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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:49 pm 
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Pretty Charts (more info and links here)


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 9:56 am 
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ps200306 wrote:

Fascinating graphs and info.
Many thanks for it all!


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:40 am 
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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:32 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 4:55 am 
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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:01 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 10:11 am 
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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 2:38 pm 
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Thanks and well done, ps200306.

This is probably the most useful contribution on the Pin to discussion of prices/rents. Which means it is the most useful guide anywhere to Irish prices/rents. I would draw the following conclusions, many of which runs counter to received wisdom in our mainstream media. I am no expert and I am open to correction on any of these points but I can't find any contrary information in the media.

Dublin rental supply has increased and rents have moderated in the past two months but that looks like a seasonal effect (after the return of the students) which I think will be reversed in the Spring because any additional supply will be outstripped by increasing demand from a growing workforce.

The CSO index (the most reliable guide to property prices) indicates that prices nationally will match the boom time peak in 2020 on current trends but Dublin prices are now on a lower trajectory which would take many years to match Dublin's 2007 peak (which was well above the national level, of course).

The PPR shows that the volume of property sales increased from catastrophically low levels - less the 20K in 2011 - to over 53K last year but we still have a long way to go to normal volumes. The PPR did not exist before the crash (if only!) so the closest comparator is the UK where there are around 1,200K transactions per year i.e. we still need to double our volume to reach their per capita level.

Price per sq. foot has dipped slightly in South Dublin - the bellwether for boom/bust - and other areas are catching up. This also happened in the final stage of the boom when people who were priced out of South Dublin brought their expectations and their 100% mortgages to the commuter belt. This time, the Central Bank has put the ceiling on South Dublin and this will eventually lead to a ceiling on commuter belt prices, still well below current South Dublin prices.

Asking prices are the least reliable indicator. The main trends are similar but the local variations are amazing - asking prices up by around 20% in Roscommon/Leitrim/Laois, compared to a mere 1% in Dublin 6. Surely the vendors in Ranelagh and Rathmines have not lost heart just because Brian and Amy are moving in at last to their extended pile on Palmerston Rd. ?


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2018 4:01 pm 
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I think we're at the point where marginal FDI will happen in the Dublin suburbs or well outside Dublin.

City centre jobs are not attractive to young workers <30k, unless there's a very solid career progression track.

Public transport is dire if you're trying to commute from somewhere affordable and firms are just going to increasingly bring Mohamed to the mountain.

I think this means rents have topped out. The big flow of new student residences are probably releasing a lot of pressure too.

I've posted elsewhere that I think that selling prices in prime Dublin have actually fallen a bit. There is no value for investors anymore, Central Bank rules are having their effect, and people are nervous about Brexit. The crackdown on short-term lets is putting off investors too.


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:18 am 
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I find it interesting prices in SCD are dropping as the fed is raising rates.
I think we're in credit bubble 2.0 but I'm not sure how this one will play out considering there isn't an oversupply of property, not yet anyway.


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:18 am 
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Lefournier3 wrote:
Thanks and well done, ps200306...
...
Asking prices are the least reliable indicator. The main trends are similar but the local variations are amazing - asking prices up by around 20% in Roscommon/Leitrim/Laois, compared to a mere 1% in Dublin 6. Surely the vendors in Ranelagh and Rathmines have not lost heart just because Brian and Amy are moving in at last to their extended pile on Palmerston Rd. ?

Thanks for your remarks. The paucity of reliable and comprehensive information is an ongoing annoyance. Compare the information on Daft or Myhome to, say, Zillow.com in the US where you can read off asking prices per square foot directly along with a host of other stats. I've always felt it's still worth pulling together the little information we have, even if we are "seeing through a glass darkly". But I do need to remind people every now and again about the limitation of the asking price info in those graphs.

