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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 1:31 am 
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https://twitter.com/thechinahustle

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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:47 am 
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snaps wrote:


Seems like old news? This from five years ago seems to contain most of the story.

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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:14 pm 
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Quote:
China has tried just about everything to tame a property market in which home prices sometimes jump around like the value of Bitcoin.

Over the years, in one city or another, it has limited mortgage lending. It has tried to halt purchases of homes by people who already own one. It has plowed billions of dollars into building new homes that regular Chinese people can afford.

Now the Chinese government is considering adopting something that, while familiar to homeowners in the United States and elsewhere, could dramatically reshape the world’s second-largest economy: a property tax.


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/22/busi ... y-tax.html

Image

Quote:
monthly movements in Chinese new home prices by size of city.

Tier one are the largest, with tier two and three progressively smaller in scale.

As Dhar explains, the slowdown in China, like Australia’s, largely reflects attempts from policymakers to slow what were rapidly increasing house prices in the previous two years.
“Despite the policy clampdown on property prices, mortgage lending is up over 20% [over the] year,” he says.
Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com.au/chin ... QmtsTrO.99


https://www.businessinsider.com.au/chin ... sks-2018-1

As pointed out in various places on the forum many of the international threads are circa 10 years old

Quote:
Many investors snap up homes — in China, they are mostly apartments — hoping to ride a price surge. In the biggest cities, property prices on average have at least doubled over the past eight years. But vast numbers of apartments in many cities lie empty, either because the buyers have no intention of moving in or renting out, or because speculators built homes that nobody wants.

In October, Xi Jinping, China’s president, told the nation that “houses are built to be inhabited, not for speculation.”

Real estate fervor was on display on a chilly recent morning at an apartment complex in the eastern city of Nanjing. Would-be buyers spent the night in tents and under quilts, lined up for a chance to buy. So many cars arrived, according to people who were there and photos that went viral on social media, that traffic seized up for a mile around the sales office.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 8:36 pm 
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What is interesting in household debt is how really rich countries are full of debt and poor ones are "solid":
https://data.oecd.org/hha/household-debt.htm


or based on my home country, in 90s we were very poor compared to lets say Germans, now we are just poor ;)
Maybe we were so poor that we could not afford credit?
https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/hou ... ebt-to-gdp
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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:36 am 
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-26/x ... ut/9484468

Quote:
Mr Xi has a doctrine, "Xi Jinping Thought for the New Era of Socialism with Chinese Special Characteristics". This is Mr Xi's China Dream.

A more powerful military; domestic security (code for winding back human rights, locking up dissidents and potential rivals); asserting Chinese sovereignty; and extending his country's economic reach: these are the hallmarks of the Xi era.

At the centre of it all is the survival of the Communist Party: as The Economist wrote, Mr Xi is "putting the Communist back into Communist China".

Now he will have more time to achieve it: the party is moving to lift the two-term limit on the presidency, clearing the way for Mr Xi to be leader for life.


Interesting to see money or fear talks in Australia:
Quote:
Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has refused to buy into China’s clearing the way for President Xi Jinping to stay in power indefinitely, describing Mr Xi as “a very effective leader” and saying the nation’s constitution is its own business.


https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 4z1s5.html


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Tue Feb 27, 2018 3:56 pm 
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Blindjustice BATONEFFECT wrote:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-26/xi-jinping-is-the-leadership-change-we-should-be-talking-about/9484468

Quote:
Mr Xi has a doctrine, "Xi Jinping Thought for the New Era of Socialism with Chinese Special Characteristics". This is Mr Xi's China Dream.

A more powerful military; domestic security (code for winding back human rights, locking up dissidents and potential rivals); asserting Chinese sovereignty; and extending his country's economic reach: these are the hallmarks of the Xi era.

At the centre of it all is the survival of the Communist Party: as The Economist wrote, Mr Xi is "putting the Communist back into Communist China".

Now he will have more time to achieve it: the party is moving to lift the two-term limit on the presidency, clearing the way for Mr Xi to be leader for life.


Interesting to see money or fear talks in Australia:
Quote:
Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has refused to buy into China’s clearing the way for President Xi Jinping to stay in power indefinitely, describing Mr Xi as “a very effective leader” and saying the nation’s constitution is its own business.


https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 4z1s5.html

TBH, while this is going to be bad for dissident Chinese in the short term, and the Chinese people in the long term, its probably a good thing overall for western governments. It pretty much guarantees that China is going to go down a stagnant route, like the Soviet Union. Arguably, while the previous transitions in power were orchestrated to bring in "safe" leaders, the 10 year limit did at least mean a fresh turnover of new leaders and energy.
Now the loyalty of up and coming leaders will need to be to a man, not the party. This is probably going to cause a long, slow rundown of the country over time, and there will be much more pent up energy that will only be released when Xi dies, and which is more likely to be all directed internally rather than externally.
I can think of plenty of other countries with autocratic leaders that have gone this way and can't think offhand of one where this worked out well.


