Board index » The IRISH PROPERTY BUBBLE » The Central Bank

Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 418 posts ]  [Go to page]   1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 42  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 11:36 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Jul 6, 2006
Posts: 2021
The national debt was 50 bn before the Quinn/Anglo/ Fitzpatrick bailout

After the farce in anglo brian lucey is saying

“I would suspect that as time has gone on it has become abundantly clear that there are so many unexploded land mines in Anglo that the government had to throw something on it,”

"Unfortunately they have thrown the Irish economy onto these exploding bombs ... So, we have seen as a minimum I think a doubling of the national debt as a consequence of this"


And we havent gone near Irish Nationwide, BOI, AIB yet :evil:

So say the national debt hits 100bn pretty shortly thats a drain of at least5-6bn in interest per year. Are we going to have to borrow to pay the interest? That sounds like default

that bloody guarantee is the end of us

of course as we all part of the knowledge economy now after primetime on weds and have 5 loaves and 2 fishes we are fine

_________________
Join me and together we will rule the galaxy as father and son


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 11:41 am 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: Jan 1, 1970
Posts: 23258
Please Note: This is now the defacto thread for all things relating to the National Debt. Carry on :? .

_________________
Follow The Pin - https://twitter.com/dailypinster

"Politicians are always realistically maneuvering for the next election. They are obsolete as fundamental problem-solvers." - Buckminster Fuller

"I was comfortable with a couple of banks being married today, instead i wake up and find I'm married to the banks." - Catbear

Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 11:44 am 
Offline
Property Magnate
User avatar

Joined: Mar 8, 2007
Posts: 714
lord vader wrote:
of course as we all part of the knowledge economy now after primetime on weds and have 5 loaves and 2 fishes we are fine


Ah sure it'll be grand, Steorn has that invention for free energy in the pipeline.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 11:45 am 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Jun 22, 2006
Posts: 2918
Image


Debt to GDP ratio was 41% last year and the government estimate (according to The Guardian) 53% this year.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 12:03 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Feb 14, 2008
Posts: 1925
Image

Not a big fan of relating things to Irish GDP (or even GNP).


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 12:18 pm 
Offline
IMF'd

Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31890
Location: Tullamore
I don't understand how all the liabilities of Anglo will not be considered part of the national debt, that is, why would all 110 bn of liabilities not now be national debt?

Consider, 50 bn is depositors money and 20 bn is institutional deposits. If any of these people want their money back, Anglo (and so now the government) has to pony up.

Add to this the NAO (National Audit Office) in the UK ruled that all Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley's liabilities had to be added to the UK national debt.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 12:35 pm 
Offline
Private Tenant

Joined: Jan 31, 2007
Posts: 28
Location: Galway
During the American Depression of the '30s, US GDP fell from approx. 103.6 Billion to approx. 56.4 billion that's over 45% of a fall. Our ratios are going to look horrendous if we have falls in GDP of that scale (Which I suppose is not inconceivable).


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 12:55 pm 
Offline
IMF'd

Joined: Sep 13, 2007
Posts: 31890
Location: Tullamore
Constantin lets fly:
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2009/ ... tings.html
Quote:
Next stop for the country? An honest reappraisal of our sovereign debt ratings to reflect the fact that our actual debt ratio to committed obligations under the banks guarantee and recapitalization schemes is about 1:5, implying that Ireland’s own bonds cannot be traded at the prices far off the banks bond levels.

Of course, not willing to buy into S&P’s delirious review that left Ireland’s sovereign rating at AAA and the Fitch’s yesterday’s failure to mention the need for downgrading Irish sovereign debt, the markets have already started the repricing process. Our five-year credit default swaps are now quoted at a 250bps, roughly 66bps above Monday levels.

We are now at par with Greece, while enjoying a much more rapid deterioration in the economy and public finances, implying our debt rating should be at or below their A-/A-2 range.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 1:07 pm 
Offline
Nationalised
User avatar

Joined: May 3, 2007
Posts: 12101
Thanks to our nationalisation of the zombie Anglo Irish the cost of issuing NEW debt is now 2% ( 200 basis points) more than German debt . The spread was about 20 basis points a year ago and 69 bp in October .

Two years ago it was 3bp . We have had the same triple A rating as Germany for quite some time .

You will see an interesting analysis of the early part of this spread widening here ( with charts and tables even)

http://cib.natixis.com/flushdoc.aspx?id=43047

Even GREECE can issue cheaper debt that we can :(

_________________
SEO Ireland. SEO Dublin.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Fri Jan 16, 2009 1:39 pm 
Offline
Under CAB Investigation

Joined: Nov 21, 2008
Posts: 1841
yoganmahew wrote:
Constantin lets fly:
http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2009/ ... tings.html
Quote:
Next stop for the country? An honest reappraisal of our sovereign debt ratings to reflect the fact that our actual debt ratio to committed obligations under the banks guarantee and recapitalization schemes is about 1:5, implying that Ireland’s own bonds cannot be traded at the prices far off the banks bond levels.

Of course, not willing to buy into S&P’s delirious review that left Ireland’s sovereign rating at AAA and the Fitch’s yesterday’s failure to mention the need for downgrading Irish sovereign debt, the markets have already started the repricing process. Our five-year credit default swaps are now quoted at a 250bps, roughly 66bps above Monday levels.

We are now at par with Greece, while enjoying a much more rapid deterioration in the economy and public finances, implying our debt rating should be at or below their A-/A-2 range.


Pity Lenihan doest listen to any advice from anyone....


Top
 Profile  
 



Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 418 posts ]  [Go to page]   1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 42  Next

    Board index » The IRISH PROPERTY BUBBLE » The Central Bank

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Jump to:  

Follow, Retweet @dailypinster



Pyramid Built, Is Better Built! - Latest Property Discussions www.thepropertypin.com