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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:19 am 
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https://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydn ... gic-2018-6

Sydney:

Image

Melbourne:

Image

Brisbane:

Image

Perth:

Image

Adelaide:

Image

Quote:
"At their peak the median value of a unit in the Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury region was in excess of $900,000 when you consider the distance from the city centre and the fact that house values are not that much more expensive it is not really a surprise to see large unit value falls in that region."


https://www.afr.com/real-estate/brisban ... 604-h10yg2

So typical, now that prices are falling the 'experts' are pointing out that it due all along


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:34 am 
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Mandurah! It's where all the cashed up bogans cashed out.

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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2018 8:34 am 
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and still falling in Perth!


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:09 am 
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Quote:
ANZ Bank has warned the pace of decline in Australia's house prices is "quite a bit larger" than expected, and likely to last longer than it previously forecast.

With national auction clearance rates at a five-year low, ANZ senior economist Daniel Gradwell predicted in a research note published on Wednesday that further weakness was in store for the housing market, before it would start stabilising later this year.


https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking ... 4zjr9.html

also today:

Quote:
GDP: Australia's economy grows at fastest pace in nearly two years
Household spending on insurance, transport, health care and utilities grew the most while spending on alcoholic drinks, cigarettes and eating out dropped, the data showed.
Some of that spending had to be funded by reduced saving, with the savings ratio falling to 2.1 per cent from 2.3 per cent.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-eco ... 4zjqz.html

solid GDP figure, will be watching the unemployment rate when its out on the 14th of June
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0

This is still a little too early for a housing decline to come up in these figures


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:08 am 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
Quote:
ANZ Bank has warned the pace of decline in Australia's house prices is "quite a bit larger" than expected, and likely to last longer than it previously forecast.

With national auction clearance rates at a five-year low, ANZ senior economist Daniel Gradwell predicted in a research note published on Wednesday that further weakness was in store for the housing market, before it would start stabilising later this year.


https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking ... 4zjr9.html

also today:

Quote:
GDP: Australia's economy grows at fastest pace in nearly two years
Household spending on insurance, transport, health care and utilities grew the most while spending on alcoholic drinks, cigarettes and eating out dropped, the data showed.
Some of that spending had to be funded by reduced saving, with the savings ratio falling to 2.1 per cent from 2.3 per cent.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-eco ... 4zjqz.html

solid GDP figure, will be watching the unemployment rate when its out on the 14th of June
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0

This is still a little too early for a housing decline to come up in these figures


Quote:
"This weakness is challenging our previous view that prices would stabilise and then recover somewhat to finish the year in positive territory.

"Additional headwinds are possible, such as the shift away from interest only loans," he warned.

“There could also be further tightening of credit as the impact of the current regulatory focus on mortgages flows through into lender behaviour.



but a soft landing in the end.........
Quote:
"All of this suggests that the fall in house prices will be quite a bit larger than we previously expected, with recovery coming later."

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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:15 pm 
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Quote:
Michael is a director of Metropole Property Strategists who help their clients grow, protect and pass on their wealth through independent, unbiased property advice and advocacy. He's once again been voted Australia's leading property investment adviser

https://propertyupdate.com.au/how-much- ... 01fbc5b8c5

We really do have shit systems that make people like that millionaires


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 6:09 am 
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First SQM research predicted property would drop 4%
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-07/s ... de/9734388

Then Morgan Stanley reckoned 8%
https://www.marketsandmoney.com.au/you- ... 018/05/23/

now the prediction, from ANZ Bank, is 10%
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking ... l#comments

This is what has actually happened so far:

Quote:
◾The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities fell 0.7% in the March quarter 2018. The index rose 2.0% through the year to the March quarter 2018.

◾The capital city residential property price indexes fell in Sydney (-1.2%), Melbourne (-0.6%), Perth (-0.9%), Brisbane (-0.6%) and Darwin (-1.1%) and rose in Hobart (+4.3%), Adelaide (+0.5%) and Canberra (+0.9%).

◾Annually, residential property prices rose in Hobart (+14.1%), Melbourne (+6.2%), Canberra (+3.8%), Adelaide (+2.6%) and Brisbane (+1.6%) and fell in Darwin (-6.5%), Perth (-1.5%) and Sydney (-0.5%).

http://abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lat ... num=&view=

also adjust for population their building rate isn't anywhere near our infamous 90,000 dwellings a year

Quote:
the number of residential dwellings rose by 40,600 to 10,052,600 in the March quarter 2018.


The floor really depends on whether supply has been above demand or not and you can find cases for both. The fact of the matter is that a huge amount of property purchased in the last 10 years here has been speculative and with interest only loans. 'Equity release' has also been a big player and people are in debt up to their eyeballs.

Quote:
HEALTH insurance premiums are going up, transport fares always seem to be heading north and the Government still seems to be circling a multitude of taxes sizing up which one to hike.


