You've convinced me!

Hey, I think the penny has finally dropped for me…I don’t think I’m going to buy a house and am going to rent instead. Thanks everyone for your posts!!

But I am still trying to get my head around where prices are going i.e. when to buy!!

I started to try do out some figures based around the current average house price being 230k and it dropping to 170k. (For ref: I can’t remember where I read these figures but I got them somewhere whilst trolling over the last few months- correct them if I’m wrong!)

This is a further 26% drop and some might say is very optimistic. Based on this I looked at current house prices in firhouse, knocklyon, templeogue and reduced them 26%. Does this look plausible? Maybe the penny has only partially dropped :confused: but they seem reasonable to me??

3 bed firhouse 300k down 26% to 222k
3 bed semi knocklyon 355k down 26% to 265k
4 bed semi knocklyon 445k down to 330k
4 bed detached knocklyon 525k down to 390k
3 bed semi templeogue 410k down to 305k
4 bed semi templeogue 500-600 downnto 370- 445k
4 bed detached Templeogue 625k down to 460k
4 bed detached Templeogue Premium House 515k
5 bed detached Templeogue Premium House 600k

All Asking prices!! and back of a beer mat calcs!!

Opinions and abuse welcome!! :laughing:

Get out of here ya flaming mongrel!!!

(you did say abuse was welcome :wink: )

I think 26% below asking is a very safe assumption as to where prices will go from now.
Lots of places will settle now for sub asking so this is likely to be a further 15-20% fall from todays selling prices.
That 15-20% alone will be covered by the next budget, the introduction of water rates and property tax…

I assume all these houses would be walk in condition?
For instance, I know of 2 doer-upers (need modernisation more than anything else) in those areas, in the range you posted

Prices are heading one way only in the short to medium term, how far they will fall is anybody’s guess.

Depends on

  1. How quickly banks push up rates, I think this will be pretty rapid once the recapitalisations are complete.
  2. How much housing stock NAMA can keep off the market, I expect they will hold everything for at least 3 to 5 years.
  3. Economic growth globally, a sharp rise in growth could improve Irelands ecomony and help to limit house price slids, however the rapid recovery doesn’t appear to be coming anytime soon.
  4. Inflation in Europe, low ECB rates will give rise to inflation which could give a way of erroding the debts of borrower countrries (like Ireland), PS i can’t see the Germans allowing this to happen.

Ultimately house prices will adjust towards reasonable levels, rental yields of 6% to 7%.

Obsessed much? :open_mouth:

How much do you earn? How much do you think you will take home in 3-4 years time? Lower tax bands and rates will be flying up in the next two years.

How much do you think your potential neighbours earn? Now if the price of the property is still many times above this annual salary you know to wait.

Cheers for replies… :wink: