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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:03 am 
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Of the many, many examples of mal-investment in China lately this is my current favourite. A $1b movie theme park that closed for 'renovations' within two years of opening after hugely undershooting visitor forecasts.

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fi ... story.html

At some point the consequences of the hugely expensive, chronically loss-making ventures that China has been splurging on for years will catch up with them. They can probably keep the charade going for a while yet though.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2017 2:49 pm 
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Real Estate Developer

Joined: Jun 13, 2008
Posts: 760
Every country in Asia has abandoned amusement parks.
It's a thing here..don't know why..probably hard to make money from 'em.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:44 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 12:23 am 
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How is there a bubble with the massive amount of oversupply?

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Irving Fisher, economist, October 17, 1929 - "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau"
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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sun Feb 12, 2017 10:24 am 
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Real Estate Developer

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Because China is still booming, relatively, and buying a house is a prequisite to getting married and sending your kids to the local school usually. Buying a house in the right city and right area is where the price inflation comes from.

But China is a BIG country..it really depends which city we are taking about.
One things for certain,there is no lack of houses there.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:45 am 
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Several Chinese colleagues have told me that its relatively common for new build high rise flats to be purchased but then kept in 'shell' form i.e. bare concrete, no fit out. Makes them easier to sell on in future apparently. No one lives in them of course, they're bought for anticipated capital gains not rental yield. So its all incredibly speculative.

No idea of the extent of it but if common would help to explain simultaneous sky-high supply and price rises in the major cities.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:18 pm 
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Neo Landlord

Joined: Nov 10, 2006
Posts: 203
Location: Barcelona
Rutgers wrote:
Several Chinese colleagues have told me that its relatively common for new build high rise flats to be purchased but then kept in 'shell' form i.e. bare concrete, no fit out. Makes them easier to sell on in future apparently.


And if you believe that, I've got a Bridge to sell you..


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:30 pm 
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Too Big to Fail

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soma wrote:
Rutgers wrote:
Several Chinese colleagues have told me that its relatively common for new build high rise flats to be purchased but then kept in 'shell' form i.e. bare concrete, no fit out. Makes them easier to sell on in future apparently.


And if you believe that, I've got a Bridge to sell you..

I don't know about China, but it isn't unheard of in London for buyers to buy a shell and leave it as such, the property is still a property when they come to sell it on.
A bit like playing monopoly.

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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 9:36 pm 
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soma wrote:
Rutgers wrote:
Several Chinese colleagues have told me that its relatively common for new build high rise flats to be purchased but then kept in 'shell' form i.e. bare concrete, no fit out. Makes them easier to sell on in future apparently.


And if you believe that, I've got a Bridge to sell you..
The ADVChina video posted above details the same thing. It's well worth watching. A great series.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:18 pm 
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Chinese wages higher than Brazil & Mexico

Quote:
Average wages in China's manufacturing sector have soared above those in countries such as Brazil and Mexico, the Financial Times reports.
Average hourly wages in China's manufacturing sector trebled between 2005 and 2016 to $3.60, according to Euromonitor, while during the same period manufacturing wages fell from $2.90 an hour to $2.70 in Brazil, from $2.20 to $2.10 in Mexico, and from $4.30 to $3.60 in South Africa.
Across China's labor force as a whole, hourly incomes now exceed those in every major Latin American state apart from Chile, and are at around 70% of the level in weaker eurozone countries.


http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/chinese-wages-higher-brazil-mexico


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 12:41 pm 
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Old Time Landlord

Joined: Jun 23, 2011
Posts: 384
mr_anderson wrote:
Chinese wages higher than Brazil & Mexico

Quote:
Average wages in China's manufacturing sector have soared above those in countries such as Brazil and Mexico, the Financial Times reports.
Average hourly wages in China's manufacturing sector trebled between 2005 and 2016 to $3.60, according to Euromonitor, while during the same period manufacturing wages fell from $2.90 an hour to $2.70 in Brazil, from $2.20 to $2.10 in Mexico, and from $4.30 to $3.60 in South Africa.
Across China's labor force as a whole, hourly incomes now exceed those in every major Latin American state apart from Chile, and are at around 70% of the level in weaker eurozone countries.


http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/chinese-wages-higher-brazil-mexico



Indeed. A decade ago, China was the place to go for low cost manual assembly. There was a wave of anti-automation, products that were made on highly automated assembly lines in the west were being replaced by products built built using much less sophisticated manual assembly. This allowed products to be brought to market much more quickly because it wasn't necessary to go through the slow and costly process of building automated production lines, it also allowed production volumes to be scaled up or down very quickly.

