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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:32 pm 
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Mantissa wrote:
I take it you didn't read my post. Here it is again with some emphasis.

Quote:
eircode is a delivery code, and such a cluster arrangement already exists. They’re called the CSO Small Areas and are widely used for statistical purposes like that. It’s just that people who don’t understand post codes like to shit on eircode for random things.

Really ?
Eircodes are not based on or related to CSO small areas
Like it was pointed out, there are not much use in terms of house prices outside of Dublin
Take the postcodce H91. The median price of a house is Galway city centre is total unrelated to a house is mayo or clare

Its all related to London poop im sure

For the hellof it
Quote:
Falling London house prices: is it a correction or crash?
Property prices in capital expected to decline until 2020 before stabilising

http://www.theweek.co.uk/london-house-prices
Great that they can see 2 years into the future :roll:

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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2018 9:52 pm 
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thatsthepoint.jpg

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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:05 pm 
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http://www.cityam.com/289934/foxtons-sw ... rket-slows
Quote:
Weakness in London hit the group's revenues.

However, Foxtons' share price was up 6.5 per cent in morning trading, with investors reassured by the future outlook.

Foxtons made a loss before tax of £2.5m, having made a £3.8m profit in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA dropped from £7.1m to £0.1m. The estate agent said the drop was driven by "lower revenue in the sales business and additional planned investments in people, brand and technology".

Group revenues fell by nine per cent.

Foxtons said there would be no interim dividend for this period.

Why it's interesting

The London-focused estate agent is one of the casualties of a slowing property in the capital, with sales down 23 per cent to £17.2m. Mortgage revenue through Alexander Hall was down three per cent to £4.1m, propped up by remortgaging.

However lettings were relatively resilient, with revenues down just one per cent to £31.7m.

What Foxtons said

Chief executive Nic Budden said: "The property sales market in London is undergoing a sustained period of very low activity levels with longer and less visible transaction outcomes, which clearly impacts our business. We continue, however, to achieve market leading share of listings giving us confidence that our service led, results based model remains highly relevant to consumers. Going forward we will continue to invest in our proposition to enable us to maintain our differentiation in the minds of buyers, sellers, landlords and tenants.

"Looking ahead, availability of mortgage finance, absorption of stamp duty costs, and the return of confidence to the market will, amongst other factors, determine the timing and rate of increased activity levels."

However, he insisted the fundamentals were still solid, saying London "remains an important global city".

He added: "We remain confident of our long term prospects."


"Less visible transaction outcomes" is a very interesting way of saying they don't like the trend.
Edit to add: It sounds like "less dry surfaces" as the ship sinks.

"Going forward"!!!! And we have a winner of the "Don't look here, look over there" Brian Cowan Award. :D

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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 1:59 pm 
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Foxtons is a good illustration of a general rule: investing in real estate agents is the worst way to bet on a property market. Canaries in the coal mine. Foxtons' share price is down over 80% since a peak in 2014. :oops:

So why the recent uptick, in face of all the bad news?

Lombard in the FT dismisses a series of possible answers and concludes that
Quote:
London property prices might have peaked — but a few investors seem to think Foxtons might have troughed.
The brave/blind investors turn out to be fund managers at
Quote:
Capital Group, Russell Investments, UBS, Legal & General, Dimensional and Janus Henderson.
Just the inscrutable workings of the invisible hand or could these fund managers have ulterior motives for proping up London's leading estate agents?

https://www.ft.com/content/a7592d26-93e ... 1e803ee64e


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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:17 pm 
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Maybe Foxton's own a lot of their office premises.


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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2018 2:44 pm 
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Braighni wrote:
Maybe Foxton's own a lot of their office premises.

No - if Foxtons had those kind of assets, their share price wouldn't have tanked in the past four years.


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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2018 4:03 pm 
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Countrywide, the UK's biggest group of estate agents, is also struggling - its shares are down 80% since June. Now it's trying to raise 140 M. Pounds in a discounted share issue but PwC warns there is a “material uncertainty” about its future if this share issue failed.

Estate Agents are canaries in the property coalmine because they are vulnerable to a fall in transaction levels, which happen long before prices fall substantially. In fact, as we saw during our bust, estate agents often push for price reductions in an effort to boost transactions.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/08/03/uk-ho ... -collapse/

And they face another fundamental threat: online agencies like Purplebricks (who have their own problems).
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44721667


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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:33 pm 
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House prices in London fell 0.7% in the year to June, the biggest fall since 2009, despite a statistical revision which resulted in price growth in February and April.

There is a mixed picture across London - e.g. Islington has bucked the trend - but prices in the prime areas have collapsed: Kensington & Chelsea is down 13.9% and the City of Westminster is down 12.1%. Prices in the City of London fell by 23.8%, almost one-quarter :shock: , but that is attributed to the small volume of transactions. :x


https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/prop ... 23106.html


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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:08 pm 
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5 years of London construction, 2013-2018

Image

Vertical ghost estates?

On a recent trip I was staying near the Shard and there were a bunch of apartment blocks with big banners on them with the usual blurb about luxury living etc.. anyway asking around I was told that blocks finished the previous year were still half sold.

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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:25 am 
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On a recent visit to a minor city in part of the former Soviet Union I saw a large billboard advertising London property. Desperation Stakes - the local oligarchs won't appreciate their bolthole being publicized to the local 99% (coincidentally, also the percentage by which London prices would have to fall before the average local could consider buying :mrgreen: )


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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:44 pm 
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That's an incredible photo. I hadn't appreciated the scale of development and impact on the skyline in just 5 years. Thanks for sending it catbear.

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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:41 pm 
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Just back in Ireland after over a decade in London.

Walked around the City this week. From the Shard to Liverpool Street it is construction on steroids. Canary Wharf the same.

I am hearing of discounts on apartments - as in the 750k 1 bed is not £650k.

Denial is strong. No one I spoke with could see Brexit having a material impact......

It is Dublin '06 - the run for the gates will start with the 35% Carney warning.

Sad times.


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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:35 am 
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Cheeky Offer wrote:
It is Dublin '06 - the run for the gates will start with the 35% Carney warning.
Sad times.


The Times is not buying Carney's warnings:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-no ... -5rd6fp25m

Quote:
Few believe the worst-case scenario outlined by the Bank of England governor this week, in which house prices fall 35 per cent over three years after a no-deal Brexit. However, parts of the property market are widely expected to suffer some unpleasant side-effects in the event of a chaotic exit.


The Times asked the "experts" i.e. a bunch of estate agents who all agreed it couldn't happen and preferred to whistle past the graveyard.

Quote:
Simon Tollit from Tedworth Property, a London agency, agrees: "Perhaps we should consider a best-case scenario for a change rather than the doom and gloom we are accustomed to hearing?"


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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:30 pm 
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Cheeky Offer wrote:

Sad times.


Well .....

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 Post subject: Re: London has popped.
PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:37 pm 
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Christ, "believe the worst case scenario". That's barely Metro-quality reporting.

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