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 2:22 am 
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Quote:
The US today said it was for China to decide “what is best for their country” after the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) proposed to abolish presidential term limits, a move that could allow President Xi Jinping to rule for life. “I believe that’s a decision for China to make about what’s best for their country,” White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders told reporters at her daily news conference. She said term limits “is something that President Donald Trump supports here, but that’s a decision that would be up to China”. “The President has talked about term limits in a number of capacities during the campaign. It’s something that he supports here in the US. But that’s a decision that would be up to China,” Sanders said.

http://www.financialexpress.com/world-n ... s/1080862/


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:09 pm 
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london_irish wrote:
TBH, while this is going to be bad for dissident Chinese in the short term, and the Chinese people in the long term, its probably a good thing overall for western governments. It pretty much guarantees that China is going to go down a stagnant route, like the Soviet Union. Arguably, while the previous transitions in power were orchestrated to bring in "safe" leaders, the 10 year limit did at least mean a fresh turnover of new leaders and energy.
Now the loyalty of up and coming leaders will need to be to a man, not the party. This is probably going to cause a long, slow rundown of the country over time, and there will be much more pent up energy that will only be released when Xi dies, and which is more likely to be all directed internally rather than externally.
I can think of plenty of other countries with autocratic leaders that have gone this way and can't think offhand of one where this worked out well.


Never thought about that, but it's an excellent point.
Xi has gone down the Castro route.
Maduro is also trundling down this path (Most popular opposition, Henrique Capriles is barred from office while Leopoldo Lopez is under house arrest).

I'm stunned at the Chinese for deciding on this measure.
Although I'm wondering if they expect some major (internal) conflict as the economy cools and the citizens become restive and see a strong hand as the best counter ?


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:39 pm 
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Quote:
Although I'm wondering if they expect some major (internal) conflict as the economy cools and the citizens become restive and see a strong hand as the best counter ?


Niall Ferguson explained it as a deep historically based fear of Dòngdàng or turmoil.

He has posted the series on his youtube page.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLSP9UbXmBuqpVq8N4bT-u_Uw4rCXH5vyL


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:11 pm 
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The same Niall Ferguson who went from calling brexit "a stairwell to hell" to supporting it after the vote.

I reckon he'll do another switcheroo soon.

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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:38 pm 
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Didn't know Ferguson was persona non grata.

People are entitled to change their minds no?


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:48 pm 
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snaps wrote:
Didn't know Ferguson was persona non grata.

People are entitled to change their minds no?

Of course people can choose to make the most of a new situation but he decided to cash in on EU = Germany narrative and went full Brextard. It makes sense if your target audience is the anglosphere. Got to keep the punters happy.

I'm certain that if Brexit collapsed in the morning he'd be just as quick to cheerlead it as a marvelous opportunity to retake the reigns of Europe blah blah blah...

I enjoyed his Ascent of Money but his other works do reek somewhat of varnished teak, brandy and cigars.

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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:31 pm 
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That 3 part series he made for Channel 4 was titled "China: Triumph And Turmoil"

What did you think about his China series and do you think it relevant to recent events in China.

(TBH this thread is about China and not Mr Ferguson's public persona, although as an aside I can see why it upsets some people. I would suggest that it's possibly a posture, that is not entirely unintentional. Better to have people talking about you (especially when your selling books) than not........)


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:17 pm 
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mr_anderson wrote:
london_irish wrote:
TBH, while this is going to be bad for dissident Chinese in the short term, and the Chinese people in the long term, its probably a good thing overall for western governments. It pretty much guarantees that China is going to go down a stagnant route, like the Soviet Union. Arguably, while the previous transitions in power were orchestrated to bring in "safe" leaders, the 10 year limit did at least mean a fresh turnover of new leaders and energy.
Now the loyalty of up and coming leaders will need to be to a man, not the party. This is probably going to cause a long, slow rundown of the country over time, and there will be much more pent up energy that will only be released when Xi dies, and which is more likely to be all directed internally rather than externally.
I can think of plenty of other countries with autocratic leaders that have gone this way and can't think offhand of one where this worked out well.


Never thought about that, but it's an excellent point.
Xi has gone down the Castro route.
Maduro is also trundling down this path (Most popular opposition, Henrique Capriles is barred from office while Leopoldo Lopez is under house arrest).

I'm stunned at the Chinese for deciding on this measure.
Although I'm wondering if they expect some major (internal) conflict as the economy cools and the citizens become restive and see a strong hand as the best counter ?


Thing is, I don't think the last few leaders were weak, though they came across as technocrats more than anything else. The next transfer of power would have been at the end of 2022 or so, so still some time off.
Am also stunned at this turn of events. History shows this doesn't end well. The Soviet Union didn't lash out in frustration during its Era of Stagnation, so lets hope China doesn't either when we get to it.
Anyway, this move has kicked off a backlash.
Quote:
The Communist party has painted the move - which experts say paves the way for Xi to become a dictator for life - as an expression of overwhelming popular support for China’s strongman leader. However, there has been widespread online push-back in China since it was announced on Sunday on the eve of an annual political congress in Beijing.
In a blog post, Victor Mair, a University of Pennsylvania China expert, said censors had taken “quick, drastic action” after “the internet was flooded with complaints”.

Quote:
Less clear is why censors took issue with the letter ‘N’. Mair speculated it was “probably out of fear on the part of the government that ‘N’ = ‘n terms in office’, where possibly n > 2”.
Charlie Smith, the alias of the co-founder of GreatFire.org, a group which helps users track and bypass Chinese censorship, said he found that explanation plausible.
“[Censors] probably determined it was sensitive and then moved to add that content to the blacklist so others would not be able to post something similar,” he said, noting that the seditious symbol had now been emancipated.
“I doubt that they actually put that much thought into it so sadly, the letter ‘N’ was a temporary victim of this rash decision.”


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 Post subject: Re: China on ‘Treadmill to Hell’ Amid Bubble.
PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:07 am 
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Quote:
China is ramping up its military spending to $224 billion per year

AS FAR as military might goes, China is not holding back. The rising superpower has announced a massive increase in its defence spending.


http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/ ... 776ccad766


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