With increased labour costs now, the one thing it doesn't offer is inertia, it's possible to start up operations in lower cost locations without the traditional worries of having to transfer large amounts of capital equipment. With complex automated assembly lines, you'd typically have to build up inventory, shut down and decommission the line in its existing location, ship it to the new location, install and recommission it and then begin the process of ramping it up to the previously attained throughput and yield, it was a big risk.

Local governments in China are fighting to retain employment, some foreign companies are being offered significant cash incentives related to production volumes to keep existing operations in China. It's hard to see this strategy working out well.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:21 pm 
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Planning Tribunal Attendee

Joined: Sep 15, 2015
Posts: 1471
soma wrote:
Rutgers wrote:
Several Chinese colleagues have told me that its relatively common for new build high rise flats to be purchased but then kept in 'shell' form i.e. bare concrete, no fit out. Makes them easier to sell on in future apparently.


And if you believe that, I've got a Bridge to sell you..


I can see this. Leaves the developer free to wait for a demand spike, then quickly produce accommodation to current standards, rather than investing the money to finish them upfront and then being potentially left with outdated accommodation. Would only make sense where demand is currently being met, but is expected to exceed supply at some stage. Which probably isn't _that_ unrealistic for the likes of Shanghai. It seems a bit like selling options on building an apartment block.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 9:52 pm 
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Posts: 889
Worstpigeon wrote:
soma wrote:
Rutgers wrote:
Several Chinese colleagues have told me that its relatively common for new build high rise flats to be purchased but then kept in 'shell' form i.e. bare concrete, no fit out. Makes them easier to sell on in future apparently.


And if you believe that, I've got a Bridge to sell you..


I can see this. Leaves the developer free to wait for a demand spike, then quickly produce accommodation to current standards, rather than investing the money to finish them upfront and then being potentially left with outdated accommodation. Would only make sense where demand is currently being met, but is expected to exceed supply at some stage. Which probably isn't _that_ unrealistic for the likes of Shanghai. It seems a bit like selling options on building an apartment block.


As coles has said it's in the video.
The flipper leaves it as a shell so the future buyer doesn't have to spend money striping it back

_________________
Jean-Claude Juncker - “We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we’ve done it.”
Irving Fisher, economist, October 17, 1929 - "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau"
Gold and Economic Freedom by Alan Greenspan - 1966
Milton Friedman best moments


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:56 am 
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Real Estate Developer

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Posts: 760
Indeed some buyers prefer an empty shell as its common to redecorate on purchase of an apartment.
China's big cities have become very developed now its an incredible thing to see how they have invested in themsevles. They are also continuing to invest very heavily in precision machinery , biooharma and medical research to name just a few areas..

Mostly pushing to locate high end R&D and engineering in China now, they are on the right track.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:56 pm 
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Here’s What We Now Know About China’s Capital Outflow Controls - -> http://fortune.com/2016/12/01/china-cap ... -controls/

Quote:
China's central bank has circulated new rules for companies which make yuan-denominated loans to overseas entities, sources with direct knowledge of the matter said, the latest in a slew of measures by Beijing to control capital outflows.

The move comes after the yuan fell to more than eight-year lows, fueling attempts by firms to get their money out of the country and leading to Beijing taking aim at outbound investments and underground banks suspected of aiding capital flight.

there is more


China net 2016 outflows at record $725 billion: IIF --> http://www.reuters.com/article/us-emerg ... SKBN15H1FL

About the EB-5 Visa Classification - -> https://www.uscis.gov/working-united-st ... sification

China's 'Smurfs' Beat Cash Controls, Sending Real Estate Soaring - -> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... te-soaring

Bank of China applies to set up Irish branch - -> http://www.thejournal.ie/bank-of-china- ... 8-Mar2017/

Hong Kong family backs Central Bank building buy - -> http://www.irishtimes.com/business/comm ... -1.2939950

Quote:
A company owned by one of Hong Kong’s 50 richest families has emerged as the joint buyer of two landmark Dublin buildings synonymous with the country’s financial crisis: the Central Bank buildings on Dame Street and the former Irish Nationwide Building Society (INBS) headquarters.
Peterson Group, set up in 1959 by Yeung Pui Kam in Hong Kong initially to trade Chinese tablecloths and embroidered fabrics internationally, is acquiring the properties for more than €100 million in conjunction with US real-estate firm Hines, which was previously known to be the winning bidder for the buildings.

there is more


Kushner got $50M in EB-5 funding for Trump Bay Street - -> https://therealdeal.com/2016/03/07/kush ... ay-street/

Letter From Senators Regarding EB-5 Visa Program - -> https://www.nysenate.gov/newsroom/artic ... sa-program

China: First capital inflows in 34 months – Standard Chartered - -> https://www.fxstreet.com/news/china-fir ... 1703200610

China's Capital Controls Trigger a Backlash After Scrapped Deals - -> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-thwarted


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