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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:24 pm 
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muirgheasa wrote:
FreeFallin wrote:
No one in power is listening Ronan, pointless shouting about it at this stage

Why first-time buyers need no Budget help - says economist
http://www.independent.ie/business/budg ... 98113.html
Quote:
In a report from property group Daft, published this morning, Mr Lyons pointed out that the number of new homes being sold in Dublin and the rest of the country is continuing to rise.
He said that the number of new homes sold in Dublin was 63pc higher in the first half of 2016 than in the first six months of 2014. Elsewhere, the increase was 15pc.

"With this evidence, it is tough to argue that there is a compelling case for help for first-time buyers in the upcoming Budget," he said.
Mr Lyons argued that it is more important for the Government to tackle the actual cost of building new homes, which are subject to punitive VAT levies.


To be fair, it seems like this is more or less equivalent to a VAT reduction (albeit targeted specifically at first time buyers, rather than across the market).

Still agree that it would make more sense to target actual costs, rather than mess around with another messy and expensive-to-administer scheme, but I don't think this as far away from the "correct" policy as has been made out.

(For clarity: still don't think it's a "good" idea)

It's only the equivalent of a VAT reduction for the developer. Sale price of unit goes up to factor in increased buying power of FTBer. Developer makes more margin.

FTBer sees zero benefit as their mortgage amount is likely to be the same as before (based on LTI), but with a slightly better LTV amount.
But now that more of the FTBers will meet the LTV ratio limits, there will be more of them competing above a certain threshold.

Everyone's a loser... apart from the developer.
Ah, Ireland - is there anything you can't f#ck up?


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:08 am 
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Yesterday RTE was continuing the campaign for a FTB grant with an interview with some poor girl who was trying desperately to buy a house in Celbridge for 300k+. It really shed a bit of light on the main problem; the unrealistic expectations that people have about what a 'starter' home should be.

It was heartbreaking to be be out-bid in Celbridge. She said she could get a house in Kilcock, but it wasn't a runner because it would be a bit smaller and "when sitting on the toilet of one of the ensuites your feet would touch the side of the shower".

People need to read up on how other countries addressed their own housing crises over the years. A good start would be to read up on the 'Minimal Traditional' housing of the US after the Great Depression and WW2, and the FHA loan insurance system.

The one thing that would make a real difference would be teh introduction of a SITE VALUE TAX. Some of us have been banging on about it for years, but I get the sense that it is finally starting to enter the political discourse, or at least it's about to.


Last edited by Coles2 on Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:23 am, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:10 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

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Was that the same girl who welcomed the FTB grant but felt the best thing the Govt could do would be to put a cap on the price of houses!


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2016 9:13 am 
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FreeFallin wrote:
Was that the same girl who welcomed the FTB grant but felt the best thing the Govt could do would be to put a cap on the price of houses!

That's the very one! I wasn't sure how that was going to work. I think she wanted the asking price to be an actual sales price (like in a shop?).


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:21 am 
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Coles2 wrote:
FreeFallin wrote:
Was that the same girl who welcomed the FTB grant but felt the best thing the Govt could do would be to put a cap on the price of houses!

That's the very one! I wasn't sure how that was going to work. I think she wanted the asking price to be an actual sales price (like in a shop?).


Yet another reason why I stopped watching or listening to most RTE news or current affairs programs about 10 years ago. It's just nonsense, often with an agenda, often just sheer stupidity, always misleading.

Balance is not having two talking heads of opposing views where one head's view is based on undeniable fact and the other head's view is based on "the feels".

Or two heads representing balance where 95% of fact is behind one head, and 5% behind the other. John Oliver memorably tackled this on climate change on The Daily Show i think it was?

Or a lady wants changes to a marketplace because the current state of it doesn't fit with what she "feels" she should be able to buy. Now I have no love for the high cost, low quality, constricted supply Irish housing market - but I've zero tolerance for a lady who wants the market further distorted just enough so that she can get what she feels entitled to, and has no interest in trying to actually solve the fundamental underlying problems.


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:42 am 
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FTBer wrote:
Yet another reason why I stopped watching or listening to most RTE news or current affairs programs...<SNIP>

Balance is not having two talking heads of opposing views where one head's view is based on undeniable fact and the other head's view is based on "the feels".

