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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Mon Sep 03, 2018 3:44 pm 
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TheJackal wrote:
Irish public debt third highest in the developed world

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0 ... t-deficit/

Quote:
Speaking on Today with Sean O'Rourke, Minister Donohoe said the public debt currently stands at around €201 billion.

On a per capita basis, the country's public debt is the third highest in the developed world and amounts to €42,000 for every person resident in the State.


205 billion according to this but god only knows which is more accurate, I'd probably have more faith in a random internet site than a government minister

https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:49 pm 
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NegativeEquity wrote:
205 billion according to this but god only knows which is more accurate, I'd probably have more faith in a random internet site than a government minister

https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland


What's 4 Billion between Central Bankers? A rounding error. And most of this debt is not banking related. It's the accumulation of decades of deficit spending.

The government can increase social spending now mainly because the cost of debt servicing has been cut in half, thanks to the ECB (not that anyone in Ireland will say go raibh maith agaibh).

That dynamic is about to be reversed and we will feel the pinch. Paschal Donohoe is absolutely right to remind people of this reality but everyone else around the Cabinet table wants more spending on their own projects.

Of course, if we were the US of A we could just keep printing dollars.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 12:29 pm 
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Lefournier3 wrote:
NegativeEquity wrote:
205 billion according to this but god only knows which is more accurate, I'd probably have more faith in a random internet site than a government minister

https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland


What's 4 Billion between Central Bankers? A rounding error. And most of this debt is not banking related. It's the accumulation of decades of deficit spending.

The government can increase social spending now mainly because the cost of debt servicing has been cut in half, thanks to the ECB (not that anyone in Ireland will say go raibh maith agaibh).

That dynamic is about to be reversed and we will feel the pinch. Paschal Donohoe is absolutely right to remind people of this reality but everyone else around the Cabinet table wants more spending on their own projects.

Of course, if we were the US of A we could just keep printing dollars.


Ireland is a state of Europe effectively.
No difference.
The EU has been printing, just like US of A.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Wed Sep 05, 2018 3:23 pm 
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It has been 'around' €200bn for 4 years or even 5 years already, not going up or down. The economy has grown by around 20% in that time excluding the leprechaun leap pf 25% in 2015.

As Ireland will only be a heavy issuer of debt (all of it replacing old debt) for the next 18 months all these interest rates gotta do is stay well down until around March 2020. So far things look OK.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:26 pm 
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E92 335i wrote:
Lefournier3 wrote:
NegativeEquity wrote:
205 billion according to this but god only knows which is more accurate, I'd probably have more faith in a random internet site than a government minister

https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland


What's 4 Billion between Central Bankers? A rounding error. And most of this debt is not banking related. It's the accumulation of decades of deficit spending.

The government can increase social spending now mainly because the cost of debt servicing has been cut in half, thanks to the ECB (not that anyone in Ireland will say go raibh maith agaibh).

That dynamic is about to be reversed and we will feel the pinch. Paschal Donohoe is absolutely right to remind people of this reality but everyone else around the Cabinet table wants more spending on their own projects.

Of course, if we were the US of A we could just keep printing dollars.


Ireland is a state of Europe effectively.
No difference.
The EU has been printing, just like US of A.


The ECB started QE only when it looked like the Euro would collapse i.e. in 2012. They didn't do QE for Greece or Ireland, no more than the Fed will bail out Illinois or Arkansas. The NTMA is doing its best to lock in the current near-zero rates but the tide is turning. Remember that time we told everyone we were fully funded for the next 18 months? Two weeks later, the Troika were in Dublin. :x

http://www.india.com/business/us-dollar ... e-3296865/


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:20 pm 
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Chance to cut debt is being squandered
by Colm McCarthy
https://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/colm-mccarthy/chance-to-cut-debt-is-being-squandered-37296984.html

Quote:
Despite heavy indebtedness of both State and households, the Government plans to run another budget deficit next year - even though it expects 2019 to be the seventh straight year of a vigorous economic expansion. Meanwhile it professes commitment to "budget balance over the cycle" and ministerial speeches are sprinkled with genuflections to Prudence, the current goddess of economic management.

