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 Post subject: The price of Gold
PostPosted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 2:22 pm 
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I've noticed a certain correlation between posts predicting a fall in the price of houses in the English-speaking world and posts predicting a jump in the price of gold.

There's a certain logic to this: the "money supply" exists in the form of bank loans, such as for houses, and expands globally at anywhere between 7 and 15 per cent annually. This expansion of loans is hugely in excess of any actual economic growth occurring on Earth.

The theory is that, as gold is highly limited, its value should grow as it gets more scarce in paper money terms each year.

The counter argument is that gold's price did precisely the opposite from 1980 to 2000. Many argue that gold is simply a pretty jewellery fabrication material with a very few industrial uses. It's simply not worthwhile to use it as an absolute measure of worth any more, if it ever was.

Since 2000, its price has almost trebled, however.

So do we take that as meaning that gold's role as an alternative type of money to bank loans is back, or is this just a blip?

Who here wants gold?


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 2:25 pm 
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Peiople fleeing the wars in the middle East and Africa want gold.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2007 3:24 pm 
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gold does have some store of value as well as commerical/industrial uses.

Its relevance as a hedge against inflation can be a tad overblown and somewhat historical in significane....

One can see that over the 100 years, gold has more or less tracked inflation in the US market, indicating that as an investment it has little merit, but as a protection from inflation it can be quite handy, as well as a play on geo-political stabilty, as the correlation betweent he international politcal stabilty coefficent (strangely enough they claim to have one of these!!) and the price of gold are strongly negatively correlated.

at the moment, asset classes such as equities and property are high risk and as such gold is a good play to accrete in value relative to these stock, but not massively and it is extremely volatile...so tread carefully...


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2007 4:07 pm 
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Gold may (may) be a good investment in these times, but most of those I see discussing gold as an investment seem to me to offer up very superficial reasons for doing so. It ranges from those who buy a small sum of gold (or mining stocks) as part of balancing a portfolio, to those in Idaho who stack gold alongside the tin cans and ammunition in their nuclear proof bunkers.

Is it a currency or a commodity? It's a mix of both - as an investor I can easily work out the value as a commodity (supply vs demand), but as an investor I can't work out the currency value as it seems to be based entirely on sentiment. Maybe if I was a psychologist.

So to cut a long story short, yes it may be worth investing in but unless you really know what you're doing I would avoid investing large amounts in it.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 9:53 am 
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As it happens I do have krugerrands in a safe deposit box in London. Bought 'em at USD530 and they've grown just over 20% since then.

I personally buy into the theory that, as gold is a massively limited commodity and will continue to be heavily used in jewellery in addition to its currency value, the up move will be with us for a long time.

Ultimately, gold will not even have properly started to enter a bull phase until it reaches its 1980 all-time high of $800. Of course, that would mean about $2000 to account for inflation in the last 27 years.

It was 250 in 1999, 400 in 2003 and 650 now, so I feel it's on course


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 11:37 am 
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rock3r wrote:
As it happens I do have krugerrands in a safe deposit box in London. Bought 'em at USD530 and they've grown just over 20% since then.

I personally buy into the theory that, as gold is a massively limited commodity and will continue to be heavily used in jewellery in addition to its currency value, the up move will be with us for a long time.

Ultimately, gold will not even have properly started to enter a bull phase until it reaches its 1980 all-time high of $800. Of course, that would mean about $2000 to account for inflation in the last 27 years.

It was 250 in 1999, 400 in 2003 and 650 now, so I feel it's on course


thats optimistic,

since the breakdown of the bretton woods in 1971, gold has followed inflation.

Some years up and some down.

Its only now catching up with the infaltion adjusted price from the early 1970's, so no money on it yet.

Bear in mind its falling demand as a "jewelry" item due to more desireable materials currently available and the fact that jewelry isn't exaclty recession proof...


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 11:55 am 
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As far as I'm aware it's being used up in jewellery and electronics at a faster rate than it's being mined. Therefore, like oil (which is in a similar position re: use vs new production) it's attracting a scarcity bonus.

