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 Post subject: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:49 am 
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The following uses a sample of 3147 3-bed Dublin properties.

Image

I expect lots of noise in this data. The average number of 3-beds in the sample is 77/month, but number for Jan-May 2014 are only 36, 64, 48, 63, 51 respectively. However, they arguably agree with Mantissa's mix-unaware analysis.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:05 am 
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Lovely.

So the gap between asking and achieved troughed at about -15% in 2012 and most recently is up to +7%. The non-zero axes magnify this effect.

There is still a vast gulf between anecdotal ("everything is going 100k over asking and nothing is available under 400k") and statistical data.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:25 am 
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Wow, great work ps.

Quick questions
- Are you removing outliers? Is there any need?
- What % of the ads for 3-beds are you subsequently able to match to PPR entries, i.e. how complete do you think your coverage is?

For those not following the Great Index Debates, this is probably the best piece of analysis of Dublin 3-bed prices done by anyone, ever, across any medium (assuming it's correct and I see no reason to doubt ps's work). Puts MyHome/Daft/CSO to shame.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:30 am 
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Great work!!

What is the average asking price over the whole time?

It looks like the asking price and selling has generally moved closer together over the period which is interesting. With the PPR data being available, this is what I would expect.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:38 am 
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w.r.t asking prices, this is presumably last asking price.

Which isn't as useful as might be expected if you're looking at a house for sale, since you cannot know whether it will be re-listed higher or lower before it's eventual sale.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:43 am 
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The last 7 months have been bubblicious compared to the previous 24 months but have the CSO being reporting rises for much longer.

If you wish it, it will come true!!

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:54 am 
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ps200306 wrote:
The following uses a sample of 3147 3-bed Dublin properties.

Image

I expect lots of noise in this data. The average number of 3-beds in the sample is 77/month, but number for Jan-May 2014 are only 36, 64, 48, 63, 51 respectively. However, they arguably agree with Mantissa's mix-unaware analysis.



whats with the sale price way above asking in the last month?

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:55 am 
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jake76 wrote:
The last 7 months have been bubblicious compared to the previous 24 months but have the CSO being reporting rises for much longer.

If you wish it, it will come true!!


Would be interesting to get the data points so we can plot vs CSO, sunspots, etc. PS, would you be willing to post that in spreadsheet form?

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:10 pm 
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What is your definition of Dublin?


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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:35 pm 
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Mantissa wrote:
Wow, great work ps.

Agreed, well done!

Mantissa wrote:
For those not following the Great Index Debates, this is probably the best piece of analysis of Dublin 3-bed prices done by anyone, ever, across any medium (assuming it's correct and I see no reason to doubt ps's work). Puts MyHome/Daft/CSO to shame.

That's a bit harsh - even allowing for the fact that the CSO haven't yet been able to match BER records with stamp duty/PPR records, at least they're on the case. In addition, the Daft.ie Report has included a fully mix-adjusted large-scale version of this (i.e. both asking price and RPPR analysis, for the whole country) in each report for the last 18 months. Indeed, the first mix-adjusted analysis of RPPR data came out within three weeks of the launch of the RPPR:
http://www.ronanlyons.com/2012/10/16/th ... -register/

I would certainly expect robust discussion from someone such as yourself on the Daft.ie RPPR analysis, and indeed all house price analysis, but I wouldn't expect you to ignore that it exists.


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