If seven years of expansion and clear evidence of tight capacity are not enough to propel the budget into surplus, how long precisely is the cycle over which surpluses and deficits are to balance out? Ten years, or 20?


article paywalled


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:06 pm 
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NegativeEquity wrote:
TheJackal wrote:
Irish public debt third highest in the developed world

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0 ... t-deficit/

Quote:
Speaking on Today with Sean O'Rourke, Minister Donohoe said the public debt currently stands at around €201 billion.

On a per capita basis, the country's public debt is the third highest in the developed world and amounts to €42,000 for every person resident in the State.


205 billion according to this but god only knows which is more accurate, I'd probably have more faith in a random internet site than a government minister

https://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/ireland



At a guess the difference could be gross and net debt, i.e. excluding cash and cash equivalents

http://www.ntma.ie/business-areas/fundi ... ical-debt/


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:29 pm 
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More likely an interest payment.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:08 pm 
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The national debt clock page is just an estimate.

From the site
Quote:
We obtain the latest data regarding the country’s national debt and the 10 year average interest rate they pay on it.
Using these two figures we can then calculate how much the debt increases per year and subsequently per second.
We then work out the time difference between when the data was obtained and when the debt clock is being viewed by a visitor

Clearly that's not the way the national debt changes in reality.


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:27 pm 
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sorehead wrote:
Clearly that's not the way the national debt changes in reality.

Tomorrow they will auction a 10 year 0.9% Treasury Bond 2028 , c€1.2bn.

I predict bids for this paper will cover this issue around 1.8 to 2.5 times. Plenty of demand in other words.

Sometime next year, around June or so, they will retire a c.5-10 year issue on which the interest payable is 5% or so. All the 2018 redemptions were funded by April this year. The blended interest rate is now below 3% on the total pile , EG under €6bn annual servicing, that was nearer €8bn some time ago.

The blended interest rate will drop in the next 2 years and will then stabilise long term around 2.2-2.4%

The blended interest rate on debt issued in 2018 only will end up around 1%.

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:01 pm 
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Quote:
Ireland has the highest debt per capita of any country in the euro zone. We owe €42,800 per head, more than second-placed Belgium (€40,048) and far more than either Italy (€37,849); Greece (€30,417) or Spain (€25,081). And when you look outside of the euro zone, we’re not too hot either, just lagging the US (€54,000 ) and Japan (€83,000).

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.3625800


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:40 am 
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Lefournier3 wrote:
Quote:
Ireland has the highest debt per capita of any country in the euro zone. We owe €42,800 per head, more than second-placed Belgium (€40,048) and far more than either Italy (€37,849); Greece (€30,417) or Spain (€25,081). And when you look outside of the euro zone, we’re not too hot either, just lagging the US (€54,000 ) and Japan (€83,000).

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.3625800


Yes but we have strong fundamentals XX

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2018 3:30 pm 
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NegativeEquity wrote:
Lefournier3 wrote:
Quote:
Ireland has the highest debt per capita of any country in the euro zone. We owe €42,800 per head, more than second-placed Belgium (€40,048) and far more than either Italy (€37,849); Greece (€30,417) or Spain (€25,081). And when you look outside of the euro zone, we’re not too hot either, just lagging the US (€54,000 ) and Japan (€83,000).

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/eco ... -1.3625800


Yes but we have strong fundamentals XX


Ireland's not even in the top 20 in GDP terms the US No.1 with Japan No.3 (formerly No.2 until out-clipped by China which has the geographical and population size advantage). We seem to feature in the mid 30's or mid 40's depending on what charts you look at. This kind of well "we're not as bad as them so it could be worse", means in real terms to my way of seeing things, yea it's worse. So yea fundamentally speaking... XX

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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:35 am 
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The Department of Finance 2018 annual report on Ireland public debt uses modified GNI for the first time and it sends a strong warning about the risks to our debt sustainability.

Ireland's GDP overstates the capacity of our government to service our debt i.e. to run a primary surplus large enough to meet our debt obligations. We simply can't increase the level of tax that we collect from the multinationals who contribute so much to our GDP. The Economist EIU reports today that it is unclear whether the necessary measures are politically feasible.

http://merrionstreet.ie/en/News-Room/Re ... _2018.html


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 Post subject: Re: The National Debt
PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:02 am 
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NegativeEquity wrote:
Yes but we have strong fundamentals XX


The fundamentals certainly sound strong, but only because the CB is determined to boost inflatulation


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