Or two heads representing balance where 95% of fact is behind one head, and 5% behind the other. John Oliver memorably tackled this on climate change on The Daily Show i think it was?

Or, as I sometimes hear: having two talking heads, neither based on facts/logic, and both based on conflicting "feels"/prejudices/assumptions.


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:16 am 
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FTBer wrote:
Coles2 wrote:
FreeFallin wrote:
Was that the same girl who welcomed the FTB grant but felt the best thing the Govt could do would be to put a cap on the price of houses!

That's the very one! I wasn't sure how that was going to work. I think she wanted the asking price to be an actual sales price (like in a shop?).


Yet another reason why I stopped watching or listening to most RTE news or current affairs programs about 10 years ago. It's just nonsense, often with an agenda, often just sheer stupidity, always misleading.

Balance is not having two talking heads of opposing views where one head's view is based on undeniable fact and the other head's view is based on "the feels".

Or two heads representing balance where 95% of fact is behind one head, and 5% behind the other. John Oliver memorably tackled this on climate change on The Daily Show i think it was?

Or a lady wants changes to a marketplace because the current state of it doesn't fit with what she "feels" she should be able to buy. Now I have no love for the high cost, low quality, constricted supply Irish housing market - but I've zero tolerance for a lady who wants the market further distorted just enough so that she can get what she feels entitled to, and has no interest in trying to actually solve the fundamental underlying problems.


Last Week Tonight actually: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjuGCJJUGsg
(one of my favourites)

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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2016 6:58 pm 
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That's the one. Thanks. It never gets old... and could be applied to almost every RTE 'debate' about anything.

Couldn't recall if it was "Last Week Tonight" or when he was still on "The Daily Show".


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2016 2:44 pm 
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In the course of my job I meet a lot of different people from different backgrounds.

Yesterday I had a good chat with a self described developer. It's a family business. They are currently selling a new estate in Dublin.

I jovially asked "so since the budget have you put your prices up by €20,000?"

They replied: "no, we put them all up €20-40,000 a few days before the budget"

Who could have predicted that unintended consequence? :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:29 pm 
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Unintended?


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2016 3:41 pm 
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Coles2 wrote:
The one thing that would make a real difference would be teh introduction of a SITE VALUE TAX. Some of us have been banging on about it for years, but I get the sense that it is finally starting to enter the political discourse, or at least it's about to.

It's no less obvious or meritorious an idea than it was any time in the last few years; I don't see why it should gain traction now when it hasn't previously, particularly now that "the centre is holding".

I heard Noonan on the radio post-budget claiming AGAIN that supply would respond to rising prices because economics. He also described prices as "middling" or some such, and claimed that only poor people had problems finding a house they could afford to buy.

I've finally switched my view of Noonan from evil genius to village idiot.

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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2016 5:19 pm 
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Quote:
respond to rising prices because economics.


ah da "economics" ..bit like the da "fundamentals" or da" soft landing" ..leprechaun economics indeed.

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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:02 pm 
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Evil_g wrote:
Unintended?


Indeed Coveney has openly said he wants developers to make more money

Quote:
Mr Coveney said recent figures showed that less than 25% of homes are being purchased by first-time buyers whereas in a normal market that figure should be closer to 50%.

Mr Coveney said the Government was intervening to increase that figure and to close the viability gap between what it costs to build a new house and what it costs to buy.

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Borrowers seeking mortgages have had to resort to saving deposits, forcing many to sit by and watch house prices tumble without being able to do anything about it. Sunday Independent - June 1 2008

I know a lot of them, like [Jimmy] Flynn, [Noel] O’Flaherty and the Baileys. You meet the Baileys at Croke Park every time you go there. You can’t avoid getting a slap on the back going in from them. Most of these guys lost their shirt. I feel sorry for them - Bertie Ahern


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Fri Oct 14, 2016 8:36 pm 
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So does any other than the shower in government think this was a good idea?! Even the dogs in the street can see them for the charlatans that they are. Time to change the people in charge. Everyone I speak to have had enough of the perpetual bullshit.


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 Post subject: Re: Budget 2017 - First Time Buyers Income Tax Refund
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:08 pm 
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Coveney has been savaged by Colm McCarthy and the audience on the Claire Byrne Show. Dermot Bannon also on the panel and completely pointless.

Coveney really out of his depth with this one.


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