Board index » The IRISH PROPERTY BUBBLE » Sell, Buy or Rent?

Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 36 posts ]  [Go to page]   Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:31 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10875
jake76 wrote:
Wow! €200k for the extra bedroom.

Yeah, I remarked in some of my earlier price/sq.ft. analyses that you pay a massive premium for 4-beds in Dublin. They're even more expensive than 3-beds when measured by the sq.ft., whereas in the rest of the country you seem to get more economy of scale with prices per sq.ft. going down as you go to bigger houses.

On a broader note, looking at the 3- and 4-bed graphs, I can quite understand the "everything is up by €100k" anecdotes. If you were comparing, say, October last year with some of the prices around the turn of the year, to pull the averages up must have taken some pretty hefty individual increases. Added to that, people's anecdotes are always going to reflect the most bubbly prices, since they're the most memorable. Whether those increases can be sustained -- or are even being sustained now -- is questionable given the way the data for this year is bouncing around. I wouldn't be brave enough to make any predictions though (especially about the future :D )

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:53 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10875
And one more time ... about half the houses (1440) in the 3-bed graph were semi-detached -- maybe just enough to give reasonable samples. So here's a graph specifically for 3-bed Dublin semi-d's. The recent spike seems even more noticeable here, perhaps reflecting the greater desirability of those houses. However, that last data point is based on a mere 18 houses.

Image

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:56 pm 
Offline
Old Time Landlord

Joined: Jun 7, 2011
Posts: 375
Eschatologist wrote:
There is still a vast gulf between anecdotal ("everything is going 100k over asking and nothing is available under 400k") and statistical data.

I think ps200306's reply explains it easily enough.
ps200306 wrote:
If you do a search on myhome.ie you can choose a region/postcode. In Dublin you have a choice of any of the Dublin postcodes, or just Dublin, or Dublin south, north, west or county. All of those fall within my definition of Dublin since I'm using the myhome data to drive this.
There really is no such thing as a 'Dublin' market. Treating Balbriggan and Monkstown as one market just causes confusion. This must by the reason why the CSO and the anecdotes (which I believe to be true) paint almost completely different pictures of the market.

This site is too SCD centered, and is trying so very hard to be pessimistic in the face of contrary evidence. In many areas, property prices are still in the toilet.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 4:14 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10875
Updated with snazzy polynomial trendlines. Go long 4-beds and 3-bed semis. Short everything else. :D

Image

Image

Image

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 4:19 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Jan 4, 2013
Posts: 17351
You know this is the bit the Indo is gonna publish:

Image

On a more serious note, I would advise against including May 2014 numbers, or even April 2014 numbers. It takes ~45 days for 95% of properties to make it into the PPR.

_________________
— Try, fail, understand, win. —


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 4:49 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Feb 1, 2007
Posts: 2216
Mantissa wrote:
You know this is the bit the Indo is gonna publish:

Image




Image

That's how I picture Jody Corcoran :evil:

_________________
LEFT = RIGHT

Both trying to ride me...


Last edited by jake76 on Mon Jun 09, 2014 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 5:19 pm 
Offline
Planning Tribunal Attendee
User avatar

Joined: Jul 4, 2012
Posts: 1363
Id avoid using the last 2-3 months as the data is incomplete. You may get something very different when you look at it in a few months time. Especially when looking at averages. Median may be slightly more robust. Incidentally how normal is data?


Also given the low numbers of data - 3 month average are probably the shortest time period you can do any stats on give the low numbers.
In additon, some new 3 bed houses are coming up for sale. The release of a scheme may seriously effect any analysis.

_________________
A housing boom is the economic equivalent of a tapeworm infection Tim Harford

"Those who yearn for the end of capitalism should pray for government by men who believe that all positive action is inimical to what they call thoughtfully the fundamental principles of free enterprise." - JK Galbraith


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 8:47 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10875
KOR101 wrote:
There really is no such thing as a 'Dublin' market. Treating Balbriggan and Monkstown as one market just causes confusion. This must by the reason why the CSO and the anecdotes (which I believe to be true) paint almost completely different pictures of the market.

This site is too SCD centered, and is trying so very hard to be pessimistic in the face of contrary evidence. In many areas, property prices are still in the toilet.

With a bit of work I have the capability to slice up different sections of the Dublin market (and rest of country). The problem is that none of the resulting datasets will be big enough to be representative. You will end up with a collection of random points. The bottom line is that the current property market(s) is too small for a very convincing analysis and this is just an attempt to do something/anything better than reading chicken's entrails.

Mantissa wrote:
On a more serious note, I would advise against including May 2014 numbers, or even April 2014 numbers. It takes ~45 days for 95% of properties to make it into the PPR.

Yeah, I'm just playing with my shiny new toy at the minute ... experimenting with some homegrown infrastructure and fancy-schmancy Java 8 streams and lambdas for stats. Will firm it up for future efforts and decide what data to use when. Will look at (your?) previous threads on how quickly the PPR matures.

Carrot and stick wrote:
Id avoid using the last 2-3 months as the data is incomplete. You may get something very different when you look at it in a few months time.

Yep. See my reply to Mantissa.

Carrot and stick wrote:
Especially when looking at averages. Median may be slightly more robust. Incidentally how normal is data?

Very good point. On checking, I see the averages have quite a serious right skew to higher numbers. Medians are considerably lower and I may switch to that in the future.

Carrot and stick wrote:
Also given the low numbers of data - 3 month average are probably the shortest time period you can do any stats on give the low numbers. In additon, some new 3 bed houses are coming up for sale. The release of a scheme may seriously effect any analysis.

Sad but true. I may switch to reprocessing these numbers at the same time as my 3-monthly price/sq.ft. analysis. Might have to take on an assistant if the workload gets any bigger. :D


Mantissa wrote:
You know this is the bit the Indo is gonna publish...

Hey, we all know where the Indo's gonna get its info and it won't be my graphs :D

Image

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:12 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Jan 4, 2013
Posts: 17351
Here is a graph of the average "matched" sell price (from your data) vs the PPR Dublin all-property average.

You'll see the outliers in the "all PPR" data skewing the averages in some months, which obviously throws things off. Even so, there is pretty much no correlation between your numbers for 3-bed houses only, and the "all PPR" average (r=0.26). Not that surprising I guess. And it emphasises the importance of this sort of analysis -- most people don't care about "property", they care about specific types of properties in specific areas, and the two are not necessarily correlated.

Image


(Omitting April/May 2014, correlation is the simple CORREL() Pearson correlation).

Would love do get median numbers for the same data to see if it correlates any better...

_________________
— Try, fail, understand, win. —


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 9:54 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Apr 1, 2010
Posts: 10875
Mantissa wrote:
Would love do get median numbers for the same data to see if it correlates any better...

Knock yerself out!

EDIT: Moved to paste bin

Dublin 3-bed hse, 3-bed semi, 4-bed hse (view | download)

EDIT: Fixed bug causing wrong median ppr numbers

_________________
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" – Niels Bohr


Last edited by ps200306 on Tue Jun 10, 2014 4:22 am, edited 6 times in total.

Top
 Profile  
 



Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 36 posts ]  [Go to page]   Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next

    Board index » The IRISH PROPERTY BUBBLE » Sell, Buy or Rent?

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  

Follow, Retweet @dailypinster



Pyramid Built, Is Better Built! - Latest Property Discussions www.thepropertypin.com