Contrast with the sale of the period Lothlorien across the road, on 0.5 acres for 1.7m, thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=64535, despite Lothlorien having a pretty, and large 4,500 sq ft period house on it (and also not being in an estate set-up). And also contrast with Salerno, which made <2m per acre (despite having a large period house, albeit in poor condition, on its site). We have had the subsequent sales of 5A Ash Hurst (<3,000 sq ft on 0.17 acres for almost 1.6m), as well as the sale of the Tenerife site (off the Glenalua Road), for 3.5m per acre thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=66103
- POSITIONING + SEA-VIEW. Last but not least, there is a rough line that runs from Killiney Hill village, down along Killiney Hill Road down to Military Road. If you are on Killiney Hill Road, or east (i.e. towards the sea) of this road AND with a good sea-view, you have a desirable house, and can get +2.5m per acre today. If the sea-view + house is particularly lovely (i.e. can see sea from ground floor, or particularly pretty period house), you can get closer to 3m per acre.
If you are much west of that line (i.e. you cannot see the sea), valuation drops off quickly. There have been plenty of houses over the hill towards Church Road, that struggle to realize even 1m per acre. Tudor Lodge in Killiney being an example thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=64628. Recent St. Columbas, Church Avenue for 2.75m another perfect example (4.75 acres + 10,000 sq ft). Note also the more modest 2.45m asking, for the 6,500 sq ft period Laragh House in Killiney (not on Killiney Hill Road and no sea-view) despite being on almost 1 acre (and being almost identical to Cloneevin).
In contrast, even 1st floor only sea-view sites like Dromeen Kilmore Avenue thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=52354 got 1.8m an acre in GFC (worth +2.5m per acre now). Also note 2015 sale of Tenerife site on Glenalua Road thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=66103 for +3.5m acre. Location aside, if there is no sea-view it will hurt. Best example being 2014 sales of Galleen, and Dorset Lodge, for implied site values of c. 3m per acre each thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&p=737946 (both had great 1st floor sea-views) vs. Salerno thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=64249, with no sea view (+okay period house), for <2m per acre.
Again, in my view, Killiney House is in a good location (right on Killiney Hill Road), and also has very good sea views (not just from the 1st floor, but also from the high garden behind the house), so there should be no issues here. Doesn’t have the “holy grail” of sea views from the ground floor (to my knowledge, per Paddock Wood), if it did, we would be talking about +4m.
I think Killiney House is worth over 3m (land alone), and would be surprised to see it sell for less than even 3.5m. As to whether it can get closer to the 4m mark, the final non-Killiney related issue, is that there are simply a very small number of +4m buyers in Dublin - averages about 5 per year post GFC, and circa half are focused on D4+D6 (especially if Irish).
Killiney House will need at least +500k of build work to increase the no. of bedrooms to 5/6, and increase kitchen size etc (i.e. bring size to c. 5,000 sq ft), and standard of fit-out, to bring up to the class of a “great house” (irrespective of doing something more “tigerish” with it). That would put Killiney House right into the price class of say 31 Wellington Place, and 1 Temple Gardens, which sold for over +4.5m this year, but were in mint modern condition and v. high fit-out throughout, and on the best roads in Dublin (both would have been asking c 12m in 2006 at the peak, when Killiney House was bought for 9m).
Killiney has had a surprising amount of +2.5m sales since the GFC (some of the most outside of D4+D6), which I would not have expected a few years ago. The dominance of international buyers on Dublin high-end housing is a factor here, and they seem to be less focused on D4+D6, and more on sea-views / ambiance etc. It is kind of (but not entirely) like the return to the market of the 1990s, when the most expensive houses used to be in Killiney / Dalkey (again also supported by foreign money).
So, my guess for Killiney House, is probably somewhere around 3.5m and with the right buyer, maybe a bit above this towards 4m. Regardless, a seller needs lots of patience given the small pool of buyers at this level, but I think the owners of Killiney House (and their patient Irish bank, no doubt), have shown that in spades to date.
Hope that helps.