But in a refreshing bolt from the blue, which is sure to leave many people going “wait, what did you say?” rents for houses and flats have failed to rise this year and are growing at their weakest rate since 1996.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy ... 50d6318184

Rents would indicate that demand has probably been met. Which is likely why the inward migration program is being run at all time highs (peaked in February with 84,440 new long term arrivals). January to April (inclusive) this year has seen 241,480 long term arrivals (these are new, it does not include returning).

The data is buried in here:
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf ... enDocument

as part of a media release that makes no mention of it
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Pro ... enDocument
The population here will hit 25 million in less than a month
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Web ... t&ref=HPKI

The next long term drought in the densely populated areas will hit hard.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:59 am 
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APRA tightened lending to investors in 2017 to take the sting out of the market however they have eased this tightening in 2018...presumably as they may see the market dropping more than anticipated.
Still, with the massive amount of immigration I'm not sure if it will correct strongly. Hard to tell


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:10 pm 
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E92 335i wrote:
APRA tightened lending to investors in 2017 to take the sting out of the market however they have eased this tightening in 2018...presumably as they may see the market dropping more than anticipated.
Still, with the massive amount of immigration I'm not sure if it will correct strongly. Hard to tell



Thats right, as long as they can keep increasing inward migration they`ll keep some sort of a floor under any correction.
Its hard to know if the banks are at risk systemically though. The real test hasnt happened yet.

If an 8 - 10% drop does occur it wipes out alot of equity. My guess is the banks are in trouble if there is a 10% drop this time.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:44 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:

The floor really depends on whether supply has been above demand or not and you can find cases for both. The fact of the matter is that a huge amount of property purchased in the last 10 years here has been speculative and with interest only loans. 'Equity release' has also been a big player and people are in debt up to their eyeballs.


Quote:
By 2015, interest-only loans had grown to almost 40 per cent of outstanding housing credit in Australia.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-19/f ... st/9886430
Image

:shock:

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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:00 am 
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This is why wages are going nowhere, as already posted there no longer is a skills shortage in Australia as many new migrants struggle to find anything but menial work.

Quote:
Foreign workers can be brought into Australia on the new 457-style visa as long as employers tried to hire Aussies first … on LinkedIn


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-20/l ... sa/9883386

more info:
Quote:
•Dr Bob Birrell from the Australian Population Research Institute latest report, based on 2016 Census data, revealed that most recently arrived skilled migrants (i.e. arrived between 2011 and 2016) cannot find professional jobs, with only 24% of skilled migrants from Non-English-Speaking-Countries (who comprise 84% of the total skilled migrant intake) employed as professionals as of 2016, compared with 50% of skilled migrants from Main English-Speaking-Countries and 58% of the same aged Australian-born graduates. These results accord with a recent survey from the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, which found that 53% of skilled migrants in Western Australia said they are working in lower skilled jobs than before they arrived, with underemployment also rife.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/0 ... e-locally/


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:52 am 
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AX hits 10 year high
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets ... 11lls.html


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 3:36 am 
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Quite a different prediction:

Quote:
Australia's housing slump could prove short-lived, according to a report from CoreLogic and Moody's, with solid employment growth, loose monetary policy, decelerating supply and easing of some controls on lending helping to lift prices across the country after this year's shallow dip.

CoreLogic-Moody Analytics' latest Home Value Index Forecast sees Sydney house prices recovering next year after a total 5 per cent decline for 2018. Healthy demand for apartments, meanwhile, will help this segment retain its value in 2018.

Nationally, house values will fall 0.5 per cent throughout 2018 after climbing 8.6 per cent in 2017, the report finds.

https://www.afr.com/markets/housing-dow ... 621-h11nqd


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Jun 28, 2018 11:44 am 
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Quote:
"Funding costs have significantly risen since February this year and have primarily been driven by an increase in 30 and 90 day BBSW rates, along with elevated competition for term deposits," he said.

"While the bank has absorbed these costs for some time, the changes announced today [Wednesday] will help to offset the ongoing impact of the increased funding costs."

"Like most banks, we use our customer's deposits to fund the loans we make to our borrower members and we pay interest to attract and use these deposits.

"Over the last few months, the cost of this money has increased and as a result we are having to pass on some of this increased cost."

Auswide's managing director Martin Barrett also regrets increasing the mortgage rates.

"We're not profiteering from this, as we're still making a mild loss," he told the ABC.

He also did not rule out the possibility his bank might be forced to absorb the further costs.


Image

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-27/b ... ke/9914990



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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Jun 29, 2018 6:07 pm 
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Quote:
How Australia’s Banks Became the
World’s Biggest Property Addicts


https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018 ... umer-debt/
Quote:
Australia is riding out a huge gamble on property. The bet: 27 years of recession-free economic growth—during which Sydney home prices surged fivefold—would continue unabated and allow borrowers to keep servicing their debt.

The gamble has turned dicey. Tighter lending rules are deterring investors, and lofty prices are starting to deflate. A banking probe is exposing dodgy practices, and a mountain of risky loans that helped fuel the bubble needs refinancing—just as global borrowing costs rise. Now Australians are stuck with the highest household debt levels among G20 nations.

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