Being a Y2K event in the real sense will only happen if somebody comes up with a fix in the next month. That’s the whole lesson of the Y2K affair, that the advance remedial work was successful.
If the UK refuses to engage with a process it instigated then its future relationship with the EU will be designed for it by the EU as it suits the bloc.
The UK is only making preparations now that it should have started before instigating A50 so logistically I can see a whole loads of arrangements being rolled over but eventually restricted to suit the EU to the detriment of the UK.
Edit to add here’s a perfect example.
For the UK it really is being a frog being slow boiled in a pot they voluntarily entered.
Yeah, I think there’ll be a bit of a WW2 phoney war feeling post B-day but multiple crunches will come in the months following it.
You mean one that years of planning, testing, development, more testing, more planning were required for to make sure it was smooth? That sort of Y2K event?
Yes, Y2K is exactly what I think it’s going to be like too. Have the years of planning for Brexit happened? No? Hmmm.
The country with the most food security is the one with the biggest army.
Tell that to the Russian people in the 1930s!
So whats your prediction then Yogan? Catastrophic overnight collapse? Cannibalism in Cabinteely ?
I dont buy it.
Im with Tulip on this one. Some initial inconveniencing of business until work practices are ironed out…along with a slow initial decline in economic activity…followed by the inevitable recovery at some point thereafter…hands up anyone who has lived through similar in the past?
I agree. Headline newspaper articles are what lead me to the source. Thus I made a point of indicating the source clearly.
My own simple concept of food security is you need for nothing, can put you hand on what you need, if there is left over, then you have surplus and I’ll add while also holding the ability to defend it as tinneym posed.
PML, best post of the day!!
I agree, if you read all of his posts on the subject you’d be expecting to see Mad Max style dystopia throughout the uk on March 29th.
I’ve posted in the Brexit thread that the EU have extended licenses to city of London clearing houses in the case of a no-deal Brexit. I read somewhere, probably here, where the EU have told Aer Lingus and a BA owned Spanish airline to sort out their ownership to be majority EU, I imagine they’re doing that. These are all Y2K like prep arrangements that will mean that sky won’t fall in at 23:00 29/03/2019 however it will mean multiple mini crunches over the coming years until an EU-British FTA is put in place. The City will insist their part of the agreement will look like what they have now and if that involves agreeing to no border in Ireland then that’s what’ll happen.
a starving army is useless and you can’t appropriate agricultural land except by occupation
Ireland was England’s first Lebensraum before eventually appropriating the material and mineral wealth of a quarter of the world. Last year there was public panic when KFC shut for a few weeks due to problems with their distributor!
It will be fun to see the reaction to any real food shortages, although I actually don’t believe it will come to that.
No, but don’t conflate Y2K (a problem known, worked on, and solved over years) with Brexit (a problem known, worked on, but not solved).
I also agree with Tulip, but I think the decline in economic activity in the UK will be deeper until their wages are low enough that they can compete on a world stage. I believe they’re fighting for a prize that is not worth winning (hence trade deals and economic blocks in the first place).
I also agree that it’ll be phony war for a while, so don’t expect to see the impacts immediately on 29 March.
And all the rejigging will provide an element of boost to both the economy and employment in the short term (since those numbers measure activity rather than useful activity).
RTE are reporting that the cabinet are to be issued dire warnings regarding Brexit.
Is this the wake up call at last? Will heads be taken out of the sand?
Will the slowdown in property price inflation accelerate??
When the tide goes out… oh we are here gain, where we’ve been before, too many times. What does that tell you?
The biggest impact of a “no deal Brexit” will be in the UK itself and in Ireland, its closest trading partner. The UK, has ruled out being a member of a EU Customs Union trading bloc,so that means all countries take a hit. Economists say that any new trade opportunities elsewhere will not make up for losses in trade with the EU. Weaker sterling since Brexit and it has further weakened since the current potential UK Prime ministers have talked up the prospect of a “no deal” unless the “backstop” is removed from the current proposed agreement. The “backstop” is an insurance policy designed to avoid customs controls and checks on the border in the island of Ireland between the UK controlled North and the Republic of Ireland. Weaker sterling has already cut the purchasing power of UK consumers and uncertainty has hit investment, with growth estimated to be 1 to 2 per cent per annum lower over the couple of years.
For Ireland, growth remains strong and the main short-term impact has been via a weaker sterling exchange rate, which is good if you’re going to the UK to buy a second-hand car but bad if you’re an exporter to the UK market.
A no deal Brexit will bring barriers to exports to the UK and also delays consignments and lead to higher prices for importers of UK goods to Ireland. Forecasters have estimated that in a harder version of Brexit, where the UK leaves the EU trading bloc, the Irish economy could be 4 to 7 per cent lower in a decade’s time, with most of the hit in the first five years. .
A no-deal Brexit means the economic effect would be severe at the beginning and happen more quickly for both North and South of Ireland. In a “no agreement” Brexit scenario, there would be devastating levies and checks on agricultural produce such as beef, milk produce and wheat with rates around 50%. The border between the and Northern Ireland Republic would become an external EU border with checks and controls required.
Every external border of the EU has controls to protect consumers; dangerous/prohibited goods, food security, animal disease, and Customs controls. VAT is also payable at point of import as goods enter the EU. Different customs and regulatory regimes could stop trade. But without a Withdrawal Agreement, there is no backstop to facilitate the border on the island of Ireland remaining control free. So before October 31st the authorities will somehow have to come up with protocols that keep the border open and yet ensure that the appropriate controls are applied. The question still remains of how they will do that?
Simple. Nicky Morgan was on BBC R4 Westminster Hour last night talking about the “Alternative Arrangements” committee and report that she was part of. We are told that the work has been very promising and Boris Johnson is fully on board with it. Numerous countries around the world have such arrangements at their borders.
All that was missing was any information about what the wonderful new arrangements are. Or how they will be implemented by October 31st. Or why the other countries mentioned all have inexplicable queues at their borders and mountains of red tape.
Ever since I heard BoJo explain that he is going to get a deal where others have failed because of “positive energy” I have realised that he and those around him are quite literally peddling a mirage.