Look at how the futures markets see it:

http://quotes.tradingcharts.com/

Industrial metals like copper and aluminium fall in value as you look forward to 2011.

Yet gold, which the anti-gold investors state is simply another metal rather than a semi-currency, is being sold forward to 2011 for over $800.

Seems reasonably bullish to me.

Also, I'd have to say your facts are faulty: gold hasn't tracked inflation.

From 1980 to 2000, gold was flat, even though the value of money collapsed so much that $10 in 2000 would only buy what $3 would get in 1980.

It broke out of that negative trading range after it hit rock bottom in 1999.

The theory is that central banks spent the period 1980-1995 basically dumping gold on to the private market, to decouple paper currency values from gold reserves, thus allowing paper currency values to appreciate without having to mine and refine gold.

Incidentally, the annual average price of gold in 1980 was $612, so if you like, gold has just reached its all-time high, as the 52-week average is above $620.

I think the futures markets are underestimating gold's likely 2011 value, and that $1000 is a more realistic measure, but $1800 would be a reasonable inflation adjustment.

However, it's likely that tons of investors like me will take their profits at the 1K mark and thus slow the upward move.

Some people will come out of this property boom very rich indeed, as they will have sold, luckily or cleverly, at the right time.

I think they'll want a little gold to put that dosh in.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 1:05 pm 
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cant' upload a graph.

but,
1913 gold was 20.67., this adjusted for inflation is 420.51

2005 market price was 444.47.


no increase

from 1971 onwards gold has been over and above its infation adj price, dropping back in 1996 where it has remained under as world economy has been bullish.

on recently breached this...

also
http://www.lbma.org.uk/2007gofo.htm

the gofo rates are sub libor, indicating a decreased yield on holding...
therre has been alot of speculation on the role some of the central banks have been playing with regard to gold and inflation...check out google...

commodities markets esp on gold is so open to makret manipulation, esp in the futures, and this is why very few touch it....cos some of the big boys can bounce the market as they so choose.


Results from a daily closing mkt mid rates regression is

3rd Equation: Monthly Data 1984 – present:
The equation obtained was
_CHANGEGOLDDIFFERENCED = 1.54464053*DIFFINFLATIONRATE(-4) - 1.939747823*DIFFINFLATIONRATE(-5) + 0.6713185798*_PERCHANGEM1 + 0.1579450576*_CHANGEGOLDDIFFERENCED(-1) - 0.159267424*_CHANGEGOLDDIFFERENCED(-2) + 0.0001065041233


where the lagged inflation data is monthly.
[/img]


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Mar 20, 2007 4:54 pm 
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I seem to recall that in 1913 coal miners were paid at a rate of 23c/hour, which was a good rate at the time (although the miners saw very little of that money after deductions). With your inflation measure that comes to the illegally low wage of $4.60/hour

I think that, to call anything a "good wage" in 2007, you'd have to be making at least triple the US minimum wage of $5.15.

So, taking real inflation in the costs of living into account, we're looking at a proce rise in the 60x range at least, so that's bring gold to around $1300

Or we could split the difference between your measure and mine, call a "good wage" the pittance of $10.30 an hour and that should lead to a price around 40X 1913 price or $826.8.

I see some sites on google's cache showing grocery prices in 1913, porterhouse steaks for 35 cents US, for example.

A 40x rise in that approximates to what I paid for a (raw) porterhouse steak last week.

Edit: OK I know that this is cheesier than Edam, but gold finished the day at a 3-week high over $40 above the 1980 average. Yes, I know that means less than the dustmites under my left little finger, i'm not stoopid!


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 Post subject: Gold price jumps on bad US housing data
PostPosted: Mon Mar 26, 2007 3:44 pm 
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Gold spiked heavily this Monday morning, wiping out Friday's fall. Its 14-day moving average is upward. It is up 18% year to date. The forward delivery price for june 2007 is $669.50 per oz, up $6.


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