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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:28 pm 
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Thanks for the analysis. I hope the May figures don't finish the way they started. Your price per square metres figures are also very useful for me.


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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 10:45 pm 
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Cheers ps.

Here is the "matched" median data for Dublin 3-bed houses as per your data vs all-proprtty Dublin median data.

Image

Somewhat closer but still nothing to write home about (r=0.53). Gets worse in the last year or so.

What do you make of all your averages and many of the medians being lower than the overall PPR numbers, which also contain apartments etc. Does that tell us anything about your data? Is there any risk of sample bias?

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:22 am 
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Mantissa wrote:
Cheers ps.

Here is the "matched" median data for Dublin 3-bed houses as per your data vs all-proprtty Dublin median data.

http://i.imgur.com/OGFQaau.png

Somewhat closer but still nothing to write home about (r=0.53). Gets worse in the last year or so.

What do you make of all your averages and many of the medians being lower than the overall PPR numbers, which also contain apartments etc. Does that tell us anything about your data? Is there any risk of sample bias?

Ta for that. I'm fairly satisfied that they are following the same rough trends. I'm not particularly surprised at the variances given the low sample sizes.

However, an overall sample bias would be more problematic. Could there be enough big poshy unnumbered houses to skew my numbered-houses-only results downward? I wouldn't have thought so. Is it possible that the big houses are less likely to be advertised on myhome.ie so that I don't pick them up? I doubt that too. Apart from the couple of definite spurious numbers I spotted, I did see more houses than I expected going for 40 or 50 or 60% of asking -- possibly repos? (Do you do any massaging of your data to remove outliers?)

So my guess is just that the average price for 3-beds is lower than the overall market average for housing. I can check that by taking numbers from my data for all houses and apartments and see where that gets us. I also have a category for commercial which I'll continue to leave out (farms, offices, retail and industrial units, etc.). I also leave out auction results by default, but I can include those too.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 12:56 am 
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Here you go. I haven't cheated by checking how these numbers differ, apart from noting the sample sizes are much bigger (6,747) as expected.
(EDIT: I sneaked a quick comparison graph of the averages -- they're much higher for the all-beds than 3-beds)

EDIT: Moved data to paste bin to save space and preserve formatting

Dublin all house and apartments, sale + auction (view | download)

EDIT: Apologies. Found a buglet that caused PPR median price to actually be the asking median price instead. Fixed in link above and for 3-beds on the original post.

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Tue Jun 10, 2014 2:33 pm 
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Mantissa wrote:
Cheers ps.

Here is the "matched" median data for Dublin 3-bed houses as per your data vs all-proprtty Dublin median data.

http://i.imgur.com/OGFQaau.png

Somewhat closer but still nothing to write home about (r=0.53). Gets worse in the last year or so.

What do you make of all your averages and many of the medians being lower than the overall PPR numbers, which also contain apartments etc. Does that tell us anything about your data? Is there any risk of sample bias?


Didn't have your data so I graphicked the "fixed" all-PPR matched median onto your graph (red line). Doesn't look like much of an improvement, and bears some investigation. Perhaps I'll first try to reproduce your graph from the PPR data. Another day's work, though.

Image

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 Post subject: Re: PPR mix-aware analysis
PostPosted: Tue Jun 17, 2014 5:58 am 
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Mantissa wrote:
Cheers ps.

Here is the "matched" median data for Dublin 3-bed houses as per your data vs all-proprtty Dublin median data.

Image

Somewhat closer but still nothing to write home about (r=0.53). Gets worse in the last year or so.


Ok here's my version of the same graph:

Image

Clearly something is amiss. My version of the median PPR price for all Dublin properties (light blue line) differs significantly from yours (orange line). Could you describe to me how you calculated your median?

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