http://m.independent.ie/business/person ... 11414.html

Interesting details on repossession proceedings, sticking to the facts. I particularly enjoyed the monthly breakdown figures for October, November and "Christmas month".

I feel a trick was missed by referring to q4 when Christmas quarter would have been more appropriate. Perhaps reports could include details such as "mr & mrs x" drew down €xmillion Euro during QEaster, spent the money during Qschool holidays and have not paid a cent since Christmas month 2007.

I posted that story on the residential arrears thread yesterday but hadn't twigged the reference to Christmas month.

I can only imagine the extra strain that'd be caused during mother-in-laws birthday month.

BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q4 2014 figures

(Note 1: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&start=2880)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link
http://www.centralbank.ie/polstats/stat ... tistics.pd

Arrears


Repossessions



Restructures



Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began

Conclusions

1. Arrears went from 31,619 Q3 2014 (22.1%) to 29,224 Q4 2014 (20.7%), a fall of -2,395 or -7.6%

2. 29,224 (20.7% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 25,334 (18.0% of all BTLs) restructured =
54,558 or 38.7% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (down from 56,561 or 39.5% in Q3 2014)

3. The arrears cases over 90 days (29,224) which is 20.7% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 460 properties in the 12 months from Q1 2014 and Q4 2014 = 1.57%

And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.

BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q1 2014 and Q4 2014 was 170 or just 0.58%, meaning
only 1 in 172 BTL mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.

This despite there being 6,815 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 15,386 over 2 years or more in arrears

I did some further analysis of the figures

Q4 2014 is the worst quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

- Total Arrears €000 @ 1,718,839
- over 180 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,658,823
- over 720 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,335,763
- Total Arrears Cases over 90 days outstanding, Arrears €000 @ 1,688,817

Q4 2014 is the best quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

- Residential properties in possession - at end of quarter, Number @ 635
- Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Number @ x25,334
- Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Balance €000 @ 6,353,612
- Total restructured, not in arrears, Number @ 16,511
- Total restructured, not in arrears, Balance €000 @ 4,002,098

BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q1 2015 figures

(Note 1: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&start=2880)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link
http://www.centralbank.ie/press-area/pr ... 12015.aspx

Arrears


Repossessions



Restructures


Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began

Conclusions

1. Arrears went from 29,224 Q4 2014 (20.7%) to 27,492 Q1 2015 (19.7%), a fall of -1,732 or -5.9%

2. 27,492 (19.7% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 25,676 (18.4% of all BTLs) restructured =
53,168 or 38.2% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (down from 54,558 or 38.7% in Q4 2014)

3. The arrears cases over 90 days (27,492) which is 19.7% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 593 properties in the 12 months from Q2 2014 and Q1 2015 = 2.16%

And 2/3 of these were voluntarily surrendered.

BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q2 2014 and Q1 2015 was 272 or just 0.99%, meaning
only 1 in 101 BTL mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.

This despite there being 6,160 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 15,361 over 2 years or more in arrears

I did some further analysis of the figures

Q1 2015 is the worst quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

- Total Arrears €000 @ 1,737,866
- over 180 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,685,872
- over 720 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,401,579
- Total Arrears Cases over 90 days outstanding, Arrears €000 @ 1,711,050

Q1 2015 is the best quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

- Residential properties in possession - at end of quarter, Number @ 654
- Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Number @ 25676
- Total restructured, not in arrears, Number @ 17,484
- Total restructured, not in arrears, Balance €000 @ 4,200,066

BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q2 2015 figures

(Note 1: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&start=2880)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link
http://www.centralbank.ie/press-area/pr ... 22015.aspx

Arrears



Repossessions



Restructures



Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began

Conclusions

1. Arrears went from 27,492 Q1 2015 (19.7%) to 26,057 Q2 2015 (19.0%), a fall of -1,435 or -5.2%

2. 26,057 (19.0% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 26,004 (18.9% of all BTLs) restructured =
52,061 or 37.9% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (down 53,025 or 38.1% in Q1 2015)

3. The arrears cases over 90 days (26,057) which is 19.0% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 730 properties in the 12 months from Q3 2014 and Q2 2015 = 2.8%

And 56% of these were voluntarily surrendered.

BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q3 2014 and Q2 2015 was 410 or just 1.57%, meaning
only 1 in 64 BTL mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.

This despite there being 5,485 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 15,276 over 2 years or more in arrears

I did some further analysis of the figures

Q2 2015 is the worst quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

- over 720 days, Arrears €000 @ 1,430,793

Q2 2015 is the best quarter so far since records began in Q1 2011 for

- Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Number @ 26,004
- Total outstanding classified as restructured - at end of quarter, Balance €000 @ 6,502,964
- Total restructured, not in arrears, Number @ 18,268
- Total restructured, not in arrears, Balance €000 @ 4,362,842

Likethe Residential figures, the BTL repos by Court Order are far high than prior years

Interesting to see 82% are classed as meeting terms of arrangement but only 70.25% are classed as not in arrears. This suggests that 14% (12% of the 82%) of those classed as meeting their terms are in arrears.

Given the increase in "% not in arrears" between Q1 2015 (68.4%) & Q2 2015 (70.25%) that some of the arrangements, provided for the paydown of outstanding arrears rather than capitalization of the arrears.

Does this reduction suggests some people are overpaying their "sustainable" rate, no?

BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q3 2015 figures

(Note 1: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&start=2880)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link
http://www.centralbank.ie/polstats/stat ... istics.pdf

Arrears



Repossessions





Restructures





Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began

Conclusions

1. Arrears went from 26,071 Q2 2015 (19.0%) to 24,890 Q3 2015 (18.1%), a fall of -1,181 or -4.5%

2. 24,890 (18.1% of all BTLs) in arrears over 90 days + 26,198 (19.0% of all BTLs) restructured =
51,088 or 37.1% of all BTLs in trouble of some sort (down 51,914 or 37.8% in Q2 2015)

3. The arrears cases over 90 days (26,071) which is 18.1% of all BTL mortgages outstanding, has resulted in repossessions of just 847 properties in the 12 months from Q4 2014 and Q3 2015 = 3.4%

And 38% of these were voluntarily surrendered.

BTL properties repossessed on foot of an Order between Q4 2014 and Q3 2015 was 525 or just 2.11%, meaning
only 1 in 47 BTL mortgages in arrears over 90 days are repossessed by court order.

This despite there being 4,786 mortgages over 1 year in arrears and a further 15,275 over 2 years or more in arrears

BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q4 2015 figures

(Note 1: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&start=2880)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link
http://www.centralbank.ie/polstats/stat ... istics.pdf

Arrears



Repossessions



Restructures



Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since records began

BTL Mortgage Arrears, Restructures and Repossessions Q1 2016 figures

(Note 1: Residential figures are discussed separately here viewtopic.php?f=10&t=44532&start=2880)
(Note 2: Analysis of Restructured Mortgages can be found here viewtopic.php?f=19&t=63422)

Report Link
http://www.centralbank.ie/press-area/pr ... 12016.aspx

Arrears



Repossessions



Restructures


Where Green = highest since records began and Blue = Lowest since

I see that although the number of residential arrears cases has continued to drop, the total monetary amount of arrears has increased for the first time since 2014. This has occurred in the >720 days category, but also slight increases in the <90 and <180 days categories. See graph here (note: residential only, not BTL).

Shouldn't this number be going down, not only because of general improvements but because arrears capitalisation is one of the available (and as far as I know, more common) restructuring arrangements?

My own theory is as follows:

Large chunks of people got in difficulty 2009 and 2013.

Once the labour market picked up those in 'circumstancial' arrears engaged and started repaying, using the odd lump sum to get back on track.

Those who could not or would not just stayed on strike.

Most of those <90 days now are in temporary spells of low income and will solve itself once individual circumstances improve. With risk of reposession at zero it is much cheaper to use your mortgage like an overdraft or credit card.

Meanwhile the 'would not or could not' group has stayed growing. Courts will not make orders for possession. Banks will not allow write downs either.

Updated chart shows PDH or BTL.
The total arrears amount on buy-to-lets is also up in all categories except 360-720 days.