Only a little over half the listings on Myhome.ie give floor areas from which an asking price per square foot can be calculated. That improves to 75% for Dublin listings. But then, the smaller the region we zoom in on the smaller the number of listings we have. To take your example, this month's snapshot of Dublin 6 includes 180 properties for which floor areas were given (out of 230 total). This will be more prone to random monthly fluctuations than Dublin overall, in which 3,600 listings out of 5,000 give floor area. For some post codes we have 50 listings or less, and the averages here should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

Add to this the presence of various outliers in the data. It's beyond the ability of one person to sift through individual listings every month, so the best I can do is lop off the extreme bottom and top end of asking prices per square foot. The results should therefore be taken as indicative, not gospel truth. That said, I'm inclined to trust the trends that are revealed for the most populous areas. If asking prices in SCD or Dublin generally seem to be softening over a period of months, it's probably a real phenomenon.

Asking prices, of course, can be more a measure of market sentiment than market reality. Another perennial aggravation is the inability to match asking prices in ad listings to eventual sales prices on the PPR. The vagaries of address matching yield too few reliable data points to be useful. (EDIT: I thought that the prevalance of Eircodes on the PPR was set to increase, but on checking just now I found a grand total of 23 Eircodes on the entire PPR).

The bottom line is we're stuck with what we've got. It may not be much, but hopefully it's better than the tea leaf gazing that passed for market prognostications in the boom era.

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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:03 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
I thought that the prevalance of Eircodes on the PPR was set to increase, but on checking just now I found a grand total of 23 Eircodes on the entire PPR).
The bottom line is we're stuck with what we've got. It may not be much, but hopefully it's better than the tea leaf gazing that passed for market prognostications in the boom era.

No necessarily stuck - Eircodes are now used routinely in all conveyancing but this doesn't help the PPR because solicitors don't include Eircodes with stamp duty payments to the Revenue Commissioners. All that is needed is for the Revenue to require Eircodes for this purpose - it could easily be done with a Revenue practice notice or at most a Ministerial Order. There is a strong argument from a Revenue viewpoint - anyone underpaying Stamp Duty would be exposed to public scrutiny. Or is that why it won't happen? :x

Added bonus - Eircode would find its raison d'etre. Maybe someone in the media will pick up on this.


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:18 pm 
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Lefournier3 wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
I thought that the prevalance of Eircodes on the PPR was set to increase, but on checking just now I found a grand total of 23 Eircodes on the entire PPR).
The bottom line is we're stuck with what we've got. It may not be much, but hopefully it's better than the tea leaf gazing that passed for market prognostications in the boom era.

No necessarily stuck - Eircodes are now used routinely in all conveyancing but this doesn't help the PPR because solicitors don't include Eircodes with stamp duty payments to the Revenue Commissioners. All that is needed is for the Revenue to require Eircodes for this purpose - it could easily be done with a Revenue practice notice or at most a Ministerial Order. There is a strong argument from a Revenue viewpoint - anyone underpaying Stamp Duty would be exposed to public scrutiny. Or is that why it won't happen? :x

Added bonus - Eircode would find its raison d'etre. Maybe someone in the media will pick up on this.


The online stamp duty form includes the obligation to use an LPT identifier. These can be matched to eircodes. The eircodes just aren't put into a field when the PPR database is released.

Online ads tend to use eircodes sporadically, maybe more in rural areas.

In Dublin where I look prevalence is in the 10% range.

I don't think PS will be able to do much reliable matching using eircodes anytime soon, which is a pity.


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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 1:52 pm 
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Thanks PS. This thread is really valuable to us for our return to Ireland. We have a nice wedge and having an overview of the market beyond asking prices really helps. A big change from a decade ago when we had threads here about how many lights were on in a development at night to figure out the empties!

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 Post subject: Re: The Pretty Charts thread
PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2018 2:12 pm 
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Skippy 3 wrote:
The online stamp duty form includes the obligation to use an LPT identifier. These can be matched to eircodes. The eircodes just aren't put into a field when the PPR database is released.


I had forgotten that Eircode is also redundant for Revenue, like every other use case :oops:
Could the PPR publish the LPT identifier?


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