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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:43 pm 
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Interesting chart.

If the data are correct, then we can see that sale prices only matched and exceeded asking prices around the time the market hype suggesting shortage of supply started to be ratcheted up by the EA's again. The question is ... which led to which?

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 12:54 pm 
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RonanL wrote:
Mantissa wrote:
Wow, great work ps.

Agreed, well done!

Mantissa wrote:
For those not following the Great Index Debates, this is probably the best piece of analysis of Dublin 3-bed prices done by anyone, ever, across any medium (assuming it's correct and I see no reason to doubt ps's work). Puts MyHome/Daft/CSO to shame.

That's a bit harsh - even allowing for the fact that the CSO haven't yet been able to match BER records with stamp duty/PPR records, at least they're on the case. In addition, the Daft.ie Report has included a fully mix-adjusted large-scale version of this (i.e. both asking price and RPPR analysis, for the whole country) in each report for the last 18 months. Indeed, the first mix-adjusted analysis of RPPR data came out within three weeks of the launch of the RPPR:
http://www.ronanlyons.com/2012/10/16/th ... -register/

I would certainly expect robust discussion from someone such as yourself on the Daft.ie RPPR analysis, and indeed all house price analysis, but I wouldn't expect you to ignore that it exists.


Ronan, would you care to link to your analysis of Dublin 3-beds? I have never seen such a thing and would be interested to read it.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 2:18 pm 
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Answers to questions:

The PPR data is based on a download from 08-Jun-2014; Myhome data based on 3-monthly snapshots since 2010, most recently 01-Apr-2014;

Mantissa wrote:
Are you removing outliers? Is there any need?

I'm going to say No. The standard deviations on price and on ratio of sale price to asking are not vast. Your question prompted me to look at extreme outliers -- there were two properties where sale price was 4% and 5% of asking, both from 2011 and clearly spurious. I haven't fixed this but won't make a vast difference to results.

Mantissa wrote:
What % of the ads for 3-beds are you subsequently able to match to PPR entries, i.e. how complete do you think your coverage is?

As you know, the only way to match the PPR and myhome data is by address. Matching addresses without house numbers is pointless, so I discard everything without one. I attempt some automated cleanup and standardisation on the addresses before matching, but the hit rate is poor. I have 630k myhome records, for 134k unique addresses of which 76k have house numbers. I only managed to match 12k of these against the PPR and when I limit it to houses for sale without any special conditions and with the PPR full price flag, it drops to under 11k. So the final match rate even after selecting only properties with house numbers is a measly one in seven.

jake76 wrote:
What is the average asking price over the whole time?

The average asking for Dublin 3-bed houses in the period from Jan-2011 is €275,800. The average selling price is €251,100.
For anyone brave enough to take the data in relational database form, those sorts of queries are simplified by some views, with the two above satisfied by:
Code:
select avg(price) from houseaddrmatch where numbeds=3 and region like 'dublin%' and pprsaledate>='201101';
select avg(pprprice) from houseaddrmatch where numbeds=3 and region like 'dublin%' and pprsaledate>='201101';


jake76 wrote:
It looks like the asking price and selling has generally moved closer together over the period which is interesting. With the PPR data being available, this is what I would expect.

I don't think the PPR has done that. While prices were falling, selling prices were below asking. When prices stabilised/rose selling was above asking. Probably the same in any market.

Eschatologist wrote:
w.r.t asking prices, this is presumably last asking price. Which isn't as useful as might be expected if you're looking at a house for sale, since you cannot know whether it will be re-listed higher or lower before it's eventual sale.

It's both better and worse than that. I have all the asking prices from my snapshots, so if I see a property more than once I have the data. But a) it's not easy to decide what to do with multiple prices, b) I only have 3-monthly snapshots so very coarse granularity. So, as you surmise, I'm using the latest price seen.

Carrot and stick wrote:
whats with the sale price way above asking in the last month?

It's based on 51 individual matches. Scanning the raw data by eye I don't see anything obviously spurious. It's just that there are a lot of them going above asking. The breakdown of the ratio of selling to asking is: under 90% - 5, 90-100% - 9, 100-110% - 20, 110-120% - 7, 120-130% - 5, 130-140% - 3, 140-150% - 2.

Mantissa wrote:
Would be interesting to get the data points so we can plot vs CSO, sunspots, etc. PS, would you be willing to post that in spreadsheet form?

You (or anyone) are welcome to the data. The format is twisty, though, and has multiple encoded fields for things like house type, sale type, tax type, price type etc. It makes much more sense as a relational database where it can be simplified using views. I suspect you're probably comfortable using an RDBMS. I'm using the open source H2 database which takes about 5 minutes to download, install, and get running. I could give you the data as a H2 database along with some illustrative sample queries. Can also do it in CSV format, but will have to be three separate tables and you will be on your own trying to join them. H2 has good facilities for importing and exporting csv data, which allows the raw data or the results of queries to be exported for massaging in spreadsheets etc.

KOR101 wrote:
What is your definition of Dublin?

If you do a search on myhome.ie you can choose a region/postcode. In Dublin you have a choice of any of the Dublin postcodes, or just Dublin, or Dublin south, north, west or county. All of those fall within my definition of Dublin since I'm using the myhome data to drive this.

