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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:51 am 
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Too Big to Fail

Joined: Aug 8, 2008
Posts: 3635
Location: Cathair na dTreabh
Prepare for hard landing in Australian housing market, OECD warns
Australia should start preparing for house-price induced downward spiral - OECD
'Yeah, nah': The OECD has its eye on Australia's property market and it's worried

House of cards - very good detail
With about 55% of the wealth of Australians tied up in property, fear is mounting that the downturn in housing could affect the broader economy.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:19 pm 
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IMF'd

Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31887
Location: Tullamore
If the OECD are saying it, it's already too late.

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"It is impossible to design a system so perfect that no one needs to be good."

So long and thanks for all the fish.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Mon Dec 10, 2018 11:26 pm 
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 9011
Location: Hollywood
Quote:
It is the level of interest rates that matters and they can still move lower. We have also been able to examine the experience of others with other tools of monetary policy and have learned from that. Hopefully, we won’t ever have to put that learning into practice. QE is a policy option in Australia, should it be required. There are less government bonds here, which may make QE more effective. But most of the traction in terms of borrowing rates in Australia is at the short end of the curve rather than the longer end of the curve, which might reduce the effectiveness of QE. The RBA’s balance sheet can also expand to help reduce upward pressure on funding, if necessary, as occurred in 2008.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/1 ... ic-button/


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:01 am 
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Of Systemic Importance

Joined: Sep 13, 2012
Posts: 5465
Falling interest rates didn't reverse Ireland's crash.

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"It's easy to confuse what is with what ought to be, especially when what is has worked out in your favour"
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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:50 am 
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 9011
Location: Hollywood
Quote:
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has removed the 30 per cent limit on interest-only lending and 10 per cent investor growth cap, declaring they have "served their purpose".


10.40am post on the stock market live page
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets ... 199pr.html


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:07 pm 
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First Time Buyer

Joined: Jul 24, 2018
Posts: 97
Quote:

Sydney property prices keep the Reserve Bank of Australia awake at night

~not surprising given their nothing to see BS over the last 10 years
https://www.afr.com/news/economy/moneta ... 219-h199q5


Quote:
Prices in Australia's biggest city have tumbled 10 per cent and some economists are tipping a similar fall next year.

While the central bank isn't panicking just yet, a 15 per cent nationwide drop in prices would cut about $1 trillion from the housing stock value. That could deal a major blow to consumption, which props up about 60 per cent of the economy.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:36 pm 
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Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 9011
Location: Hollywood
Long shorts are really working out now, at least this time around I`m not a student and was able to get stuck in good and early.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets ... 2ea2c891bb
Quote:
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was down 4.2 points, or 0.08 per cent to 5576.4 at 1200 AEDT on Thursday, having earlier dipped below a December 2016 trough of 5552.5.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:18 am 
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Nationalised

Joined: Nov 6, 2006
Posts: 9011
Location: Hollywood
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/1 ... ent-flood/

Quote:
Dr Cameron Murray – an economics lecturer at the University of Queensland:

A thread on my experience:

1. 90% of students in my economics masters classes are international.
2. Half of them struggle with basic English
3. When I ask in tutorials why they are doing the degree, half tell me that they “need more points for their residency visa” (1/n)
4. They tell me they choose economics because they can do the maths but don’t need to understand anything or write anything.
5. I always set written essays or reports. Students tell me that they know other students are using paid ‘essay writing’ services to pass my class (2/n)
6. If half the class can’t understand English it brings down standards. It must—unless I fail half the class.
7. Think about the incentives—a casual lecturer who costs $25,000 fails 50 students paying $250,000. Change lecturer next year or reduce intake to keep standards? (3/n)
8. It is frustrating when top international students from foreign governments/central banks come to your class, then sit next to rich Chinese (almost always Chinese) who can’t understand a word and are there to buy a visa (4/n)
9. The evidence shows the effect on standards is real. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1200028310
None of this is a secret. That research is from 2011. Here’s an article from 2014: https://www.smh.com.au/education/academ ... 1lbdi.html
10. Unfortunately, this reality conflicts with the widely believed myth that our immigration program brings in “high skilled” workers.
11. 350,000 international students paying $25,000+ per year to study is $9billion being pumped through our top dozen universities. (6/n)
12. Halving the number of international students would keep all the good students, boost standards for all, and remove the visa scams.
13. But this would remove $4.5billion per year of revenue to the universities. (7/n)
14. In sum, universities are being degraded so they can be used as a back-door immigration program, and no one at the senior levels of universities or major political parties want to change it.
15. It is nearly career suicide for younger academics to say anything about it (8/8)

I forgot to add that almost every student I failed or called out for plagiarism got second and third chances until they passed. After the first chance it is taken out of my hands to higher ups at the faculty…

There is nothing new in this thread. @4corners did a big investigation a few years ago. Nothing changed AFAIK. People are just used to the new reality. https://economics.com.au/2015/04/17/uni ... c-anymore/

More here: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher ... f68be73a8f and here: https://economics.com.au/2011/03/16/are ... e-revenue/


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anecdote from a comment:
Quote:
At UNSW, if you are the only non-Chinese student in a finance tutorial, and the tutor (also Chinese) will conduct the tutorial in Mandarin.


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:05 am 
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Of Systemic Importance
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Joined: Aug 20, 2009
Posts: 5207
Great post and article. Yikes is all I can say!

With China cracking down on the money that can be removed to countries like Australia, will this stop the gravy train of rich foreign students?


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 Post subject: Re: Ominous signs in Australia
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2018 1:34 am 
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Real Estate Developer

Joined: Aug 19, 2011
Posts: 970
What is the future of Australia's housing market?
3 parts


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