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Last edited by ps200306 on Mon Jun 09, 2014 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 2:22 pm 
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ps200306 wrote:
Mantissa wrote:
Would be interesting to get the data points so we can plot vs CSO, sunspots, etc. PS, would you be willing to post that in spreadsheet form?

You (or anyone) are welcome to the data. The format is twisty, though, and has multiple encoded fields for things like house type, sale type, tax type, price type etc. It makes much more sense as a relational database where it can be simplified using views. I suspect you're probably comfortable using an RDBMS. I'm using the open source H2 database which takes about 5 minutes to download, install, and get running. I could give you the data as a H2 database along with some illustrative sample queries. Can also do it in CSV format, but will have to three separate tables and you will be on your own trying to join them.


PS, thanks but I wasn't even talking about the raw data; I just meant the two resulting data series charted in your graph above.


Thanks again for this analysis.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 2:34 pm 
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Mantissa wrote:
ps200306 wrote:
Mantissa wrote:
Would be interesting to get the data points so we can plot vs CSO, sunspots, etc. PS, would you be willing to post that in spreadsheet form?

You (or anyone) are welcome to the data. The format is twisty, though, and has multiple encoded fields for things like house type, sale type, tax type, price type etc. It makes much more sense as a relational database where it can be simplified using views. I suspect you're probably comfortable using an RDBMS. I'm using the open source H2 database which takes about 5 minutes to download, install, and get running. I could give you the data as a H2 database along with some illustrative sample queries. Can also do it in CSV format, but will have to three separate tables and you will be on your own trying to join them.


PS, thanks but I wasn't even talking about the raw data; I just meant the two resulting data series charted in your graph above.


Thanks again for this analysis.


Sure -- here's the totals, you can derive the averages used in the chart. Not sure how the tabs will come across in HTML, probably as spaces -- presume you can massage the text to recover tab data; if not gizza shout and I'll stick something up on a drive. (Might be a bit slow with further info ... I have a quantum physics exam on Thursday :shock: )

Code:
Month   Sample Count    Total PPR price    Total Asking price
201101   17    4,131,950     4,813,700
201102   29    8,306,700     9,079,750
201103   53    14,120,950     15,796,150
201104   49    13,755,500     15,680,850
201105   82    22,572,500     25,544,645
201106   78    21,844,750     24,780,295
201107   85    23,375,550     26,406,450
201108   77    21,430,477     24,343,650
201109   88    22,793,797     26,430,795
201110   97    23,648,316     27,688,650
201111   91    24,325,900     28,453,050
201112   122    28,599,200     33,109,200
201201   76    17,225,409     20,305,550
201202   79    16,530,578     19,520,300
201203   94    20,804,525     24,081,000
201204   95    22,958,050     26,787,000
201205   106    23,058,350     26,689,550
201206   114    24,550,550     27,368,500
201207   106    27,488,500     30,129,800
201208   103    24,303,963     27,134,500
201209   127    32,026,749     34,790,600
201210   129    28,853,658     32,016,050
201211   119    27,000,000     29,299,299
201212   164    42,420,717     45,007,900
201301   49    12,975,000     13,900,749
201302   57    13,358,100     14,320,050
201303   68    15,170,368     16,345,700
201304   58    14,699,000     15,695,200
201305   69    16,589,400     17,684,350
201306   73    17,068,000     18,993,850
201307   56    12,807,440     13,631,750
201308   42    9,713,950     10,717,800
201309   23    5,414,900     5,894,400
201310   42    9,923,450     10,449,450
201311   56    15,446,100     15,884,500
201312   112    34,957,500     35,159,950
201401   36    9,508,636     9,529,550
201402   64    20,252,400     19,877,300
201403   48    13,768,750     13,579,550
201404   63    17,683,200     17,442,950
201405   51    14,786,800     13,663,050

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 2:46 pm 
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I also have further data on the breakdown of the house types within the 3-bed Dublin category:

Image

However, slicing it even more ways than I did would result in very small samples.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:17 pm 
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Same again, for Dublin 4-beds. Sample sizes here are quite low, only 25 for that spike in Aug-13 and only 15 for May-14 so far, mostly around 50-60/month elsewhere. Total sample 1,599 4-bed Dublin houses. Interesting that average selling price has never overtaken average asking on 4-beds (apart from maybe last month). I thought that market was hotter than 3-beds, from anecdotal comments. I guess the moral is don't get caught in a bidding war on a 4-bed.

Image

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Last edited by ps200306 on Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:22 pm 
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Trojan work pa, fair play to you.


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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:24 pm 
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Wow! €200k for the extra bedroom.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:28 pm 
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Very good work PS!

8DD

Blue Horseshoe

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"Housing traditionally is not viewed as a great investment. It takes maintenance, it depreciates, it goes out of style". "So, why was it considered an investment? That was a fad. That was an idea that took hold in the early 2000's. And I don't expect it to come back. Not with the same force. So people might just decide, "I'll live in a rental." That is a very sensible thing for many people to do". Prof. Robert J.Shiller, Nobel Laureate in Economics, Feb 2013.


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